Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
Gold market news analysis for July 21st: On Tuesday during the early Asian session, spot gold continued to hover near the $4,000 mark. Spot gold closed at $4,007.32 per ounce on Monday, July 20th, down approximately 0.2%, while the August futures contract also dipped slightly by about 0.1% to around $4,015.90. This movement occurred against a backdrop of sharply escalating tensions in the Middle East, with ongoing US-Iran conflict and Houthi rebels announcing a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, which briefly pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns. Concurrently, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have notably strengthened. As a non-yielding asset, gold's appeal diminishes in a high-interest-rate environment. Although geopolitical risks would typically provide support, the interplay of multiple factors has led to a cautious pullback in the gold price in the short term.
Gold technical analysis: At the start of this week, following last week's rebound, gold opened with a gap down but subsequently rose again. Currently, the price area between $3,960 and $3,940 may constitute strategic support. Once the market begins to realize that the impact of geopolitical tensions on global growth could ultimately outweigh their effect on inflation, this zone might become the foundation for re-establishing buying interest. From a technical perspective, gold appears to be in an accumulation phase, potentially gathering strength for a subsequent upward move. Looking at the larger daily cycle, the focus is on which side, bulls or bears, can achieve a decisive breakout with increased volume first. The previous oversold rebound on the daily chart has concluded, with the price falling below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, which now act as strong resistance. The Bollinger Bands are contracting and narrowing, indicating the market has entered a range-bound consolidation phase. The intraday pivot level is $4,020-4,025; a sustained break above this resistance is needed to open up room for a rebound towards $4,040-4,060. The core defensive support below is at $4,980-3,970; a decisive break below this level would likely see the price retest the key previous low around $3,960.
From the 4-hour gold chart, bears have repeatedly attempted to push gold below $4,000, but buying interest consistently emerges in the $3,980 to $3,960 zone, suggesting a new support level is forming. Since the beginning of this year, gold has maintained a downtrend characterized by "lower highs and lower lows," with short-term trend-following trades still holding an advantage. For the early part of the week, key resistance levels to watch above are $4,023 and $4,040. Examining the shorter-term minor cycle, the slight decline at this morning's opening essentially confirmed the short-term low around $3,980. Therefore, the key support levels to monitor at the start of the week are $3,980 and $3,960, while resistance levels above are at $4,040 and $4,050. The intraday rhythm is quite clear: the Asian and European sessions are likely to see a corrective, range-bound rebound. The US session is crucial, with the focus on whether the $4,050 resistance can be broken. If this resistance level remains unbroken, expectations for a significant rally should be tempered, as the market will likely retreat again and continue its weak, range-bound movement. In summary, the suggested short-term trading strategy for gold today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is focused on the $4,040-4,070 zone, while key short-term support is focused on the $3,990-3,960 zone.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Crude oil market news analysis: In the early Asian session on Tuesday (Beijing time, July 21st), prices were primarily influenced by the sharply escalating situation in the Middle East. Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched attacks on US military assets in the region, and Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, exacerbating inflation concerns and reinforcing market expectations for "interest rates staying higher for longer." Oil prices closed over 1% higher on Monday after volatile trading. Brent crude rose 0.94% to $88.91 per barrel, having touched a monthly high of $91.04 intraday. US crude oil rose 0.79% to $82.42, reaching an intraday monthly high of $84.60. The gains were partly offset by hopes for renewed US-Iran negotiations, which tempered supply concerns stemming from the Houthi blockade announcement.
Crude oil technical analysis: From a daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downwards, indicating the medium-term objective trend direction is entering a downtrend. The oil price has broken below the lower support boundary of a multi-month consolidation, suggesting bearish momentum is strengthening. It is anticipated that the medium-term price movement will primarily follow a downward rhythm. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, the crude oil price has maintained a high-level consolidation rhythm for four consecutive trading sessions. The short-term subjective and objective trend has shifted into a consolidation phase, although the primary trend direction remains upward. Momentum is seesawing between bulls and bears, but the overall underlying rhythm remains largely unchanged. It is expected that intraday oil price movements will likely maintain an upward bias. In summary, the suggested trading strategy for crude oil today is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is focused on the $84.5-86.0 zone, while key short-term support is focused on the $81.0-80.0 zone.
Comments