Haitong International released a research report stating that in November 2025, the entire industry's express delivery volume increased by 5% year-on-year, continuing to maintain single-digit growth. During the E-commerce Double Eleven promotional period, the volume grew by 9% year-on-year, slowing from the 21% growth in average daily volume seen during the 2024 promotion. The average daily volume during the promotion was 1.18 times the usual daily volume, and the peak single-day volume increased by 6.6% year-on-year; both metrics have narrowed for three consecutive years, reflecting the diminishing marginal effect of major promotions on driving consumption. In contrast, the industry's anti-inner-rolling efforts have effectively increased revenue per parcel. The revenue per parcel for YTO Express, Yunda Holdings, and STO Express in November increased cumulatively by RMB 0.16, RMB 0.25, and RMB 0.44 respectively compared to July. It is expected that the profit recovery trend will continue in Q4 2025, and the sustainability of future profit recovery depends on the persistence of the anti-inner-rolling policies in the express delivery industry.
Express delivery volume growth slowed to single digits in Q4, and the peak effect of the Double Eleven promotion continued to smooth out. In November 2025, the entire industry's express delivery volume increased by 5% year-on-year, maintaining single-digit growth. Over the past two years, lightweight and small parcels were a key driver maintaining relatively fast volume growth. Since July 2025, effective anti-inner-rolling measures in the express delivery sector have driven an industry-wide price recovery for e-commerce parcels, which is speculated to potentially impact the growth trend of lightweight small parcels and enhance the quality of express delivery demand. During the E-commerce Double Eleven promotional period, volume grew by 9% year-on-year, slowing from the 21% growth in average daily volume during the 2024 promotion. This slowdown may stem from the high base created by the significant extension of the 2024 promotion period and the further advancement of the 2025 promotion start date, which pulled volume forward.
Haitong International pointed out that the average daily volume during the promotion was 1.18 times the usual daily volume, and the peak single-day volume increased by 6.6% year-on-year; both have narrowed for three consecutive years. This reflects the continuing weakening marginal effect of major promotions on stimulating consumption. Behind this trend may be the ongoing dispersion of consumption due to routine promotions and live-streaming commerce, as well as the trade-in policies implemented over the past year, which have dispersed the large-appliance purchases traditionally concentrated during major promotions. These factors have also led to smaller price increases for express delivery services compared to previous years.
Anti-inner-rolling implementation has been forceful and effects are apparent, with market concentration slowing and profitability beginning to recover. 1) Anti-inner-rolling has effectively increased revenue per parcel: The revenue per parcel for YTO Express, Yunda Holdings, and STO Express in November increased cumulatively by RMB 0.16, RMB 0.25, and RMB 0.44 respectively compared to July. 2) Industry concentration has slowed under anti-inner-rolling: The industry's CR8 was 86.9 in November, unchanged from September. Specifically, the market shares of ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Holdings, STO Express, and J&T Express in Q3 2025 were 19.4%, 15.6%, 13.0%, 13.2%, and 11.3% respectively, changing by -0.1, -0.4, -0.2, +0.2, and +0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. YTO Express's market share has seen a slight rebound since Q4 2025, reflecting the company's faster volume recovery and growth compared to the industry, aided by its AI-enabled full-link capabilities and infrastructure upgrades. STO Express, through its acquisition of Daniao Logistics, saw its market share rise to third in the industry and maintained an upward trend in November. 3) Anti-inner-rolling drives profitability recovery: The net profit margins for ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Holdings, and STO Express in Q3 2025 changed by -0.9, +0.07, -1.5, and +0.5 percentage points year-on-year respectively, and by +4.8, +0.5, -0.07, and +0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter respectively. Leading companies generally achieved profitability recovery, and the profit recovery trend is expected to continue in Q4. The sustainability of future profitability recovery depends on the persistence of anti-inner-rolling policies in the express delivery industry.
The anti-inner-rolling measures in the express delivery sector have shown good results; it is advised to monitor regulatory intensity and corporate competition strategy trends. The express delivery industry implemented anti-inner-rolling measures in 2021, which led to a dual recovery in both performance and valuation for e-commerce express companies. This success was driven by the joint efforts of the Postal Bureau ensuring network stability, the firm profit recovery goals of leading enterprises, and policies safeguarding courier rights. The current round of anti-inner-rolling was initiated by the State Post Bureau emphasizing clear opposition to "inner-rolling" competition. Local postal bureaus have effectively promoted supervision through methods like "price locking" and "market share locking," with core production areas achieving effective price increases first, which then gradually spread to other key regions. Given the positive results achieved in this round of anti-inner-rolling and the positive feedback effect following the profit recovery of express companies, it is expected that anti-inner-rolling policies are likely to persist. This would ensure healthy industry competition and continued profitability recovery based on steady volume growth. Future focus should be on the intensity of anti-inner-rolling regulations and trends in corporate competition strategies.
Investment recommendation: Continue to be optimistic about the express delivery sector, driven by anti-inner-rolling measures leading to profit recovery for e-commerce express companies. Recommend leading enterprise ZTO Express-W (02057) and J&T Express-W (01519), which shows improving domestic profitability and high overseas volume growth. SF Holding (06936) has activated its operational mechanisms, driving volume growth that consistently outperforms peers. Short-term earnings volatility is primarily due to the company's proactive market expansion strategy and necessary long-term strategic investments. Effects are expected to materialize as the company strengthens cost control. Suggest monitoring the timing for bottom-fishing in the leader of time-sensitive express delivery. Maintain Outperform ratings on ZTO Express-W (02057), J&T Express-W (01519), and SF Holding (06936).
Risk warnings include economic fluctuations, changes in industry policies, irrational competition, and fuel price volatility.
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