On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans continued to decline but remained within a range-bound pattern. Farmers stepped up harvesting, and funds continued to close positions. Both US soybean meal and soybean oil fell. Traders said the market remains concerned that currency factors will curb demand for US soybean exports. A previous crop report showed that 79% of US soybeans had been harvested, in line with market expectations.
Domestically, protein meal followed the decline, tracking the pullback in import costs. The spot market remains loose, and soybean meal inventories are at high levels. Live hog prices are sluggish, and the market has concerns about forward demand. The futures market continues to digest the pressure from falling import costs and high inventories, with future attention on soybean costs and expectations for soybean meal demand, as well as capital flows.
On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell, tracking weakness in surrounding markets. High-frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports rose 46.9%-67.7% month-on-month from October 1-25, with the export growth rate narrowing slightly from October 1-20. Production estimates for the same period were divergent. In addition, the market is watching whether Malaysia's export tax exemption policy will be implemented. If the policy is delayed, the market worries that Indonesia's tariff reduction could seize Malaysia's export share.
Domestically, oils and fats continued their weak performance, tracking the pullback in import costs. On the spot side, inventory pressure remains significant, with soybean oil and palm oil inventories at high levels. Future attention should remain on geopolitical conflicts, changes in import costs, and end-user consumption.
On Tuesday, live hog futures rose on reduced positions, with the weighted contract cutting more than 30,000 lots, bringing total open interest down to 468,900 lots. In mid-October, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that the national breeding sow herd at the end of the third quarter of 2026 fell to 36.02 million head, with the year-on-year decline widening to 10.7%, the first substantial breach below the normal retention red line of 37.5 million head.
The pace of capacity reduction continues to steepen, yet live hog prices have remained in a narrow low-level range. The divergence of "accelerating capacity clearing while prices remain stagnant" has drawn sustained market attention. On October 27, the mainstream live hog transaction price in the Heilongjiang market was 9.22 yuan/kg, unchanged from October 26. The pattern of strong expectations and weak reality in the live hog market persists.
Overall, after the National Day holiday, the supply side of the live hog market has continued to increase weight, spot hog prices have fallen seasonally, and low-priced meat has been supplied to the market, putting pressure on hog prices. The pattern of strong expectations and weak reality remains unchanged. Tuesday's hog price rise on reduced positions warrants caution regarding the impact of short-covering on prices.
On Tuesday, the main egg futures contract for December 2612 fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.88% at 3,276 yuan per 500 kg. On the spot side, data showed that as of October 27, national egg prices were 4.07 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from October 26. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 4 yuan/jin, and Heishan market brown-shell eggs were 4 yuan/jin. In sales areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 4.07 yuan/jin, and Guangzhou market brown-shell eggs were 4.33 yuan/jin.
End-user consumption is stable, traders are purchasing as needed, and egg prices rose in most regions while remaining stable in a few. Spot egg prices continued to rebound, while futures remained range-bound. Market sentiment is still cautious, and short-term eggs are likely to remain range-bound.
On Tuesday, corn futures continued to fluctuate and closed with a small bullish candle, with the weighted contract continuing to reduce positions while total open interest remained at a high level of 2.3 million lots. The northeastern production region is currently in the peak new grain listing period, and prices are under overall pressure. Deep-processing enterprises have sufficient inventories and are cautious in purchasing, mainly buying on demand.
Sinograin has gradually started purchasing. The Hulin direct warehouse acquisition price for third-grade corn at 14% moisture was 1.03 yuan/jin, and the Fujin direct warehouse was 1.0125 yuan/jin, playing a supporting role and influencing sentiment. After prices previously fell below planting costs, farmers' reluctance to sell intensified, and recent price movements have been mixed.
Corn harvesting in North China has been fully completed, and quality this year is better than in previous years. Grassroots reluctance to sell has increased notably, and market grain supply has fallen sharply. Feed and deep-processing enterprises have raised purchase prices, and purchasing enthusiasm has increased. This year's North China corn has good quality, high bulk density, and low toxins, making it favored by downstream enterprises.
Prices in southern sales areas are relatively firm. Losses in downstream breeding have weakened feed demand, and corn purchasing is mainly based on essential needs. Imported barley, sorghum, broken rice, and other substitutes continue to squeeze corn's market share. Overall, short-term market supply pressure remains, but demand has not yet shown clear signs of improvement. Corn prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with future attention on the pace of corn arrivals in Northeast China.
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