As NVIDIA (NVDA.US) prepares to release its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after the U.S. market close on May 20, top Wall Street investment banks and analysts have recently issued research reports, displaying increasingly bullish sentiment. From Citigroup and Goldman Sachs to Susquehanna and Wells Fargo, institutions widely expect NVIDIA to deliver another impressive "beat and raise" report, significantly raising their price targets based on robust AI demand.
Earnings Expectations: Consensus is Just the Starting Point, Massive Upward Revisions Become Routine The market generally expects NVIDIA's Q1 revenue to be approximately $78.6 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.75. However, several analysts believe this consensus is overly conservative. For NVIDIA, significantly exceeding expectations is not new. As CEO Jensen Huang stated, demand for NVIDIA's GPUs is "insanely" high. In Q4 fiscal 2026, the company's revenue exceeded market expectations by $1.9 billion, and in Q3, it exceeded expectations by over $2 billion. In fact, over the past 12 quarters, only three quarters failed to deliver an earnings beat exceeding $1 billion.
Citigroup expects NVIDIA's Q1 revenue to reach $80 billion, approximately $1.4 billion above the market consensus. Citigroup analysts attribute this significant increment primarily to "a stronger-than-expected ramp of the B300 chip." For Q2, Citigroup forecasts revenue to grow 11% sequentially to $89 billion, also well above the market expectation of $87 billion. Citigroup stated: "We have raised our GPU shipment forecast, now expecting total shipments of 11.2 million units (up 58% year-over-year, previously 10.6 million units), based on increased demand for Blackwell chips reflected in the latest data. Furthermore, management's positive commentary on Blackwell shipment progress at the 2026 GTC conference led us to raise our fiscal year 2027 (ending January 2027) Blackwell shipment forecast by 9% to 7.3 million units, primarily driven by continued strong B300 shipments." Citigroup added: "Driven by both increased shipments and an optimized product mix, we expect total fiscal 2027 revenue to reach $284 billion, a 79% increase year-over-year. Our upward revision to GPU revenue (approximately $16 billion) mainly reflects adjustments to shipment assumptions. We expect AI GPU sales to account for 70% to 80% of NVIDIA's total data center revenue on average during fiscal 2026-2027, with the remainder primarily from networking (Ethernet and InfiniBand), standalone CPUs, and software & services revenue."
Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland also believes that with the continued strong demand for NVIDIA's next-generation GB300 AI systems, the company's Q1 earnings report and outlook will be robust. The analyst has raised his price target from $250 to $275, maintaining a "Buy" rating. Rolland noted that NVIDIA continues to benefit from massive AI investments by major hyperscale cloud providers. He estimates that the top five hyperscalers' capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to nearly double, significantly higher than Wall Street's previous expectations. The analyst also mentioned that Huang recently projected combined revenue from the Blackwell and Rubin platforms could exceed $1 trillion by 2027. Based on this, Rolland has raised his revenue forecast for these two platforms through 2027 from the previous $940 billion to approximately $1 trillion.
Wells Fargo's top analyst Aaron Rakers also significantly raised his Q1 forecasts, increasing revenue and EPS estimates to $80.3 billion and $1.78, respectively, and raising his price target to $315. The bank stated this revision primarily reflects higher data center revenue expectations—raised from $72.2 billion to $74.6 billion (a 91% year-over-year increase). Rakers emphasized that "gigawatt-scale" capacity expansion in AI infrastructure is the primary driver. He expects NVIDIA's data center revenue to achieve leapfrog growth in the coming years as computing demand continues to outstrip supply. Specifically, he projects NVIDIA's GPU computing infrastructure gigawatt capacity will increase from approximately 9.2 GW in fiscal 2026 to nearly 15.7 GW in fiscal 2027, 20.8 GW in fiscal 2028, and 25.2 GW in fiscal 2029. Accordingly, Rakers now forecasts NVIDIA's data center revenue for fiscal years 2027, 2028, and 2029 to reach $352.5 billion (up 82% year-over-year), $503.9 billion (up 43%), and $624.8 billion (up 24%), respectively. These forecasts are 3%, 11%, and 15% above current market expectations. Rakers also expects strong demand for Blackwell chips to continue into Q2 fiscal 2027, ahead of the formal launch of the Vera-Rubin platform. Therefore, he concurrently raised his forecasts for Q2 data center revenue, total revenue, and EPS, now expecting Q2 fiscal 2027 revenue of $83 billion and EPS of $1.98.
Risks and Valuation: Potential for Re-rating Despite High Bar Despite strong fundamentals, analysts are not ignoring risks. While maintaining a "Buy" rating and a $250 price target, Goldman Sachs cautioned investors that "the bar for the stock to outperform heading into earnings is relatively high." The bank's updated 2026/2027 estimates are 14% and 34% above consensus, respectively, and it believes positive earnings revisions and valuation re-rating will be the drivers for the stock to outperform over the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs believes the market will closely watch for any potential upward revision to NVIDIA's $1 trillion data center guidance provided at the GTC conference and the potential boost from agent AI to the server CPU business. Simultaneously, gross margin prospects in the context of rising input costs are also a focus. However, Goldman Sachs also acknowledges that NVIDIA's current valuation trades at a significant discount to historical levels and peers, and if the company beats expectations and raises guidance, a stock rally driven by "multiple re-rating" is likely.
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