fuboTV Is Already Recovering, So Get In Early

seekingalpha2021-07-02

Summary fuboTV is still very early in its growth stages even as the company is moving into sports betting soon. The company is astutely establishing its leadership in sports program streaming, ...

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Comments

Rachealrach
2021-07-02
Rachealrach
????
IsaacYap90
2021-07-02
IsaacYap90
The company is astutely establishing its leadership in sports program streaming, differentiating itself from its entertainment-focused peers.
boonk
2021-07-02
boonk
Can fubo go to 50?
- IsaacYap90:
  The company is astutely establishing its leadership in sports program streaming, differentiating itself from its entertainment-focused peers.
Jaywei
2021-07-02
Jaywei
Nice
- IsaacYap90:
  The company is astutely establishing its leadership in sports program streaming, differentiating itself from its entertainment-focused peers.
- Jaywei:
  Commented
Roticanai
2021-07-02
Roticanai
Like
- IsaacYap90:
  The company is astutely establishing its leadership in sports program streaming, differentiating itself from its entertainment-focused peers.

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To put it simply, fuboTV is a streaming content aggregator, with a laser-sharp focus on using a wide array of sports content as the key part of its customer-acquisition strategy where the company popularly coined: “come for the sports, stay for the entertainment.”\nfuboTV strongly believes in the power of aggregation as the company emphasized: “Aggregatorshave always succeeded throughout history, and it's just a more efficient and more effective viewing experience with better customization and personalization, and it's all in one place.” fuboTV certainly has one of broadest array of content in this space as the company offers more than100 channelsin their Standard plan, which is 40 more channels than what the market leader Hulu (DIS) offers in its basic package.\nWhile aggregation is nothing new, fuboTV believes that with its position as one of the emerging leaders in the vMVPD space, the company would benefit from the cord-cutting growth that is expected to continue spilling over to the streaming market moving forward, and its laser-focus on sports content would give it the future leadership in its market as it rapidly grows its customer base.\nBenefiting from Pay TV's Shift to Streaming\n\nNumber of pay TV households in the U.S. from 2013 to 2025. Data source: eMarketer\nfuboTV is riding the wave of cord-cutting, where the number of pay TV households in the U.S. is expected to decline from 100.5M in 2013 to 60.3M by 2025, falling at a CAGR of 4.2%. If content aggregation was fuboTV’s only competitive advantage, we would never have been impressed with the company’s strategy since the major Pay TV players were already well aware of cord-cutting, and have moved swiftly into streaming or vMVPD such as Xfinity stream (CMCSA), Peacock (CMCSA), Sling TV (DISH), among others.\nMany of these streaming services are focused on entertainment as their key content strategy, while fuboTV has depended on sports content to spearhead its inroads to acquire customers, a strategy that we think gives the company a key strategic differentiator against most of the other players, narrowing the playing field to perhaps just a few key players such as YouTube TV (GOOGL) (GOOG) and Hulu.\nIn this aspect,FUBOis widelyrecognisedto have “the widest sports coverage” among them, therefore giving FUBO a key competitive advantage against its more well endowed rivals in its quest to dominate sports content aggregation. It’s a point that is clearly emphasized by CEO David Gandler:\n\n Fubo is what I like to call asports first cable TV replacement service. We've got over 110 channels in our basic pack, we have over 50,000 sporting events on the platform. Everything from high school football, American football, all the way to the Olympics, the [Fifa] World Cup and the Super Bowl, so it's a pretty wide breadth of sports programming. We have the largest American football package in the US with all the NFL games, as well as every college football league. Soccer is where our DNA is, and we’re extremely strong there as well. We also have the largest regional sports network portfolio from all virtual services in the US.\n\nThe company’s focus on sports content has helped it to rapidly gain market share (from <3% in 2019 to 5.8% now), even though the size of it is still considered relatively small. More importantly, in Q1’21, the company gained43K subscribersfrom Q4’20 to reach a subscriber base of 590K, in what was usually a seasonally weak quarter.\nWhile YouTube TV added 75K subscribers in Q1’21, that addition was against a subscriber base of 3M paid subscribers, and it also came in as YouTube TV’s“slowest growth since 2018”. Meanwhile, Hulu + Live TV and Sling TV both lost 200K subscribers and 100K subscribers over the same period, as part of the U.S. vMVPD industry's net loss of 241K subscribers.\nWhile we ask that investors do not read too much into what had always been a seasonally weak quarter for the industry, we wanted to specially highlight fuboTV’s strength as it managed a pretty impressive 8% gain in subscribers. We think the strength in the company’s market-leading sports offering has certainly been instrumental in Q1'21.