China's gross domestic product for the first half of the year exceeded 69.5 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Against a backdrop of a complex and volatile external environment and an expected slowdown in global trade growth, what is the true value of this performance? How are New Quality Productive Forces shouldering a major role? What is driving the growth in foreign trade for 11 consecutive quarters? What signals are being released by the "pointed bottoming out" of the property market? At the "2026 Mid-Year Economic Situation Analysis Meeting" hosted by China News Service's Guoshi Express on July 15, six prominent experts provided a deep analysis of this "mid-year report card" from macroeconomic, financial, foreign trade, and real estate perspectives. From their assessments, a picture of the Chinese economy is emerging, characterized by a "very solid foundation, strong resilience, and abundant new vitality."
China's Economic Foundation Remains Solid, Resilience Undiminished
"The operation of China's economy in the first half of the year exhibited three major characteristics: 'coexistence of stock repair and incremental creation, overlapping of existing policies and new policies, and synchronization of export-oriented economic growth with internal optimization.' The four major goals have been largely achieved—GDP growth of 4.7% stabilized the overall situation, the structure continued to optimize, effective increments were amplified, and the three bottom lines of debt, finance, and people's livelihood were successfully defended," analyzed Chen Wenling, a senior researcher at the Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies.
Regarding the coexistence of stock repair and incremental creation, Chen noted that in the face of a complex external environment, the steady repair of the existing economic stock was hard-won. On this basis, the Chinese economy also created significant new increments, with the development of New Quality Productive Forces being particularly rapid. Chen pointed out that data shows the value-added of industrial enterprises above a designated size grew 5.4% year-on-year in the first half, while the value-added of high-tech manufacturing surged 13.3%. Industries such as 3D printing, industrial robots, new energy vehicles, high-end equipment, and AI hardware have formed the pillars and foundation for the growth of New Quality Productive Forces.
On the overlapping of existing and new policies, she analyzed that policy tools are continuously being implemented and exerting a combined effect. For example, the annual deficit ratio is set at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan; 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued for the year to support key projects in "two major areas" and "two new types." "The implementation of these policies plays a very significant role in addressing existing issues and expanding new increments, while inclusive tax reduction policies are also being continued," Chen said.
Concerning the synchronization of export-oriented growth with internal optimization, Chen explained that from the demand side, both external and domestic demand contributed simultaneously in the first half. On one hand, external demand exceeded expectations, providing a stabilizing base. The prices of exported goods increased, their structure optimized, and trade methods also improved continuously. Beyond processing trade, general trade, and small-scale border trade, digital trade, service trade, and platform trade are now flourishing, collectively forming the support for external demand to stabilize the national economy. On the other hand, domestic demand is continuously recovering. For instance, the share of service consumption is growing rapidly. Simultaneously, many "hot spots" have emerged in service consumption, such as short videos, large-scale performances, major expositions, and consumption driven by emotional value, fully unleashing the potential of domestic demand. "Overall, my evaluation of the economic situation in the first half is high, good, and trending towards excellence," Chen stated.
Chen Li, Chief Economist and Director of the Research Institute at Chuancai Securities, pointed out that in the first half, China's economic foundation was very solid and its resilience remained undiminished, with multiple positive factors jointly supporting a stable and positive economic trend. "The role of technological factors in economic growth is significant," he said. In the first half, the output of products like 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and industrial robots increased by 48.5%, 39.3%, and 28.0% year-on-year respectively, with growth rates far outpacing other categories, indicating that New Quality Productive Forces are leading the accelerated optimization of the industrial structure.
Chen Li concluded that in the first half, China's economic foundation was solid, with strong and resilient support in areas like people's livelihood, sustainability, and green development. Subsequent frontier technological innovation, cultivation of emerging industries, the vigorous development of the tertiary sector, coupled with the continuous smoothing of the national unified market, will continue to empower the economy to stabilize and improve in quality, progressing steadily and positively.
Advantages Supporting China's Foreign Trade Remain Unchanged
In the first half, China's total import and export value reached 25.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%. Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, believes this achievement was "hard-won" against the backdrop of an expected slowdown in global trade growth. "Exports have been an important supporting force for economic growth in the first half. The frequent highlights in export data indicate that the growth momentum is still operating on the established track," Chen Li noted.
From an export perspective, China's export growth has exceeded 10% this year, maintaining growth for 11 consecutive quarters. "The recent hot sales of Chinese air conditioners in Europe is a typical example," Zhou Mi analyzed, noting that the ongoing adjustments in global supply chains have seen Chinese exports playing a positive role in stabilizing them. Chinese manufacturing and innovative product exports provide crucial support for many countries. On the import side, import growth in the first half was faster than export growth. In Zhou Mi's view, China's efforts to expand market openness, including implementing zero-tariff measures for all African countries with diplomatic relations and continuously reducing tariffs for other nations, while expanding imports, also provide more choices for domestic consumers, achieving mutual benefit and win-win outcomes.
