On Friday, January 16th, the three major A-share indices experienced a collective slight pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index narrowly holding above the 4,100-point mark. At the close, the Shanghai Composite was down 0.26% at 4,101.91 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 0.20%. The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 3.0568 trillion yuan, an increase of 118 billion yuan from the previous session.
In terms of market sectors, the electronics板块 led the gains against the broader market trend. The Electronic ETF (515260), which gathers core leaders in the electronics sector, remained actively in positive territory throughout the day, with its on-market price ultimately closing up 2.7%. The Intelligent Manufacturing ETF (516800), heavily weighted in electronics and computers, saw its on-market price rise by 2.42%. Some stocks in the new energy and new materials sectors also performed notably, with the New Materials ETF (516360) and the Intelligent Electric Vehicle ETF (516380) both closing up over 1%.
On the downside, the AI healthcare concept continued to "cool down," with the largest Healthcare ETF (512170) by market-wide scale falling 2.6%. AI application概念股 retreated across the board. The ChiNext AI ETF (159363), which has a dual focus on "computing power + AI applications," fell 1.81% on-market, testing its five-day moving average.
Regarding the Hong Kong market, overall performance was weak, although Hong Kong chip stocks rose against the trend. The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131), the first ETF in the entire market focusing on the "Hong Kong chip" industry chain, opened higher but weakened震荡 throughout the morning session, yet still managed to close up 0.31%.
On the news front, the central bank deployed a "combination of measures" to support high-quality economic development. These included: cutting the relending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points; merging and utilizing the quotas for支农支小 relending and rediscounting, increasing the支农支小 relending quota by 500 billion yuan, and earmarking 1 trillion yuan within the total quota specifically for private enterprise relending, focusing on supporting small and medium-sized private enterprises; increasing the quota for technological innovation and technological transformation relending by 400 billion yuan and expanding its scope of support; broadening the supported areas under the carbon reduction support工具; and lowering the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property mortgages to 30%. Furthermore, the central bank indicated that there is still some room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year.
Xiangcai Securities pointed out that the central bank's announcement of this strategic plan, coupled with the rapid implementation of related policies, essentially follows high-level decisions to intensify counter-cyclical and跨周期 adjustments. This is expected to help support a good start and solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan".
Looking ahead, China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) stated that A-shares are expected to see considerable incremental funds in 2026, which could sustain a slow-bull market. The main market矛盾 in 2026 is anticipated to shift towards景气 verification and earnings delivery. Long-term funds will provide a safety cushion, while active funds from public and private offerings are likely to further strengthen the dual主线行情 of "technology + resources". Meanwhile, sector轮动 might accelerate.
[ETF Insights Hot Topic Review] focuses on the trading and fundamental situations of industry-themed ETFs like Electronics, Hong Kong Information Technology, and ChiNext AI.
First, TSMC's earnings far exceeded expectations! Semiconductors surged against the market trend, with the Electronic ETF (515260) jumping 2.7% at the close and its premium soaring! Stocks like Gigadevice Semiconductors hit the 10% upper limit.
The electronics板块 led the gains among all A-share industries. The Electronic ETF (515260), which pools core leaders in the electronics sector, remained actively in positive territory all day, finally closing up 2.7% and securing a three-day winning streak! The premium surged at the close, reaching a high of 0.93%, indicating stronger buying interest.
Looking at细分 segments, semiconductor leaders notably led the gains, with JCET Group, Gigadevice Semiconductors, and Tongfu Microelectronics hitting the 10% upper limit, and China Resources Microelectronics rising over 13%. Among optical and photonic leaders, Sanan Optoelectronics hit the 10% limit. In consumer electronics, Anker Innovations rose over 5%, and工业富联 gained over 4%. For PCBs, Shennan Circuits rose over 4%, while沪电股份 increased over 1%.
From a capital flow perspective, the electronics板块 saw net主力的资金 inflows of 30.511 billion yuan, ranking first among the 31 Shenwan primary industries in terms of capital attraction! Constituents of the Electronic ETF, Gigadevice Semiconductors and JCET Group, attracted 4.538 billion yuan and 3.181 billion yuan respectively, taking the top two spots on the A-share capital attraction list. Tongfu Microelectronics attracted 1.892 billion yuan,跻身 the top 5.