\nThe company also clearly articulated why they think the demand for sports content is so inelastic:\n\n It's about targeting the right demographic and sports programming is, I would say, relatively inelastic. If you like Premier League football you're going to want to pay for it, if you like the NFL you're going to want to pay for it. When you think about entertainment it's a little bit different. In my opinion, entertainment is more fungible. You have a two-hour time slot that you want to fill watching a TV show or a movie. Do you watch a James Bond movie or do you watch a Tom Cruise movie like Mission: Impossible? You should probably get the same entertainment value from either of those. You cannot do that [in sport]. Sports are not fungible. If you like a specific event or you like a specific team, you just can't go to somewhere else.\n\n\nSports viewing by Pay TV subscribership\nIn the above survey that was conducted in 2019, it was observed that “53% of our respondents watch sports either daily, weekly or monthly and that 90% of these viewers continue to subscribe to Pay TV.” This clearly underscores the inelasticity of sports programming that is still dominated by Pay TV just two years back even though entertainment content has largely been affected by cord-cutting. In addition, we could also clearly observe that 59% of Pay TV subscribers and 66% of vMVPD subscribers, respectively, were regular sports viewers, and only 29% and 19% of these regular sports viewers were Cord cutters and Cord Nevers, respectively.\nAs a result, while FUBO has a widely diversified suite of entertainment options, “more than 90 percent of fuboTV’s customers watch sport via the service.” We think that if FUBO could continue offering its highly compelling sports programming to its customers, and be able to continually grow its sports-focused subscribers, moving them over from Pay TV, we think the potential for growth is immense.\nWhile “broadcast TVis still the destination for primetime live sports”, we believe that COVID-19 has accelerated the shift of sports programming to streaming and we have begun to see big moves taking place such as “Amazon securing exclusive streaming rights to Thursday Night Football for 10 years starting in 2023”, and even “New England Patriots owner and NFL media committee chairman Robert Kraft emphasized that: ‘Streaming is truly the future. [This] new hybrid of traditional viewing options and streaming … will help transition viewers to that future.’\"\nWhile we are still at a very early stage of the transition, we think fuboTV offers investors a high potential play of sports programming shift to streaming, which we think would likely become the market leading sports streaming platform in the future.\nHuge Opportunities in Live Sports Streaming\n\nNo. of live sports viewers in the U.S. from 2019 to 2024. Data source: eMarketer\nWhile the number of live sports viewers in the U.S. is expected to grow to 160.3M by 2024, it is unlikely to change significantly from 2019’s numbers. However, if we consider FUBO’s current 590K subscribership, investors should be able to appreciate just how much potential there is for FUBO to grow into if the company could continue executing its growth strategies well over the next few years, to become consumers’ #1 choice in sports streaming. The opportunity in this market is simply too massive to ignore, and FUBO looks extremely well-positioned to capture its high potential growth.\n\nForecasted sports betting revenue in the U.S. by 2025. Data source: Casino.Org; Morgan Stanley\nWhile we remain quietly confident that FUBO's market position in sports streaming would continue to help it capture substantial growth ahead, we are also optimistic about the company’s impending foray into sports betting in Q4’21, which may likely be a game changer for the company in terms of engagement.\nThe company has recently launched itsfree-to-play predictive gamesin which the company highlighted: “We are very, very encouraged with the results, at least from the first two days that we've been able to test that with our user base.“ FUBO has also previously highlighted that from their own internal survey, they observed that “22% of its subscribers would be willing to place a hundred dollars a month throughout the month on bets.” Therefore, we are really excited about the potential from this stream of high margin revenue that may accrue to the company as FUBO added: “we think we have a very compelling offer, which will be 50% margin.”\nThe online sports betting market is also expected to be worth $5B by 2025. Although it may not seem to be a huge market in itself, it’s important for investors to note that sports betting is going to be just one of the ways for the company to monetize its subscribers, and most importantly we think offers the key benefit of tremendously increasing engagement, which according to FUBO, they are already ahead of Roku, Inc. (ROKU) as “fuboTV subscribers streamed for 7.2 hours per day, while [Roku subscribers are] averaging three and a half hours.”