Abstract
Restaurant Brands International will report Q4 2025 results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview synthesizes recent financial performance, company guidance, and street expectations to frame likely outcomes and near-term stock drivers.
Market Forecast
Consensus modeled from the company’s latest disclosures points to Q4 2025 revenue of $2.41 billion (+6.14% YoY), EBIT of $0.66 billion (+13.87% YoY), and adjusted EPS of $0.95 (+20.74% YoY); margin commentary implies a stable to slightly higher gross profit margin and improving net profitability versus last year. Tim Hortons remains the primary revenue engine, with momentum in Burger King turnaround efforts, Popeyes product innovation, and Firehouse Subs unit growth supporting consolidated trends into Q4 2025. The most promising segment is Tim Hortons, contributing an estimated $1.13 billion in last quarter’s revenue and demonstrating resilient traffic and mix; its sustained expansion and operational efficiency continue to provide scale and margin leverage on a YoY basis.
Last Quarter Review
In Q3 2025, Restaurant Brands International delivered revenue of $2.45 billion (+6.90% YoY), a gross profit margin of 34.42%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.32 billion, a net profit margin of 12.86%, and adjusted EPS of $1.03 (+10.75% YoY). A key operational highlight was solid EPS delivery that exceeded consensus expectations, supported by disciplined cost control and favorable sales mix offsetting inflationary inputs to sustain margins. Main business highlights showed Tim Hortons leading with $1.13 billion in revenue, while Burger King reached $0.39 billion, international at $0.27 billion, Popeyes at $0.20 billion, Firehouse Subs at $0.06 billion, and Restaurant Holdings at $0.46 billion, illustrating a balanced but Tim Hortons-weighted revenue structure on a YoY growing base.
Current Quarter Outlook
Tim Hortons (Main Business)
Tim Hortons remains the anchor of Restaurant Brands International’s commercial engine. The brand’s scale in Canada, growing international footprint, and active product pipeline (hot beverages, cold beverages, baked goods, breakfast, and daypart extensions) continue to underpin steady same-store sales and unit economics. In Q4, pricing normalization and ticket resilience are expected to support comparable sales, while store modernization and drive-thru efficiency enhance throughput and labor productivity. Margin dynamics should benefit from procurement efficiencies and platform innovation, with Q4 gross profit margin likely to track near the prior quarter’s level given the company’s emphasis on cost control and operational consistency. Investors will watch whether cold beverage momentum carries into seasonally cooler months and how digital engagement and loyalty programs sustain order frequency; a constructive outcome would reinforce the EPS forecast at $0.95 and support EBIT growth of $0.66 billion.
Burger King and Systemwide Turnaround
Burger King’s turnaround is a central narrative for Q4, with ongoing investments in remodels, operational standards, and marketing that prioritizes core menu availability and service speed. The brand’s improved franchise health and store revitalization are intended to stabilize comps and reduce volatility, which is relevant for consolidated earnings sensitivity. In the quarter, operational progress in North America, combined with steady international contributions, can provide a constructive underpinning to EBIT growth if unit churn remains lower and labor scheduling tightens. If promotions are calibrated to protect margin while keeping value perception intact, Burger King can be a neutral-to-positive contributor in Q4, and any evident sequential comp improvement would be read positively for the multi-quarter thesis.
Popeyes and Firehouse Subs (Most Promising Growth Businesses)
Popeyes is positioned to capture demand via product innovation and category differentiation, building on wins around chicken sandwiches, limited-time offerings, and broader menu variety. Unit pipeline remains active, and franchise interest has been healthy, which supports system growth and scale economics. In Q4, the focus is on maintaining traffic without overly diluting margin through discounts; targeted promotions and operations discipline should keep average check satisfactory while helping dine-in and off-premise balance. Firehouse Subs, though smaller, benefits from ongoing unit expansion and brand awareness gains in North America; consistent execution with measured marketing supports volume growth. Together, these brands can deliver incremental revenue that is meaningful for consolidated growth rates without significantly pressuring group margins, and their sustained YoY expansion has been a supportive point for investors tracking long-term mix shift.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The primary stock drivers are the durability of consolidated margins and the visibility of EBIT and EPS delivery versus expectations. Investors will monitor whether the company sustains a gross profit margin near 34.42% while improving net profit margin above the Q3 print of 12.86%, as this would validate cost initiatives and operational resilience. The cadence of Burger King’s turnaround remains a sensitive variable; clear signals of comp stability, reduced closures, and franchise health would improve sentiment. Unit expansion across Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, coupled with Tim Hortons’ steady comp trends, should inform the sustainability of the $2.41 billion revenue forecast and the $0.95 adjusted EPS estimate. Any evidence of favorable product mix, digital order penetration, and successful limited-time offerings can provide a positive skew to near-term results.
Analyst Opinions
Most recent institutional commentary skews mildly bullish, with the majority highlighting resilience in Tim Hortons and improving Burger King traction; this tilt reflects constructive expectations for EPS and EBIT relative to consensus. On balance, analysts point to operational discipline and capital allocation consistency as supportive of earnings quality, while acknowledging that competitive intensity requires continued marketing efficiency. Several well-followed sell-side teams emphasize that the $2.41 billion revenue estimate and $0.95 EPS forecast appear attainable given Q3’s execution and the mix of initiatives in flight, and they expect Q4 to demonstrate sequential consistency. The prevailing view cautions that deviations from the Burger King recovery path could introduce short-term noise, but franchise health metrics and unit investment plans are tracking acceptably against targets. Overall, the majority stance anticipates Q4 results at or slightly above modeled expectations, with a focus on margin stability, steady comp trends at Tim Hortons, and a pragmatically paced Burger King recovery that supports the consolidated outlook.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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