Barclays has downgraded small modular reactor technology provider NuScale Power (SMR.US) from "Equal Weight" to "Underweight," setting a price target of $5, citing risks from delays in finalizing key commercial contracts.
Barclays analyst Christine Cho believes that the investment case for NuScale hinges on commercialization milestones, which are being achieved more slowly than anticipated, increasing the company's execution risk.
In her report, Cho noted that the most closely watched item is that the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and ENTRA1 Energy have yet to announce a final power purchase agreement (PPA) to support a 6-gigawatt deployment plan utilizing NuScale's small modular reactor technology. This raises the risk that negotiations could extend into 2027.
Although NuScale continues to make progress on the supply chain, including manufacturing long-lead components and producing its first boron oxide pellets, Cho views these developments as "more like prerequisites than project-defining milestones."
Without binding customer agreements, the analyst believes it remains difficult to determine when NuScale will be able to convert its design and supply chain into financed projects, construction activity, and ultimately commercial deployment.
Meanwhile, Cho maintains an "Overweight" rating on Oklo (OKLO.US), describing its Groves project in Texas as "demonstrating tangible execution," advancing from groundbreaking in September 2025 to first criticality by August 2026. First criticality typically refers to the point at which a nuclear reactor achieves a self-sustaining chain reaction, a key milestone in the commissioning phase of a nuclear power project.
In addition, Groves-2 Forge provides a pathway for Oklo to build a larger-scale, vertically integrated commercial isotope platform.
NuScale closed down 1.93% on Tuesday at $5.58, having touched a 52-week low of $5.33 during intraday trading. The stock has fallen more than 60% year-to-date.
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