Frankly, I was discussing this arbitrage opportunity with some friends around noon; it should be the first arbitrage opportunity of 2026 (not counting the usual small gains from the silver fund).
Here's the situation: I checked the midday market update at the time (before the policy adjustment on margin trading and securities lending was announced).
The original flash news read: "Midday Review: The ChiNext Index rose over 2% in the morning session, with more than 4,700 stocks advancing across the board; AI applications continued to surge, with over twenty constituent stocks hitting the daily limit."
I personally suspect that a significant portion of today's rally in AI applications was fueled by money from retail fund investors who entered on Monday, as funds from fund distribution channels typically become available for fund managers to use by around Wednesday.
Rumors circulated on Monday about single-day sales reaching 120 billion yuan, which the fund company denied. However, judging by the popularity on several distribution platforms, this fund ranked first simultaneously across multiple fund sales platforms.
While the actual single-day sales figure might not be as exaggerated as 120 billion yuan, it's reasonable to infer that the sales amount was likely substantial.
This fund is heavily weighted in media or AI application sectors, and it's speculated that it will continue this strategy going forward—meaning that after receiving the money, it will likely continue building positions in media or AI applications.
In fact, the simplest arbitrage play would have been this: after the news broke on Monday evening, if one wanted to arbitrage, they should have positioned themselves in media or AI application-related sector stocks or ETFs on Tuesday, anticipating that the fund manager would receive the subscription funds from retail investors on Wednesday (today) and potentially start building positions in media or AI application-related sectors.
Even if you had entered a position yesterday and executed a quick in-and-out ultra-short-term trade by selling today, it would have been entirely feasible.
After our discussion, we all felt a bit of regret. My friends and I shared the view: this might have been the first quick and straightforward arbitrage opportunity of 2026, but unfortunately, we didn't participate. Ah, it's a bit disheartening.
This serves as my brief review of the arbitrage opportunity that I missed.
Figure two is a stock market joke from this afternoon: after the adjustment to the margin trading policy, older stocks actually fell more than smaller stocks. Just take a look for amusement. Disclaimer: I do not hold any of the individual stocks mentioned in the image.
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