Analysts at Bank of America have issued a warning for investors to hedge against further gains in the S&P 500 and prepare for a potential multi-wave correction in the coming months. The bank's head of technical research, Paul Ciana, stated in a report released Thursday that although the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 17% from its March low, the rebound is showing signs of fatigue since hitting a recent peak on June 2.
Ciana projects that the S&P 500 could potentially fall to a low of 6,850 points, representing a downside of approximately 7.6% from current levels. He described the anticipated market path for the summer as a "three-wave adjustment," noting that volatility is increasing following the post-ceasefire rally and the risk of a pullback is accumulating.
He pointed out that the current advance in the S&P 500 is "overextended" and market momentum is waning. Consequently, he recommends investors adopt a more defensive investment strategy during the July to September period.
This cautious stance from Bank of America contrasts with the generally optimistic sentiment prevailing on Wall Street recently. Last week, Societe Generale raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7,300 to 8,000 points. JPMorgan and Fundstrat have also expressed optimism regarding the index's performance for the remainder of the year.
In fact, a team led by Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian had earlier this month alerted investors to the presence of "too many red flags" in the current market, advising them to consider taking some profits.
In his latest report, Ciana further noted that the S&P 500 is facing increasingly evident selling pressure. He suggested that even if the index subsequently rises to 7,741 points to set a new high, it could merely represent a "false breakout."
He identified key support levels for the S&P 500 at 7,200, 7,025, and 6,850 points. Ciana also cautioned that as the summer trading period progresses, the market still faces the risk of a "double adjustment" that could persist into October, warning investors that a pullback might last longer than anticipated.
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