\nThe company also expects their wide array of sports content and services to serve them well in competing against pure-play sports betting companies such as DraftKings (DKNG) as FUBO has highly compelling sports programming to keep encouraging its subscribers to keep coming back to place their bets by leveraging on their huge troves of personalized data to provide their customers multiple personalized betting options through the platform for them to place bets while they consume the sports content from FUBO. FUBO thinks the fact that pure-play betting companies lack an engagement platform, as well as the need to spend heavily on marketing to draw customers to bet would place these companies at a disadvantage against FUBO’s superior economics and data. FUBO has often emphasized that it’s a “highly data-driven company” and we think that their access to first-party data through its platform would serve them extremely well to monetize their customers.\nStill Very Early in its Advertising Revenue Growth\n\nAdvertising revenue. Source: FUBO\nWhile advertising revenue only formed about 10.5% of Q1’21 revenue, we are confident that FUBO would be able to maintain the segment's rapid expansion moving forward because of its highly competitive positioning in sports programming. This is a highly important growth driver for the company as ad revenue is most certainly highly lucrative, in which the company has even mentioned that the segment attracts a gross margin of “95% plus margin”. We think investors should continue paying attention to the growth in ad revenue and its contribution towards the company’s total revenue as this would be the main driver of future EBIT and FCF profitability for the company.\nHuge Improvement in Operating Leverage\n\nLTM Total operating expenses margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nImportantly, the company has also been able to significantly improve its operating leverage that we believe is likely to continue moving forward. Therefore, we think that while FUBO continues to invest in its growth, we are quietly confident that the company is on track for profitability in the years ahead.\n\nProjected revenue mean consensus, projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\n\nProjected EBIT margin, projected EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nAs a result, while we expect FUBO to continue posting rapid revenue growth in the next few years, we are also expecting the company to significantly improve its bottom line, and turn GAAP EBITDA profitable by the end of FY 25. Therefore, we consider the opportunity to invest in FUBO is still in its early stages of growth, and would highly encourage investors to take advantage by adding this emerging sports streaming leader to their portfolio.\nValuations\n\nPeers valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile we don’t expect FUBO to be valued as high as ROKU right now, as ROKU’s competitive position and profitability are certainly in much better shape than FUBO at this point in time, we remain optimistic of the potential for FUBO to be revalued much higher in the future. While investors may consider Netflix (NFLX) as attractively valued (which we think it is in ourrecent article here), we don’t consider FUBO as expensive either at the current price level as we are confident that the company could deliver on its growth expectations ahead that would therefore make it highly attractive as we could see from the chart.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\n\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we think investors may continue to experience high volatility when holding on to FUBO, we strongly encourage investors to have a long term perspective. We have managed to add more positions in the recent rotation at about $25, which we considered as a highly important support level that has attracted buying interest in the past. We expect the 50W moving average to continue supporting the stock’s advance moving ahead, and investors who do not have a full position should take advantage to add whenever the stock retraces to its 50W. While the entry point is not optimal now, we do not think it affects our long term valuations as well as our bullish thesis and therefore reiterate our bullish thesis on FUBO.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":156241007,"gmtCreate":1625227362409,"gmtModify":1703738801844,"author":{"id":"3574153465919325","authorId":"3574153465919325","authorIdStr":"3574153465919325","name":"Rachealrach","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9722f3f6f40f1744a387a53da568a40a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574153465919325"},"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156241007","repostId":1162611368,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":156671674,"gmtCreate":1625221793598,"gmtModify":1703738658936,"author":{"id":"3583568085402852","authorId":"3583568085402852","authorIdStr":"3583568085402852","name":"IsaacYap90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f66d0266826bb209ee22688d7bbde5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583568085402852"},"htmlText":"The 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