As the Spring Festival approaches, the intensive disclosure period for the fourth-quarter reports of public funds for 2025 has commenced. On January 22, the much-anticipated fourth-quarter holdings and investment views of fund manager Zhang Kun, who manages four funds including E Fund Blue Chip Select, were simultaneously released. Data shows that Zhang Kun's assets under management saw a significant decline in the fourth quarter, decreasing overall by 8.161 billion yuan to 48.383 billion yuan. The flagship product, E Fund Blue Chip Select Mixed Fund, experienced the most pronounced contraction, shrinking by 6.477 billion yuan in the quarter alone, with its latest scale standing at 31.021 billion yuan.
In terms of the market's most closely watched performance metrics, Zhang Kun's representative fund, E Fund Blue Chip Select Mixed, faced considerable pressure in the fourth quarter. Data indicates the fund's net asset value fell by 8.93% in the quarter, significantly underperforming the peer group average decline of -1.54% and ranking in the bottom quartile among similar products.
Extending the timeline reveals ongoing challenges for the fund's performance. Over the past year, the fund achieved a return of 11.56%, which not only fell far short of the 41.32% average return for partial equity hybrid funds but also lagged behind the CSI 300 Index's gain of 23.23%. Over a three-year horizon, the fund's net value has cumulatively declined by 19.93%, while the average peer product rose by 19.81% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 12.95% over the same period. According to the industry's standard quartile ranking system, the fund's performance has been marked as "subpar" across several key periods, including the past one, two, and three years.
Despite facing performance headwinds, Zhang Kun's investment operations continued his signature style of "high equity allocation, focused on industry leaders." Fourth-quarter report data shows that E Fund Blue Chip Select maintained a high equity position above 94%, continuing its consistent strategy of high portfolio turnover. The structure of the top ten holdings remained largely stable, with Tencent Holdings and Kweichow Moutai firmly holding the top positions, while Wuliangye's ranking notably improved from seventh to third place, indicating a heightened focus on this particular asset.
However, Zhang Kun's approach is not entirely static. He noted in the quarterly report adjustments to the structure of holdings within sectors like pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and technology. Specific changes reveal a slight increase in his position in Alibaba-W, with the number of shares held rising by 3.22%. In contrast, significant reductions were made to holdings in JD Health and Focus Media, with share counts decreasing by 45.52% and 20.56%, respectively. Overall, his major holdings remain highly concentrated in leading companies within their industries that possess clear business models and deep competitive moats.
Beyond the subtle portfolio adjustments, the highlight of Zhang Kun's report was a systematic, nearly one-thousand-word exposition detailing his deep thoughts on the current macroeconomic and market environment, serving as a key feature. He began by highlighting policy direction, emphasizing that the Central Economic Work Conference had placed "vigorously boosting consumption" as the top priority for 2026's key tasks. Quoting economist Keynes's classic assertion that "consumption is the sole end and object of all economic activity," he laid the groundwork for his long-term investment logic focused on domestic demand-oriented companies.
Addressing the recent weakness in consumption data, Zhang Kun candidly admitted: "If judged by Charlie Munger's standard of 'fishing where the fish are,' (export-oriented enterprises) have more closely met this standard over the past three years. However, we do not believe this represents the norm in the long run." To substantiate this core viewpoint, Zhang Kun conducted a rigorous analysis from both "incremental" and "existing stock" perspectives.
First, from an incremental perspective, he cited the national "16th Five-Year Plan," pointing out that China's goal of reaching the level of a medium-developed country by 2035 implies immense growth potential. Through calculations, he indicated that even measured against the current lowest threshold for a developed country (Latvia, with a per capita GDP of $23,400), China's per capita GDP would need to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 5.27% over the next decade, significantly outpacing global average growth. He further referenced the development trajectories of East Asian economies like Japan and South Korea, suggesting that China's growth ceiling is far from being reached.
Second, from an existing stock perspective, he analyzed how real estate market adjustments have suppressed household wealth and consumption willingness but offered a crucial judgment: "Considering the low risk-free interest rate level, potential policy support, and the decline in new construction starts, the decline in housing prices in major cities is expected to be nearing its end." This implies that the "wealth shrinkage effect," which has restrained consumption in recent years, is likely to diminish in the future.
Based on this analysis, Zhang Kun concluded: "Over the next decade, both the actual living standards of ordinary people and the level of social security will see significant improvement." Consequently, he anticipates a shift in market perception: "At some point, the market will realize that investing in companies focused on the domestic market is also 'fishing where the fish are.'"
Responding to pointed market skepticism questioning whether the "moat remains, but is the city still there?" for his heavily weighted stocks, Zhang Kun asserted in response: "We believe the city has always been there; for China, with its endowments, progressing towards a developed country status is not an unexpected outcome, and the difficulties are merely temporary." He added, "The pricing offered by 'Mr. Market' has already made some high-quality companies appear very attractive even for privatization scenarios, presenting excellent opportunities for long-term investors."
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