Amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, the Strait of Hormuz remains nearly entirely closed, restricting output from several major oil-producing nations and pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel. JPMorgan released a research report stating that as storage tanks gradually fill and transportation bottlenecks persist, crude oil production cuts in the Middle East are projected to surpass 4 million barrels per day by the end of next week. Analysts, including Natasha Kaneva, Head of Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan, noted that any disruption at Kharg Island—which handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports—could further reduce output by an additional 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day. This would bring total supply losses in the region to at least 5 million barrels per day. When refined products are included, the overall reduction could exceed 8 million barrels daily. Natasha Kaneva also pointed out that until confidence is restored, the oil market faces significant price asymmetry: prices could drop by $10 due to reassuring headlines, but once production cuts in the Gulf region are implemented and trigger ripple effects, prices could surge by as much as $30. JPMorgan indicated that Iran, previously expected to cut production later, may act sooner than Kuwait and the UAE. As pre-conflict shipments are gradually absorbed and new shipments face obstacles, consumer markets could experience noticeable supply shortages within a week.
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