Copper: Overnight, domestic and international copper prices showed a firming trend with fluctuations, and the import window for domestic refined copper briefly opened. Macroeconomic factors include the potential imposition of a 10% global tariff by the Trump administration, scheduled for Tuesday, with uncertainty over whether the rate could rise further to 15%. Such unpredictable tariff actions by the U.S. government are exacerbating global economic uncertainty. Domestically, China's Ministry of Commerce has responded to the U.S. tariff adjustments, stating that it will decide on countermeasures, including adjustments to tariffs on U.S.-origin fentanyl and retaliatory tariffs, as appropriate. On the inventory front, LME copper stocks increased by 1,350 tons to 243,175 tons. Notably, there was a significant inflow into LME warehouses in the Americas during the holiday period, possibly due to a sharp narrowing of the Comex-LME price spread. Comex copper inventories rose by 1,024 tons to 545,736 tons. According to SMM data on Tuesday, social inventories of copper in mainstream domestic regions increased by over 150,000 tons during the holiday to 508,500 tons. Post-holiday inventory accumulation will be closely monitored. Demand-side attention will focus on the pace of work resumption after the holiday. In the short term, copper prices are expected to experience wide fluctuations at high levels, with the risk of a secondary correction driven by a potential retreat in macroeconomic sentiment and inventory pressure. However, the core drivers supporting copper price increases—the supply gap due to insufficient global copper mining capital expenditures and demand growth from new energy and AI computing infrastructure—remain fundamentally unchanged. Therefore, if copper prices undergo a short-term deep correction due to weaker macro and fundamental realities post-holiday, it may present a golden opportunity to establish long-term long positions.
Nickel & Stainless Steel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 3.64% to $17,915 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased 1.65% to 140,330 yuan per ton. LME inventories decreased by 378 tons to 287,328 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 534 tons to 51,924 tons. The LME 0-3 month backwardation remained negative, and import nickel premiums held steady at 50 yuan per ton. Prior to the holiday, Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), revealed that approved nickel ore production quotas are between 260 million and 270 million tons, significantly lower than the previous year's RKAB production targets. According to Ferro-Alloys Online, an Indonesian nickel pig iron plant has reduced output due to tight nickel ore supply and furnace maintenance, with an estimated impact of 30,000–40,000 physical tons per month. Reuters reported that following another tailings landslide, Indonesian Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq is considering revoking the environmental permit for Tsingshan New Energy Co., Ltd. Fundamentally, nickel ore premiums are strengthening, and nickel pig iron prices are fluctuating at high levels. SMM data indicates declines in Indonesia's nickel ore inventory indices for pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical processes, primarily due to monitoring system delays and new project commissioning. Combined with expectations of tightened Indonesian quotas, concerns over tight resource supply may persist, pushing up cost support boundaries. While phased demand has weakened sequentially, cost support remains robust. Amid ongoing disruptions from Indonesian news, light long positions near cost levels warrant attention. If visible inventories show significant drawdowns, it could provide further positive feedback to prices. However, overseas macroeconomic risks require vigilance.
