Bitcoin extended its weak performance on October 26, pushing closer to the $80,000 mark after dropping roughly $2,000 over the weekend. As of 13:52 Beijing time, Bitcoin was down 0.4% at $80,227.7, hovering near the lower boundary of its recent one-month trading range of $80,000 to $87,000.
Persistent declines in global technology stocks, elevated international oil prices, and this week's upcoming interest rate decisions from several major central banks have collectively weighed on risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. Although international oil prices retreated somewhat on Monday, markets remain concerned that rising energy costs could prompt central banks to maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.
Weekend Drop of Approximately $2,000 Pushes Bitcoin Toward $80,000 Threshold
Bitcoin has consistently failed to break out of its $80,000 to $87,000 trading range over the past month, with prices recently gravitating toward the lower end of that band. Over the past weekend, Bitcoin fell by a cumulative $2,000, and on Monday it continued to hover around $80,200, just a step away from the $80,000 round-number threshold.
This decline occurred against the backdrop of a sustained correction in global technology stocks. As investor concerns over massive capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure and its financing prospects intensified, technology stocks recently faced significant selling pressure, and risk-averse sentiment gradually spread to the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, the market lacks positive catalysts capable of driving a price rebound. Investors are awaiting this week's key central bank interest rate decisions, and before the monetary policy outlook becomes clearer, their willingness to allocate capital to highly volatile assets such as Bitcoin remains subdued.
International Oil Prices Retreat from Highs, but Energy Inflation Risks Keep Markets on Alert
International oil prices declined on Monday. Earlier reports suggested that certain Middle Eastern countries and Iran may engage in further negotiations, easing some market concerns about regional energy supply disruptions. At the time of reporting, Brent crude was down approximately 1.7% at $109.82 per barrel, while WTI crude fell about 2.1%.
Despite this, international oil prices remain close to their highs for the year, and the pressure that persistently rising energy costs have placed on global inflation and economic growth prospects has not yet been eliminated. For the cryptocurrency market, the primary risk posed by elevated oil prices lies in monetary policy. If energy prices continue to push inflation higher, major central banks may need to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, or even raise rates further. Higher interest rates typically increase the cost of capital and weaken investors' willingness to hold risk assets like Bitcoin.
Fed, ECB, and BOJ Meet This Week, Markets Watch for Hawkish Signals
This week, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan will hold monetary policy meetings in succession. Markets widely expect all three central banks to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, but investors are more focused on their statements regarding future inflation and interest rate paths.
Due to rising energy prices and persistent inflation pressures, markets anticipate that major central banks may release hawkish signals, leaving room for further rate hikes later this year. Even if no actual rate increase occurs this week, any indication from central banks that monetary tightening remains possible in the future could weigh on the cryptocurrency market. This is especially true given that global technology stocks remain under pressure and market risk appetite is already fragile, meaning shifts in monetary policy expectations could further amplify Bitcoin price volatility.
Cryptocurrencies Decline Broadly as "Uptober" Rally Fails to Materialize for Second Consecutive Year
Other major cryptocurrencies also performed weakly on Monday. Ethereum fell 0.9% to $2,320.05; XRP declined 0.5%, Solana dropped 0.2%, Cardano fell 0.8%, and BNB slipped 0.2%. Among meme coins, Dogecoin edged up 0.4%, while the Trump-themed token TRUMP declined 0.6%.
Notably, the October rally that some investors traditionally refer to as "Uptober" has once again failed to materialize this year, breaking the seasonal bullish expectation for a second consecutive year. With retail and institutional investor sentiment remaining persistently weak, Bitcoin is currently still lingering near the lower boundary of its recent trading range. Whether major central banks signal further rate hikes this week, and whether the Middle East situation can drive oil prices lower on a sustained basis, will be key factors influencing the short-term trajectory of the cryptocurrency market.
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