On the news front, on January 15th, global foundry leader TSMC released its Q4 2025 results, which far exceeded expectations, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. The company also significantly raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, nearly 40% higher than previous expectations, further validating the longevity and sustainability of strong demand in the AI industry chain. Previously, on January 14th local time, the US White House announced a 25% tariff increase on specific semiconductors. Nvidia's H200 chips and AMD's MI325X AI accelerator chips were included in this tariff hike. This policy might create a stronger window for "accelerated substitution" of domestic equipment, against the backdrop of the memory cycle and the accelerating trend of自主可控, by exacerbating supply chain uncertainties. Looking ahead to 2026, CITIC Securities noted that the industry trend of自主可控 resonating with AI is expected to be further strengthened. "Domestic control and AI computing power" are likely to become powerful贯穿全年的主线 for the electronics industry. Domestic control focuses on the accelerated scaling of domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment, while the AI computing power direction highlights the high确定性景气 of PCBs and memory. Additionally, consumer electronics, as a支线, might face significant turning point opportunities, with a potential景气 reversal expected in Q2 2026.* For investment tools, the Electronic ETF (515260) and its联接基金 (Class A: 012550 / Class C: 012551) passively track the SSE Electronic 50 Index, heavily weighting semiconductors and consumer electronics, and gathering热门 industries like AI chips, automotive electronics, 5G, and PCBs. Its top holdings include Luxshare Precision, Cambricon,工业富联, SMIC, etc.同时, this ETF is eligible for margin trading and Stock Connect, making it an efficient tool for a one-stop allocation to core electronics assets.
Second, the "Physical AI元年" has arrived! Hua Hong Semiconductor surged 7%, and the first ETF focusing on the "Hong Kong chip" industry chain, the Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131), closed higher against the trend.
On January 16th, as the broader market continued to pull back, Hong Kong chip stocks rose against the trend. The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131), the first in the entire market focusing on the "Hong Kong chip" industry chain, opened higher but weakened震荡 throughout the morning session, yet still managed to close up 0.31%, holding firmly above all its moving averages. Its daily turnover reached 73.82 million yuan.
Among its constituents, Tianyue Advanced led with a gain of over 13%, followed by Frequencies rising over 8%, Hua Hong Semiconductor gaining over 7%, Lens Technology up over 4%, and SMIC, Ubtech, and ASMPT all increasing over 2%.
A Huatai Securities research report dated January 15th, titled "Impressions from CES 2026: Three Investment主lines in the 'Year of Physical AI'", pointed out that over the past two years, the AI data center industry chain, represented by GPU optical modules, has been the primary investment主线 in the global tech sector. In 2026, the super cycle driven by AI data center construction—encompassing computing chips, memory, networking equipment, and power—remains the most significant investment主线 in tech. The importance of memory within the AI computing power chain is expected to rise significantly. AI system development is increasingly focusing on reducing the cost of Token production through system co-design, creating opportunities for value appreciation in server assembly/cooling, optical interconnects, substrates/PCBs, etc. How to position for the "Year of Physical AI"? From a valuation perspective, "Hong Kong chip" stocks offer relatively prominent investment value. As of now, the标的指数 of the Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) has a latest P/E ratio of 35.87x, sitting at the 42.31% percentile over the past three years. It still has over 55% upside potential compared to its peak in February this year, and its valuation attractiveness significantly outperforms major tech indices like the ChiNext Index (P/E 43.05x, 3-year percentile 96.73%) and the Nasdaq 100 (P/E 36.23x, 3-year percentile 73.72%).
Aiming directly at the Hong Kong chip super cycle! The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131), the first in the entire market focusing on the "Hong Kong chip" industry chain, has a标的指数 composed of "70% hardware + 30% software". It is heavily weighted in Hong Kong's "semiconductors + electronics + computer software", covering 42 Hong Kong-listed hard tech companies. Among these, SMIC has a weight of 15.29%, Xiaomi Corporation-W has a weight of 12.62%, and Hua Hong Semiconductor has a weight of 7.26%. It excludes large-cap internet companies like Alibaba,腾讯, and Meituan, resulting in higher锐度 and making it easier to capture the Hong Kong AI hard tech行情. (Data as of January 15, 2026)
Third, Testing the five-day moving average with accelerated net inflows! The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) attracted nearly 1.7 billion yuan this week! What is the logic behind the buying?
The ChiNext AI index fell 2%, testing its five-day moving average, while funds poured in substantially! AI application概念股 retreated across the board, with Hand Information, BlueFocus, Kunlun万维, and others falling over 10%. However, computing power segments like optical modules remained active, with联特科技, Tai辰光, Zhishang Technology, and others rising over 5%, while Changxin博创, Tianfu Communication,光库科技, Ruijie Networks, and others gained over 1%.
Among popular ETFs, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363), which has a dual布局 on "computing power + AI applications", fell 1.81% on-market, testing its five-day moving average, with a turnover exceeding 1.2 billion yuan. Funds accelerated their inflow, with a net subscription of 436 million units for the day (estimated amount approximately 478 million yuan based on the day's average price). Combined with the 1.2 billion yuan increase over the previous four days, the cumulative weekly inflow reached about 1.678 billion yuan!
