Since the outbreak of conflict, Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has drastically reduced shipping traffic to a trickle. A small number of vessels have managed to pass through, indicating that Tehran is selectively permitting the safe passage of some non-Iranian oil tankers through negotiations. Dozens of ships navigating the Gulf have indicated Chinese ownership or Chinese crew in their vessel tracking data, seeking safe transit.
On March 11, 2026, commercial vessels were located off the coast of Dubai. Three merchant ships were attacked in the Gulf region that day, with one catching fire. Iran is increasing strikes against neighboring oil-exporting countries, threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and dragging the global energy economy into crisis. As the Middle East conflict entered its third week, Iran's de facto blockade of the strait has sparked market fears of potentially the most severe global oil supply disruption in history.
Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that only 21 tankers have transited the passage since the conflict began on February 28, compared to a pre-war daily volume exceeding 100 vessels, bringing shipping to a near standstill. Most vessels are idling outside the Strait of Hormuz, leaving thousands of seafarers stranded on ships in the Gulf. Some ships have begun diverting to alternative ports.
Maritime intelligence company Windward reported on Sunday that approximately 400 vessels were active in the Sea of Oman, with a significant backlog of ships waiting near this critical chokepoint. Maritime analysts stated that despite Iran's strict control over the strait, a limited number of vessels have passed under varying circumstances, suggesting Tehran is selectively allowing passage for some non-Iranian oil cargoes through negotiation.
The following details vessel movements from specific countries through this crucial energy corridor since the conflict began:
**China** Tehran has largely refrained from targeting vessels associated with China. Windward data shows dozens of ships have included information identifying Chinese owners or crew in their Automatic Identification System (AIS) data while sailing in the Gulf. Windward analysts noted in a report last week that this pattern suggests an informal screening mechanism is in place, with vessels signaling Chinese affiliation attempting to demonstrate neutrality and avoid becoming targets. Reports indicate Beijing is negotiating with Iran to secure passage approvals for crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers. Iran has continued shipping millions of barrels of crude oil to China since the conflict started.
Data from Lloyd's List Intelligence shows that 11 vessels linked to China transited the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and 15, mostly general cargo ships, while oil tankers from major Chinese owners continue to avoid the route. Earlier this month, Chinese state-owned COSCO Shipping suspended all new bookings to and from Middle Eastern ports. However, signaling a Chinese connection is not an absolute guarantee of safe passage. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported that on March 12, a vessel broadcasting "Chinese Owner" in its AIS was hit by shrapnel while sailing from the Middle East Gulf to Jebel Ali, UAE, an incident that has further impeded the passage of Chinese-flagged vessels.
**Greece** Athens-based Dynacom Tankers Management was among the first major operators to test the route. Around March 8, the Liberia-flagged Suezmax tanker *Shen Long*, managed by Dynacom, transited the strait and arrived at anchorage off Mumbai carrying approximately one million barrels of Saudi crude. Another tanker, the *Smyrna*, also carrying Saudi crude, transited the strait last week and anchored off Mumbai. Lloyd's List Intelligence stated it was unclear if the *Smyrna* received safe passage because its cargo was destined for India.
**India** Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated that direct talks with Tehran have yielded results. Earlier this week he told the Financial Times, "I am currently in communication with them, and the dialogue has produced some outcomes. Since it is effective, I will naturally continue." On March 12, 2026, the Liberia-flagged tanker *Shen Long* docked at Mumbai port, India, carrying crude oil. It was one of the first vessels to reach India after the Middle East crisis began, having traveled from Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura port through the Strait of Hormuz. Two Indian-flagged vessels carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), owned by The Shipping Corporation of India, were also granted passage, with one arriving on Sunday and the second expected on Tuesday. CNBC learned that approximately 22 vessels carrying crude oil, LPG, and LNG remain at anchor near the strait, awaiting confirmation for safe passage.
**Pakistan, Turkey** Data from MarineTraffic, part of shipping analytics firm Kpler, showed that just on Monday, a Pakistan-flagged Aframax tanker carrying Abu Dhabi crude became the first publicly confirmed non-Iranian merchant vessel to transit the chokepoint. The firm said this indicates "some cargoes may be receiving safe passage through negotiation." Turkish authorities also confirmed that a Turkish-flagged vessel was permitted to pass after calling at an Iranian port, but 14 other Turkish vessels remain in the area awaiting permission to transit.
**"Random" Attacks and Route Diversions** The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to global energy transport due to Iran's continued sporadic attacks on shipping. Maritime analysts say the attacks on Gulf shipping appear "random" and without a clear pattern, aimed at creating chaos and disruption rather than targeting specific nationalities or vessel types. Data from the International Maritime Organization shows at least 16 vessels have been attacked near the UAE's Port of Fujairah, Iraq's Khor Al-Zubair port, and in waters of the Sea of Oman. Windward stated that several attacked vessels were linked to Western or Gulf states, including connections to the US, UAE, and UK through ownership or registration. Other attacked vessels have hailed from Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil, indicating targets are busy commercial shipping lanes rather than a single nationality or operator.
Bridget Diakun, Senior Risk and Compliance Analyst at Lloyd's List Intelligence, said there is no discernible pattern to the attacks, "making it extremely difficult for ship operators planning transit to determine why some vessels are attacked while others pass safely." An analyst at the Atlantic Council stated the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen in the short term. Shipowners are urgently seeking alternative routes, contingency ports, or overland transport, causing cascading congestion at several secondary hubs in the region. When the conflict began, approximately 81 container ships were scheduled to call at ports along the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, 43 have diverted to other ports in the Gulf, while the remainder have left the region entirely. Cargo is being rerouted to ports outside the strait, mainly Fujairah and Khor Fakkan in the UAE and Sohar in Oman, for onward trucking to final destinations.
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