According to research by Guotai Haitong Securities, as of November 26, the average market price for 70g wood pulp high-white offset paper in November was 4,731 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.06%) month-on-month. While some paper manufacturers announced price hikes early in the month, distributors remained cautious in restocking, leading to limited new order follow-through.
For corrugated paper, the average monthly price of China's AA-grade 120g corrugated paper reached 3,164 yuan/ton, up 6.35% month-on-month and 16.71% year-on-year. In early November, low inventory levels among upstream paper mills and strong price hike intentions provided solid support. Mid-to-late November saw some large-scale mills undergo maintenance shutdowns for 3-8 days, reducing supply and reinforcing price stability. Major mills continued raising prices, sustaining bullish market sentiment.
**Key Takeaways from Guotai Haitong:**
**Cultural Paper:** Mills raised prices to stabilize end-user costs, but weak demand persisted. - The average price of 70g wood pulp high-white offset paper dipped slightly to 4,731 yuan/ton. - Early-month price hike announcements saw limited distributor uptake. - Stable production from major mills ensured ample supply, except for brief maintenance in Jiangsu. - Low bidding prices in some publishing tenders dampened market sentiment. - Wood pulp prices fluctuated, weakening cost-pass-through effects.
**White Cardboard:** Price hike notices drove further increases amid low inventory. - The average transaction price for 250-400g white cardboard rose 3.30% to 4,194 yuan/ton. - Persistent cost pressures prompted mills to raise prices. - High order volumes and low producer inventories supported price hikes. - Traders held back supply, but weak end-user demand slowed momentum by mid-month.
**Corrugated Paper:** Mills pushed prices higher despite margin pressures. - AA-grade 120g corrugated paper averaged 3,164 yuan/ton, up 6.35% monthly. - Low upstream inventories and maintenance-driven supply cuts bolstered prices. - Rising wastepaper costs further supported pricing. - Packaging plants restocked moderately but slowed purchases as inventories grew.
**Wood Pulp:** Broadleaf pulp import prices rose, while domestic gains slowed. - Imported wood pulp prices diverged, with trading dominated by rigid demand. - Needle pulp prices climbed due to trader cost pressures despite futures volatility. - Tight supply and seller reluctance lifted broadleaf and unbleached pulp prices. - Mechanical pulp prices dipped slightly on weak demand.
**Risks:** Overseas pulp supply disruptions and weaker-than-expected downstream demand.
Comments