National Bureau of Statistics data released on January 19 reveals China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed 140 trillion yuan for the first time in 2025, achieving the year's growth target with a 5% expansion rate. The dual pillars of consumption and industrial production accelerated, with the consumer market exceeding 50 trillion yuan and manufacturing value-added reaching 34.7 trillion yuan, positioning China to maintain its global manufacturing leadership. "Despite facing pressures, China's economy advanced with improved quality and innovative growth in 2025, successfully meeting major targets and demonstrating strong resilience and vitality, thereby laying a solid foundation for this year's economic development," stated National Bureau of Statistics Commissioner Kang Yi at a State Council Information Office press conference on January 19.
Commissioner Kang emphasized that understanding China's economy requires a comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective. Through the economic "prism" examining scale versus quality, domestic versus international factors, and current conditions versus future trends, it becomes evident that China's economy has not only achieved a leap in scale but also structural optimization and new growth drivers; domestic demand has unleashed vitality while external demand has shown resilience; the "shape" of stable growth continues, with a positive "momentum" expected to persist into 2026.
Amid complex changes in the domestic and international economic environment, 2025 witnessed stable economic growth. Official data shows the full-year GDP reached 140.1879 trillion yuan, representing a 5.0% increase over 2024 calculated at constant prices. "Reaching 140 trillion yuan in economic output is a remarkable achievement, fully demonstrating the steady progress, pressure-resistant resilience, and vitality for innovation and quality improvement of China's economy," Kang Yi stated at the January 19 press conference.
"China not only successfully achieved the annual growth target set at the beginning of 2025 but also realized an organic unity of stabilizing growth and adjusting structure, reflecting the precision of policy regulation and the resilience of the economic system," said Cheng Shi, Chief Economist at ICBC International, in an interview.
Beyond aggregate growth, economic restructuring and optimization progressed steadily, with robust strides in high-quality development: the value-added of high-tech manufacturing above designated size accounted for 17.1% of total industrial value-added, final consumption expenditure contributed over 50% to economic growth, and total goods imports/exports increased by 3.8% year-on-year, indicating an improving and optimizing development trend.
New drivers for high-quality development accelerated cultivation: value-added of digital product manufacturing above designated size grew 9.3% year-on-year in 2025, with server and industrial robot production experiencing rapid growth; R&D intensity reached 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average for the first time, and the innovation index ranking broke into the global top ten, with multiple indicators confirming the steady growth of new productive forces and the expansion of new growth drivers.
The "green" foundation of high-quality development became more pronounced: clean energy power generation (hydro, nuclear, wind, solar) from industries above designated size grew 8.8% compared to 2024; the competitiveness of the new energy industry continuously improved, with annual production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeding 16 million units, showcasing a new dimension in green transformation development.
"China's successive breakthroughs in economic scale are underpinned by strong support from high-quality development," analyzed Kang Yi, noting that the 140 trillion yuan economy is the fruitful outcome of implementing the new development philosophy.
Analyzing the "troika" of economic growth drivers, final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports of goods and services contributed 52.0%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively to economic growth in 2025, with consumption remaining the primary engine.
China's consumer market scaled new heights in 2025, with annual total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 50.1202 trillion yuan, breaking the 50 trillion yuan threshold, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to 2024. Service retail maintained relatively rapid growth, with its share increasing, demonstrating strong vitality.
"As living standards improve, household consumption is shifting from being predominantly goods-based to a balance between goods and services, continuously unleashing the potential of service consumption," Kang Yi stated. Data shows service retail sales grew 5.5% year-on-year in 2025, 1.7 percentage points faster than goods retail sales, with its share in total retail sales also rising.
Policies promoting trade-ins of consumer goods were intensified and expanded, accelerating sales growth for related products. Retail sales for six categories of goods related to trade-ins increased 4.1% year-on-year in 2025, accelerating by 2 percentage points from 2024. Livestreaming e-commerce and online entertainment drove relatively fast growth in new consumption patterns, with online retail sales growing 8.6% year-on-year. New retail models like unmanned stores and membership-only warehouses maintained double-digit retail sales growth.
Looking ahead to 2026, Kang Yi believes that despite pressures and challenges, numerous positive factors support continued consumption growth, and the consumer market is expected to grow steadily, driven by immense potential from consumption upgrading, ongoing effects of pro-consumption policies, and an improving consumption environment.
Regarding investment, overall investment declined year-on-year in 2025, while manufacturing investment maintained growth. Data shows national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 48.5186 trillion yuan for the year, a 3.8% decrease from 2024. By sector, infrastructure investment fell 2.2% year-on-year, manufacturing investment rose 0.6%, and real estate development investment dropped 17.2%.
"Investment growth rates in aerospace equipment manufacturing and automotive manufacturing both reached double digits in 2025, indicating that the development of new productive forces strongly stimulates investment. With continued reinforcement of more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, consumption will further accelerate and investment will stabilize and recover in 2026," said Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Golden Credit Rating International.
In 2025, China also achieved new progress in improving people's livelihoods. National per capita disposable income reached 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% year-on-year, with real growth after price adjustments also at 5.0%, keeping pace with economic growth. The annual average surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, with the December rate at 5.1%, indicating stable employment conditions.
"All regions and departments intensified efforts to implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, effectively enforced existing policies, and vigorously introduced new measures, fully stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, thereby effectively ensuring stable and positive economic performance," Kang Yi stated.
Currently, although the impact of external environmental changes is deepening and domestic stable development faces challenges, from a long-term perspective, the fundamental factors supporting China's positive economic development remain unchanged.
Policy support is robust – In 2025, China strengthened and improved macroeconomic regulation, introduced measures to stabilize employment and the economy for high-quality development, coordinated the use of ultra-long-term special government bonds, local government special bonds, and central budget内 investment, intensified and expanded the "two new" policies, and increased efforts on "two key" project construction. In 2026, more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies are expected to continue "safeguarding" economic growth.
Positive factors continue accumulating – Since September 2025, the core CPI year-on-year increase remained above 1% for four consecutive months; in December, core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year; the year-on-year decline in the industrial producer price index narrowed, with positive factors in the price sector continuously accumulating. The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that consumer demand is expected to gradually expand in 2026, and strengthened capacity regulation in key industries will favor price recovery.
Economic circulation is gradually improving – China's deepened advancement of a unified national market and optimized market competition order provide favorable conditions for reasonable price recovery and improved corporate profitability. In December, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index returned to expansion territory; profits of manufacturing enterprises above designated size grew 5.0% from January to November, compared to a 4.6% decline in the same period last year, indicating increasingly smooth economic circulation.
"Looking ahead to the full year of 2026, China's macroeconomic performance is expected to continue its overall stability and structurally upward trend. Structural upgrading unleashes medium-to-long-term potential, new productive forces guide future competition directions, and domestic demand system construction activates the动能 of the supersized market – these three endogenous forces will function synergistically," Cheng Shi stated.
The National Bureau of Statistics affirmed that China's economy possesses a stable foundation, multiple advantages, strong resilience, and great potential. The supporting conditions and fundamental trend of long-term improvement remain unchanged. Overall, opportunities outweigh challenges, and favorable conditions are stronger than unfavorable factors, indicating that China's economy has the conditions and support for stable and positive performance in 2026.
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