Gold futures experienced a notable decline on September 14th, with COMEX gold opening lower and continuing its downward trajectory throughout the session. The precious metal dipped below the 4,300-point mark during intraday trading before settling at $4,340.0 per ounce, representing a decrease of 1.56%. Meanwhile, the SHFE gold night session on the domestic front showed relative resilience, opening lower but gradually recovering to close at 933.98 yuan per gram, down 1.10%.
The primary catalyst behind this downward movement stems from what market observers describe as a "dual squeeze" effect, combining surging oil prices with escalating Treasury bond yields. On Monday, Brent crude oil broke through the $108 per barrel threshold, while WTI firmly established itself above the $100 mark. The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East added further complexity as Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline was attacked and forced to suspend operations. Additionally, Houthi rebels targeted Saudi energy infrastructure, while the scheduled meeting regarding commercial shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, planned for that day in Oman, was postponed. These developments effectively stalled diplomatic mediation efforts.
The surge in oil prices has directly elevated inflation expectations, suggesting that major global central banks may need to adopt more restrictive monetary policies to contain rising price pressures. This narrative gained further traction following the previous Friday's release of US economic data, which showed August CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month, while core CPI increased 0.3% - both figures exceeding market expectations and reinforcing the case for additional interest rate hikes.
Treasury yields have emerged as another significant obstacle weighing on gold prices. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed the 5% threshold during trading, marking its highest level since 2023. Concurrently, the US dollar index climbed to approximately 99.5, creating additional headwinds for gold, which is priced in dollars, thereby diminishing its appeal to international investors holding other currencies.
Looking ahead, market analysts anticipate that gold prices may continue their volatile, downward-biased trading pattern in the near term, particularly given the unstable geopolitical environment. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and accompanying statement, scheduled for release in the early hours of Thursday, are likely to serve as the critical determinant for whether gold can stabilize. Should the Fed implement a rate hike without signaling sustained tightening measures, markets might interpret this as an "exhaustion of negative factors," potentially opening a window for gold to recover. Conversely, if the Fed maintains its hawkish stance while Treasury yields remain above 5%, gold prices could face further downside pressure in the coming sessions.
Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Analyst: Shi Yueming
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