Guosen Securities has reiterated its "Outperform" rating on 3SBIO (01530), citing the company's rapid progress in global clinical development, completion of significant licensing deals, and steady earnings growth. Following the finalization of the 707 licensing agreement, the firm has raised its profit forecasts, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB9.955 billion, RMB2.875 billion, and RMB3.212 billion for 2025-2027 (previous estimates: RMB2.38 billion, RMB2.71 billion, and RMB3.07 billion).
Key insights from Guosen Securities include: 1. **Phase 2 Clinical Data for 707 in NSCLC**: 3SBIO recently presented Phase 2 data at the STIC conference, demonstrating the efficacy and safety of 707 combined with chemotherapy in both squamous (sqNSCLC) and non-squamous (nsqNSCLC) subtypes of stage 1L NSCLC. The results support advancing to Phase 3 trials.
2. **Pfizer’s Global Clinical Strategy for 707**: Pfizer outlined a two-wave development plan for 707. The first wave focuses on two pivotal Phase 3 trials (1L NSCLC and 1L mCRC), alongside five upcoming studies targeting ES-SCLC, NSCLC with ADCs, mHCC, mUC, and mRCC. The second wave, expected by late 2026, aims to initiate trials for 10 additional indications and over 10 novel combination therapies. The goal is to position 707 as a foundational treatment replacing current PD-(L)1 and VEGF inhibitors, while exploring ADC combinations, chemotherapy-free regimens, and early-stage applications like neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy.
Risks include potential delays in R&D, underwhelming clinical data, and slower-than-expected commercialization.
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