Major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed higher on March 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 1.78% and the Shenzhen Component Index rising over 1.4%. Trading volume shrank to below 2.1 trillion yuan. Recent conflicting statements from the US and Iran regarding conflict developments highlight ongoing uncertainties amid trilateral interest negotiations. A defensive strategy may remain prudent in the short term, with potential buying on dips once geopolitical risks clarify. Portfolio allocation could focus on high-dividend stocks, revalued physical assets, and stable growth sectors. Long-term recurring conflicts may accelerate global capital allocation into safe-haven assets, with China's relatively stable environment potentially attracting cross-border investments. Domestically, economic fundamentals continue to improve marginally. The 15th Five-Year Plan period serves as a critical phase toward doubling per capita GDP by 2035, with policy guidance establishing a new anchor for medium-to-long-term growth and asset pricing through ranged GDP targets, prioritizing new productive forces, and enhanced quasi-fiscal tools.
On March 23, just before the deadline for Trump's demand for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, the former US president unexpectedly announced "very good and productive" dialogue with Iran over the past two days, stating talks would continue through the weekend and ordering a five-day suspension of military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran promptly and firmly denied this, with its foreign ministry stating "no dialogue exists" with the US. This contradictory messaging exemplifies geopolitical uncertainty. Trump's signals may aim to buy time for military deployments and stabilize oil price expectations, while Iran's denial demonstrates unwillingness to concede under pressure and distrust of US intentions. The core issues remain control of the Strait of Hormuz and the direction of Iran's nuclear program. Such volatile developments may intensify oil price fluctuations and dampen overall risk appetite due to rising safe-haven demand.
On March 23, China's National Development and Reform Commission announced temporary price control measures on domestic refined oil products, effective from 24:00 that day. Due to escalating Middle East tensions, international crude prices surged significantly. Under the current pricing mechanism, gasoline and diesel prices should have increased by 2,205 yuan and 2,120 yuan per ton respectively, but after controls, actual increases were limited to 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan per ton—reductions of 1,045 yuan and 1,005 yuan per ton. This intervention exemplifies policy tools mitigating extreme external shocks, demonstrating commitment to stabilizing prices, safeguarding livelihoods, and promoting development. By absorbing part of the international price increase, the measure directly alleviates cost pressures on transportation, logistics, and agricultural sectors while preventing rapid PPI-to-CPI transmission and creating buffer space for inflation expectation management.
On March 23, at the 2026 China Development Forum's AI Industrialization Seminar, National Data Administration Director Liu Liehong stated China will accelerate construction of national computing hub clusters, support regions with conditions to develop computing capacity for low-latency scenarios, and establish sound data property rights systems. Authorities will promote computing-power coordination projects to ensure new computing facilities in hub nodes achieve over 80% green energy usage. This mandatory green energy threshold may push new computing facilities toward western regions rich in renewable resources, potentially benefiting synergistic development of computing infrastructure and green power industries. The policy clearly directs computing investments toward green transformation, potentially creating growth opportunities for computing equipment suppliers with green energy absorption capabilities, data center operators in western hubs, and green power providers.
On March 24, China's major stock indices advanced. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,881.28 points, up 1.78%; the Shenzhen Component Index ended at 13,536.56 points, up 1.43%; the ChiNext Index finished at 3,251.55 points, up 0.50%; and the STAR 100 Index closed at 1,489.98 points, up 2.16%. Among sectors, only petroleum & petrochemicals and coal declined, falling 0.86% and 0.49% respectively. Environmental protection, textiles & apparel, and building materials led gains, rising 4.29%, 3.99%, and 3.66% respectively. 4,943 stocks rose while 300 fell.
Market turnover reached 2,096.226 billion yuan, declining from the previous session. The margin trading balance ended at 2,620.031 billion yuan, down from the prior day.
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