Alumina, Primary Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy: On the first trading day post-holiday, alumina prices weakened with fluctuations. Overnight, AO2605 closed at 2,837 yuan per ton, down 0.39%, with open interest increasing by 13,235 lots to 299,000 lots. SHFE aluminum also weakened, with AL2603 closing at 23,550 yuan per ton, down 0.55%, and open interest rising by 13,979 lots to 231,000 lots. Aluminum alloy prices edged lower, with the main contract AD2604 closing at 22,275 yuan per ton, down 0.42%, and open interest decreasing by 6 lots to 11,534 lots. Spot-wise, SMM alumina prices retreated to 2,617 yuan per ton. Aluminum ingot spot discounts widened to 160 yuan per ton. Foshan A00 aluminum prices rose to 23,470 yuan per ton, at an 80 yuan per ton premium over Wuxi A00. Aluminum billet processing fees remained stable in most regions, with increases of 20–50 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, Nanchang, Guangdong, and Wuxi. Aluminum rod processing fees for the 1A60 series held steady, while low-carbon aluminum rod fees increased by 260 yuan per ton. Rising overseas alumina prices and domestic primary aluminum smelters' winter raw material stockpiling supported alumina futures. However, high social inventories and pressure from expiring warehouse receipt cancellations continue to cap gains. During the holiday, U.S.-Iran tensions escalated, adding uncertainty, and Trump's renewed tariff announcements stirred overseas macroeconomic sentiment, causing fluctuations in international markets. Post-holiday, SHFE aluminum may see limited short-term catch-up gains. The extent of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation after any price correction will determine the rebound level; if accumulation exceeds expectations, it may suppress the pace of recovery. Key factors to watch include overseas news disruptions, post-holiday downstream work resumption, and aluminum ingot inventory trends.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: On the first post-holiday trading day, industrial silicon prices firmed with fluctuations. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,410 yuan per ton, up 0.54% intraday, with open interest increasing by 7,958 lots to 294,000 lots. Baichuan's spot reference price for industrial silicon held steady at 9,458 yuan per ton compared to the pre-holiday session. The lowest deliverable grade price remained at 8,850 yuan per ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 440 yuan per ton. Polysilicon prices weakened, with the main contract 2605 closing at 47,000 yuan per ton, down 4.03% intraday, and open interest rising by 885 lots to 37,729 lots. Baichuan's price for N-type polysilicon dropped to 53,000 yuan per ton, with the lowest deliverable grade also at 53,000 yuan per ton, and the spot premium widening to 6,000 yuan per ton. Yunnan producers completed pre-holiday rush orders and will enter a full production halt post-holiday. A major Xinjiang plant, idled pre-holiday, faces significant short-term restart challenges. Industrial silicon supply has narrative support, but limited demand caps upside potential. Pre-holiday, polysilicon market new orders stalled, and wafer prices stabilized amid僵持 transactions. Post-holiday, market focus shifts to peak season demand expectations and clarity on industry policy signals. Short-term weakness is expected, with risks of further corrections if policy or demand expectations disappoint.
Lithium Carbonate: Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures 2605 surged 10.56% to 164,120 yuan per ton. Spot prices saw battery-grade lithium carbonate average rise by 8,250 yuan per ton to 152,000 yuan per ton, industrial-grade by 8,250 yuan per ton to 148,500 yuan per ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) by 7,000 yuan per ton to 144,500 yuan per ton. Warehouse receipt inventories increased by 96 tons to 38,855 tons. News-wise, on February 19, 2026, buoyed by market recovery, Pilbara Minerals (PLS) announced plans to restart the Ngungaju lithium mine plant in Pilgangoora, Western Australia (annual capacity ~200,000 tons) in July, with full-scale preparations for the approximately four-month restart underway. U.S. media reported that the U.S. government is considering new tariffs on about six industries, including large batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and grid and telecom equipment, citing "national security" concerns. On the supply side, February lithium carbonate production is forecast to drop 16.3% month-on-month to 81,930 tons, with declines across all raw material sources. Demand-side, February ternary material output is expected to fall 14.6% month-on-month to 69,250 tons, and lithium iron phosphate output to decrease 10.7% to 354,000 tons. Inventory-wise, weekly social inventories of lithium carbonate fell by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, with downstream stocks up 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, other segments down 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons, and upstream stocks down 647 tons to 18,356 tons. Post-holiday, lithium carbonate prices surged on the first trading day, driven by downstream production expectations and African export rumors. Based on February output projections, short-term inventories may continue declining, providing significant bullish support. However, January Chilean shipment data showed a substantial month-on-month increase, which, while unsustainable in scale, may gradually exert supply pressure domestically. Additionally, domestic production is set to resume in March, with demand-side performance becoming critical.
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