The economic performance data for April has been released, with the industrial sector remaining a primary driver of growth. On May 18th, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to April, the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year. A notable highlight is that the value-added of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.7% year-on-year, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 12.6%, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.1 and 7.0 percentage points respectively. For the month of April alone, the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.1% year-on-year and 0.05% month-on-month. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April stood at 50.3%, and the Production and Business Activity Expectations Index reached 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.
It was noted that despite the ongoing impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, increased volatility in international energy markets, and disruptions to global industrial and supply chains, China's industrial production has maintained overall stability. This is attributed to a complete industrial system, strong supporting capabilities, and support from the domestic energy transition towards greener alternatives. The industrial sector continues to demonstrate a trend of transformation and upgrading, releasing innovation-driven vitality and showcasing strong resilience.
Looking ahead to May, the relatively weak domestic demand is expected to persist, and the dampening effect of rising costs on production in certain sectors is likely to become more pronounced. Consequently, industrial production growth may still face some downward pressure. However, considering that exports are expected to maintain relatively rapid growth and production in sectors representing new quality productive forces, such as high-tech manufacturing, is anticipated to continue its fast growth momentum, the year-on-year growth rate is projected to be around 4.0%.
Corporate confidence has improved. Although industrial production growth experienced some fluctuations in April, such variations are considered normal month-to-month volatility. On a cumulative basis, from January to April, the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.6%, maintaining a stable and relatively rapid growth trend. Despite the slowdown in industrial value-added growth in April due to cost transmission effects from international geopolitical conflicts, the strategic value of energy security and the green transition has become more prominent during this process.
Data indicates sustained positive momentum in China's equipment manufacturing. In April, the value-added of equipment manufacturing enterprises above the designated size increased by 8.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, contributing 74.5% to the overall growth of industrial enterprises above the designated size. By sector, the competitiveness of the electronics and automotive industries continues to improve, establishing them as significant advantageous sectors within equipment manufacturing. The value-added of these two industries grew by 15.6% and 9.2% respectively. In the first four months, China's integrated circuit exports increased by 78.3%, while electric vehicle exports grew by over 60%.
Simultaneously, industrial optimization and upgrading are progressing, with industrial development steadily advancing towards the mid-to-high end. In April, the value-added of high-tech manufacturing enterprises above the designated size increased by 12.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and significantly outpacing the overall industrial growth rate. The growth rate for the manufacturing of computers, communication, and other electronic equipment further accelerated. Specifically, the manufacturing of aerospace vehicles and equipment, and the manufacturing of electronic and communication equipment increased by 15.4% and 17.4% respectively. The output of robot reducers and industrial robots grew by 38.3% and 15.1% respectively.
A notable point is that the growth of new drivers is also influencing the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. In April, the manufacturing of bio-based materials increased by 19.5% year-on-year, contributing 65.6% to the growth of the chemical fiber industry. Benefiting from these positive factors, corporate expectations have improved. The Manufacturing PMI for April was 50.3%, remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months. The Production and Business Activity Expectations Index within manufacturing reached 54.5%, showing a continuous increase since the beginning of the year.
Looking forward, as the external trade environment stabilizes, confidence in manufacturing investment, primarily driven by private investment, is expected to recover, indicating potential for acceleration in manufacturing investment. Furthermore, high-tech investment will continue to receive support from fiscal, financial, and industrial policies. Coupled with the favorable market environment where products in high-tech manufacturing sectors like chips, robots, and lithium-ion batteries experience strong supply and demand and significant profit improvements, these factors are expected to drive relatively rapid growth in related investment areas, thereby providing strong impetus to overall manufacturing investment.
However, vigilance is still required regarding the further manifestation of international input effects. Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices, leading to significant price increases in domestic industrial chains such as oil and gas extraction, petroleum processing, and chemical raw materials. Concurrently, the divergence between upstream and downstream sectors persists. Prices for upstream energy and raw materials have risen notably, while prices for downstream consumer goods remain weak, indicating insufficient recovery in terminal consumption and difficulties in cost transmission.
It was also noted that recent disruptions in international crude oil supply have led to rising oil prices, which are gradually transmitting to the domestic industrial chain through cost channels. Petroleum-related industries are facing considerable pressure from rising costs. With weak downstream demand making it difficult to effectively pass on cost pressures, production in these sectors has been somewhat affected. Industry data for April shows that continued fluctuations in international crude oil prices drove up prices in domestic petroleum-related industries. Prices in the extraction of petroleum and natural gas increased by 28.6% year-on-year, processing of petroleum, coal, and other fuels rose by 14.2%, and manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemical products increased by 8.9%.
Nevertheless, price increases have also benefited some enterprises. Currently, the transformation of the manufacturing sector towards high-end, intelligent, and green development is accelerating. The deep integration of artificial intelligence across various fields and the rapid growth in computing power demand are driving price recoveries in sectors like electronics, non-ferrous metals, and basic components. The price recovery in these industries reflects the不断增强的支撑引领作用 of new economic drivers and new momentum. The growth of new momentum not only helps stimulate production expansion and demand growth in related fields but also provides positive support for product price recovery and improvement in corporate profits.
Looking ahead, numerous external uncertainties and unpredictable factors remain. The trajectory of international commodity prices is still uncertain, and the impact on domestic industrial product prices and corporate production and operations requires further observation and analysis.
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