Financial institution Goldman Sachs has revised its crude oil price forecasts higher, citing expectations that disruptions to shipping in the Middle East will persist well into next year.
The bank now projects Brent crude to average $85 per barrel in December 2026 and $80 per barrel in 2027, representing an upward adjustment of $5 per barrel for both periods. Concurrently, the outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has been set at $80 per barrel for December 2026 and $75 per barrel for the following year.
According to analysts led by Daan Struyven, the magnitude of this revision is intentionally limited. Their analysis indicates that commercial onshore inventories within the OECD have barely been drawn down since the onset of the conflict, suggesting that the actual crude supply deficit is narrower than market participants had previously anticipated.
Even if shipping obstructions continue, the experts anticipate that Middle Eastern supply can adapt. They point to an expected expansion in "shadow fleet" crude flows and the scheduled commissioning of several new pipelines by the end of 2027 as key factors that will help offset the logistical challenges.
Nevertheless, the risks to oil prices remain heavily skewed to the upside, with the most pronounced threats materialising in the short term.
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