April 13, 2026, Washington - President Donald Trump addressed the media outside the Oval Office. Iran has so far held the upper hand in the economic standoff with President Trump. This week, Trump's unprecedented blockade of the Strait of Hormuz signals that the United States has not yet backed down. However, this major new US action carries significant risks—with implications extending far beyond the economic sphere.
A prolonged blockade would severely impact both the Iranian and US economies. It represents a form of mutual economic deterrence, with the United States, boasting a $31 trillion economy, betting it can better endure the resulting hardship. Yet, enforcing such a blockade requires substantial military force, placing US troops in danger—a consequence the US has largely avoided thus far through reliance on airstrikes. Forcibly boarding vessels to control these perilous waters could lead to an increase in US military casualties.
Public opinion in the United States is already broadly opposed to the conflict. The blockade risks triggering two consequences the American public is unlikely to tolerate: a further spike in oil prices and soldier casualties. Trump is gambling that Iran will concede first. However, Iran has previously withstood severe economic pressure, and there is no indication it is prepared to yield in this existential confrontation.
Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and a former CIA analyst, stated, "The game of chicken in the oil market continues to escalate. I'm not sure either side is prepared to back down."
Economic Confrontation The blockade could remove 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude oil exports from the global market. This constitutes approximately 2% of daily global demand. While not a massive volume, every barrel becomes critical if Iran were to physically close the strait, which would disrupt the transit of 12 million barrels per day.
Global oil markets are already showing the potential effects of a sustained blockade. On Monday, crude prices surged by as much as 8%. This could drive gasoline prices, already at a 4-year high, even higher. Last month saw the largest oil price increase since 2022, and US consumers, highly sensitive to inflation, have little tolerance for rising living costs.
In a Monday interview with Fox Business, President Trump acknowledged that high oil prices could persist until the November midterm elections. "It could [go higher], it could stay the same, or go a little higher, but overall it should be similar," Trump told Fox host Maria Bartiromo.
However, a successful blockade could prove more devastating for Iran. Dan Pickering, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Pickering Energy Partners, noted that a blockade would cripple Iranian oil exports, severing its primary revenue source. Iran's only pipeline to ports on the Gulf of Oman has a practical export capacity of just 200,000 barrels per day, and the US Navy could also blockade that route.
Adnan Mazarei, Senior Fellow for Middle East Affairs at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said, "Iran will certainly be hurt by this, and hurt significantly."
How Long Can Iran Endure? Despite this, Iran is accustomed to sanctions and economic hardship and possesses the resources for prolonged resistance. Following the lifting of US oil sanctions last month, Iranian crude production surged significantly. According to Johannes Raubacher, Senior Crude Oil Research Analyst at Kpler, Iran's total offshore crude volume—including floating storage and cargoes in transit—reached approximately 190 million barrels this week.
While the US Navy could intercept some tankers, preventing all crude shipments would be extremely difficult. "The current measures are unlikely to cause substantial disruption to Iran in the short term," Raubacher said.
Iran has also developed methods to circumvent sanctions in the past. Hassan Alhassan, Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, pointed out that Iran has previously blended its oil with Iraqi crude or smuggled fuel via Pakistan.
So, who blinks first? "Time is on Iran's side," Raubacher said. "Iran has previously endured crippling sanctions but never abandoned its right to uranium enrichment," Croft added. Karen Young, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, further noted, "Iran may be able to outlast the US Navy's willingness to enforce a blockade." All three perspectives suggest an advantage for Iran.
A New Phase of Conflict By implementing the blockade, the United States is effectively undertaking the formidable task of wresting control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. Over a month ago, the Trump administration suggested the Navy would escort tankers through the strait. That plan was never implemented, partly due to the danger to sailors from navigating narrow waters while defending against Iranian mines and attack craft. The logistical complexity made it a secondary mission, with the Navy's focus shifting to destroying Iran's offensive capabilities.
Trump's blockade is essentially the same concept as the escort plan, but with a changed objective: naval vessels will now intercept and seize enemy ships to prevent Iranian oil from reaching international markets.
This represents a serious escalation of the conflict. On Monday, Trump stated the US would sink any Iranian vessel approaching the blockade line. A senior Iranian lawmaker responded that any naval ship attempting to blockade Iranian ports would be "sent to the depths." This is not an empty threat; even with a degraded navy, Iran retains the capability to attack ships within the strait using small fast boats and inexpensive drones.
The blockade could also cause the war to expand beyond its current scope. Iran has already retaliated for US-Israeli joint attacks by targeting critical energy infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Croft stated that if Trump follows through on his threat, Tehran is expected to increase its attacks on regional energy facilities.
Croft warned that Iranian proxies—including Yemen's Houthis and Iran-aligned militias in Iraq—could become more broadly involved in the conflict. They have already begun harassing shipping in the Red Sea and are suspected of attacking a pipeline in Saudi Arabia. "This blockade is unlikely to remain confined to Iran," Mazarei said.
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