Solar stocks extended their declines. At the time of writing, TRIUMPH NEW EN (01108) fell 7.57% to HK$4.03; XINYI SOLAR (00968) dropped 5.01% to HK$3.41; FLAT GLASS (06865) declined 4.03% to HK$11.42; XINTE ENERGY (01799) was down 2.65% to HK$7.72. According to statistics based on disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, among 32 listed solar companies that have issued guidance, 23 are expecting losses, accounting for over 70%. Notably, Tongwei Co., Ltd. projected its 2025 net loss to be in the range of 9 billion to 10 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 7.039 billion yuan in the same period last year. Losses in the main solar industry chain have intensified significantly, primarily due to a combination of factors including weak end-demand, phased overcapacity, and suppressed product prices. It is worth noting that Elon Musk recently expressed strong support for space-based solar power. Industry insiders believe the development path for space-based solar power carries high uncertainty and is unlikely to achieve large-scale commercial application in the short to medium term, thus unable to absorb the current overcapacity in ground-based solar. The key for the industry to emerge from the downturn still lies in tangible supply-side consolidation, a rebalancing of supply and demand, and the repair of balance sheets.
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