On May 8, the cryptocurrency market continued its upward trend, with Bitcoin rising to around $81,600 per coin. Statements from U.S. Secretary of State Rubio alleviated concerns about further military escalation, while both the U.S. dollar and oil prices faced downward pressure, providing additional room for risk asset valuations. CBCX noted that BTC has climbed from approximately $63,000 to above $80,000 over the past three months, driven by sustained institutional inflows and reasonable leverage levels, supporting the continuation of the bullish trend. The institution's analysis indicates that key signals monitored by professional investors consistently point toward the next target level near $85,000 per coin.
From a market structure perspective, BTC has risen above key cost benchmarks, and perpetual funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, indicating a clear release of previous short-selling pressure. CBCX believes that market makers hold short gamma exposure around $82,000 per coin, and further price increases could trigger hedging-related buying, providing additional upward momentum. The institution assesses that Bitcoin futures open interest is approaching a historical high of 800,000 coins, but perpetual funding rates remain in a slightly positive range, suggesting the market has not yet shown signs of overheating or excessive crowding, with a generally healthy capital structure.
On the macroeconomic front, a marginal easing of geopolitical tensions and a decline in oil prices have collectively alleviated concerns about the inflation trajectory. A slight pullback in U.S. Treasury yields has reduced downward pressure on risk asset valuation anchors. Institutions observe that long-term Bitcoin holders' positions remain relatively stable, selling pressure from miners is moderate, and the market structure shows no significant deterioration. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings also serve as important indicators for gauging institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market, and should be analyzed comprehensively alongside multi-dimensional data. For long-term participants, focusing on whether weekly closes hold above key levels provides more meaningful guidance than intraday fluctuations, and observing multiple timeframes helps filter out market noise.
CBCX anticipates that Bitcoin may continue its upward movement in the short term, testing the $85,000 per coin target. Directional choices are more likely to be driven by macroeconomic data and institutional capital flows. The institution emphasizes that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets require investors to prioritize risk budgeting and position control. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy path, Treasury yield trends, regulatory developments, and spot ETF fund flows to avoid excessive trading driven by one-sided sentiment and to adapt rationally during market transition periods.
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