"The advantageous conditions supporting the development of China's foreign trade have not fundamentally changed, and I am confident about the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year," Zhou Mi stated. He believes that the sustained growth in China's foreign trade in the first half was based on production and consumption, making it sustainable. Furthermore, the trust relationship between China and its trading partners is expected to further strengthen. Zhou Mi added that China is continuously promoting the signing of new free trade agreements and upgrading existing ones. These measures will provide more stable expectations for Chinese enterprises and trading partners, aiding in achieving more effective development.
More Proactive Fiscal Policy Provides Strong Support
From January to May, national general public budget revenue reached 10.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. This growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that from January to April and 4.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. "This means the efficiency of economic operation is improving, leading to an increase in revenue," said Zhao Xijun, Co-Dean of the China Capital Market Research Institute at Renmin University of China, adding that the structure of fiscal revenue is also becoming more reasonable.
First, tax revenue achieved a good recovery. From January to May, national tax revenue was 8.26 trillion yuan, growing 4.4%, with the growth rate 0.5 percentage points higher than that from January to April. Zhao Xijun pointed out that compared to the declining growth rate in the same period last year, a clear reversal has occurred this year. Looking at the tax structure, overall tax revenue grew significantly higher than last year from January to May, with most tax categories achieving good growth except for a few individual ones.
Second, non-tax revenue also maintained growth. From January to May, national non-tax revenue was 1.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. Zhao Xijun stated that non-tax revenue mainly comes from the sale of state-owned resources and the revitalization of local assets, indicating that the policy effects of increasing new increments and revitalizing existing stock, proposed earlier, are becoming evident.
Third, local revenue is trending towards stability. From January to May, local general public budget revenue at the local level grew 2.7% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than the 1.9% growth rate in the same period last year. On the expenditure side, from January to May, national general public budget expenditure reached 11.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Zhao Xijun stated that economic growth has brought about increased revenue, and a more proactive fiscal policy has also supported the sustained and stable economic growth in the first half.
Property Market Shows Signs of "Pointed Bottoming Out"
Zou Linhua, Head of the Housing Big Data Project Group at the National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated that first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities, due to factors such as industrial base, population size, and supply contraction, are showing the first signs of halting declines and stabilizing, forming a pattern of "pointed bottoming out." In the second half of the year, marginal improvements are expected to continue, with structural differentiation between cities likely to increase.
Zou Linhua suggested that short-term policies should adapt to the new stage of differentiation by implementing category-specific measures, establishing a dynamic and precise city classification and regulation mechanism. Cities could be broadly divided into three categories, each subject to differentiated policy targets and tools. For first-tier cities and second-tier cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu that show initial signs of stabilization, the policy goal should be to consolidate the situation, requiring policy stability, boosting market confidence, and promoting the steady release of demand.
For cities with improving supply and demand, where most second and third-tier cities have seen a narrowing in price declines and a slight recovery in transaction volume, the policy goal is to further promote market stabilization. This requires continued strengthening of demand support, promoting the release of improvement-oriented demand, and optimizing the housing supply structure. Zou emphasized that the intensity and pace of policies are crucial and sufficient support needs to be provided.
For a few third and fourth-tier cities, the policy goal is to strengthen the safety net and prevent risks. Policy tools could include increasing the acquisition of existing housing stock, with local governments or platform companies purchasing existing properties for use as social housing, combining urban renewal with market stabilization, and enhancing the value of existing areas through supply chain updates and improved配套设施.
Zou Linhua stated that classified regulation addresses the issue of short-term precise policy implementation. In the long term, continuous improvement at the institutional level is needed. He suggested advancing the reform of the housing supply system, perfecting the "social housing + market" housing supply system, establishing a real estate financial system suited to the new stage, further reducing mortgage interest rates in phases, and effectively lightening the interest burden on purchasers.
Sustaining Growth Remains a Key Focus for China's Economic Development
Wei Qijia, a researcher at the State Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that maintaining growth remains a key focus for China's economic development both currently and in the period ahead, ensuring both reasonable quantitative growth and effective qualitative improvement in the economy. He suggested that, in terms of macroeconomic policy, efforts should be made to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. Policies should be intensified to address structural challenges, such as how to further accelerate the transmission efficiency of major project investments and central fiscal funds, promote faster project commencement and implementation, and generate more physical工作量.
Monetary policy should smooth its transmission mechanism, ensuring effective support through "precise滴灌" via channel development. Simultaneously, efforts should be made to firmly secure the bottom lines of employment and income growth for people's livelihood. Facing the diverse demands of different groups regarding both employment and income growth, policy supply should strengthen precise implementation. Exploring the formation of a "one-group-one-policy" approach could enhance the precision and effectiveness of livelihood保障 policies, avoiding a "scattergun" approach.
Furthermore, the urbanization process contains vast investment potential, such as in the construction of urban parking facilities, all closely related to enhancing民生保障 capabilities. Making effective investments in these areas also provides strong support for民生保障 endeavors. Wei Qijia also recommended continuously removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, building a virtuous cycle of optimizing the consumption environment, boosting消费信心, and expanding消费需求, so that the public is willing, daring, and able to consume.
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