Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has upended global energy markets, disrupting the supply of approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil per day and 20% of liquefied natural gas. Since the conflict escalated in late February, Brent crude prices have surged over 50%, reaching around $110 per barrel, while nearly $4 trillion in market value has been erased from U.S. stock markets. While some analysts initially viewed Russia as the primary beneficiary, as the conflict drove up oil prices, diverted Western attention from the war in Ukraine, and bolstered Moscow's diplomatic standing among Global South nations, the Trump administration's temporary easing of sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil even sparked bipartisan criticism.
However, Africa's energy giants may ultimately emerge as the long-term winners of this conflict. Current supply disruptions have provided African energy producers with a unique structural advantage, largely due to their geographical distance from the conflict zone. Major African energy players, including Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Gabon, Mozambique, Namibia, and Tanzania, are increasingly seen as lower-risk alternatives to Middle Eastern suppliers. Compared to shipments passing through high-risk routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, European and Asian buyers now favor African supplies for their lower insurance costs and more predictable delivery schedules.
Africa's burgeoning liquefied natural gas sector shows the most promising outlook. The continent's total LNG export capacity is projected to increase from approximately 80 million tons per annum in 2025 to over 175 million tons by 2040, positioning Africa as a key global LNG supplier. Sub-Saharan Africa's LNG exports are expected to grow 175% by 2034, rising from 30.9 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 44.5 billion cubic meters. This surge will be driven by the development of major projects in countries including Mozambique, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Cameroon.
Last year, French energy major TotalEnergies formally resumed work on its $20 billion Mozambique LNG project in Afungi, Cabo Delgado province, after a five-year suspension due to security concerns. The facility, with a capacity exceeding 13 million tons per annum, is scheduled for first production in 2029. Italian company Eni is advancing the multi-phase development of the "super-giant" Coral gas field in the Rovuma Basin offshore Mozambique, deploying floating LNG technology to process gas for export. The Coral South FLNG project, with a capacity of 3.4 million tons per annum, began production in 2022, while the Coral North project, with 3.5 million tons per annum capacity, reached a final investment decision in 2025 and is expected to start production in 2028.
Meanwhile, U.S. energy major ExxonMobil is leading the development of the $30 billion Rovuma LNG onshore project in Mozambique's Area 4, holding a 25% stake alongside partners Eni (25%), China National Petroleum Corporation (20%), Korea Gas Corporation (10%), and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (20%). The Rovuma LNG project involves onshore liquefaction trains supplied by offshore gas fields, with a total capacity of 18 million tons per annum. After security improvements, the project recently lifted its force majeure status, with a final investment decision expected this year and production targeted for around 2030-2031.
The persistent global energy crisis is also helping accelerate some long-delayed African energy projects, including the $20 billion Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, designed to transport Nigerian gas through Niger and Algeria to Europe. Last month, Algeria and Niger announced they would resume construction of the pipeline in March, following nearly a year of diplomatic stalemate. The project has moved from decades of conceptual planning to active construction, primarily due to Europe's urgent need to diversify its energy sources away from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. Algerian state-owned energy giant Sonatrach is leading construction and technical supervision, with approximately 60% (2,400 km) of the 4,128-km pipeline already completed or in advanced stages within Nigeria and Algeria. The pipeline aims to deliver 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Nigeria to Europe by 2027, providing a crucial alternative to Russian supplies. Beyond energy, the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline is part of a broader "West Africa-North Africa" corridor intended to promote regional economic integration and monetize Nigeria's vast gas reserves exceeding 200 trillion cubic feet.
The European Union has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian gas, cutting imports from approximately 155 billion cubic meters in 2021 to an estimated 30 billion cubic meters annually by 2025. Russian gas now accounts for about 13% of EU imports, including pipeline gas to countries like Hungary and Slovakia, and LNG supplies to Belgium, France, and other European nations.
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