A comprehensive analysis suggests three potential reasons behind the nearly 1.7 billion yuan choosing 159363 to invest in ChiNext AI: 1. ChiNext AI continues to lead! A weekly review shows that driven by an AI application爆发 in the first half of the week, followed by the market rotating back to computing power directions like optical modules, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) charted a strong eight-week winning streak. Its标的指数 gained 34.66% over eight weeks, significantly outperforming同类 AI-themed indices like STAR AI and CS Artificial Intelligence, verifying the突出弹性 advantage of the ChiNext AI sector.
Note: The ChiNext AI ETF Huabao passively tracks the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index. The base date for this index is December 28, 2018, and its release date is July 11, 2024. The annual performance of the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index from 2021 to 2025 was: +17.57%, -34.52%, +47.83%, +38.44%, +106.35%, respectively. Index constituent composition is adjusted according to the index compilation rules; its backtested historical performance does not indicate future index performance. 2. Trading the expectation of the computing power earnings主线! Focusing on computing power opportunities, optical module CPO has been活跃 repeatedly, with earnings expectations being a key catalyst. Cao Xuchen, Fund Manager of the ChiNext AI ETF Huabao (159363), stated that short-term pullbacks do not alter the expectation of strong performance in the A-share market for the first half of this year. During pullback periods, earnings stocks like optical modules are expected to become a preferred destination for阶段性 market concentration, suggesting attention to sector allocation opportunities. Guosheng Securities believes the optical module industry is in a high景气 cycle, with爆发 AI computing power demand driving rapid growth in high-end optical module demand, making supply the core矛盾. Against the backdrop of the high景气 cycle in the computing power industry chain, leading optical module manufacturers are accelerating capacity expansion in mainland China and Thailand. The industry is expected to see concentrated capacity release in Q1 2026, driving earnings into a new climbing period.* 3. Product strength is significantly better than同类标的! As of January 15th, the规模 of the ChiNext AI ETF Huabao (159363) reached a record high of 5.527 billion yuan. Its average daily turnover over the past six months was nearly 800 million yuan. Its规模 and turnover rank first among the 8 ETFs tracking the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index! Additionally, HKEx显示 that 159363 was officially included in the Stock Connect program, effective January 19th, making it a preferred choice for northbound capital allocation and potentially further enhancing its on-market trading activity.
Looking ahead, as AI development currently shifts from computing power construction to application落地, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) and its场外联接 funds (Class A: 023407, Class C: 023408), which offer a one-stop布局 in "computing power + AI applications", stand to benefit more directly from the growth红利 of AI technology commercialization爆发. In terms of sector allocation, ChiNext AI allocates approximately 60% to computing power (primarily optical modules) and about 40% to AI applications, making it not only a core "computing power" play but also a true representative of "AI applications". Source: SSE, SZSE, etc., data as of January 16, 2026. Reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant; short-term gains/losses do not预示 future performance. Investors must invest rationally based on their own capital situation and risk tolerance, paying high attention to position and risk management. Note 1: Fund fee rates are detailed in each fund's legal documents. Note 2: "First in the entire market" refers to the first ETF tracking the SSE HK Connect Information Technology Composite Index and the first ETF tracking the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index, respectively. * Institutional views referenced from: ① Xiangcai Securities Strategy Commentary, January 15, 2026, "Central Bank to Promote Eight Policy Measures, Stabilizing Market Expectations"; ② China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC) Research Report, January 15, 2026, "资金护航，景气为纲——2026年A股资金面展望（下）"; ③ CITIC Securities Electronics Team Report, January 15, 2026, "CITIC Securities Electronics 2026 Investment Strategy: 'Domestic Control, AI' as the贯穿全年主线 'Consumer Electronics' as the支线, Watch for Major Turning Point Opportunities"; ④ Guosheng Securities Report, "Optics – The Eve of a New Round of Capacity Release".
Risk提示: The ChiNext AI ETF Huabao passively tracks the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index (Base Date: 2018.12.28, Published: 2024.7.11). The Electronic ETF and its联接基金 passively track the SSE Electronic 50 Index (Base Date: 2008.12.31, Published: 2009.7.22). The Intelligent Manufacturing ETF passively tracks the CSI Intelligent Manufacturing Theme Index (Base Date: 2012.6.29, Published: 2016.7.2). The New Materials ETF passively tracks the CSI New Materials Theme Index (Base Date: 2008.12.31, Published: 2015.2.13). The Intelligent Electric Vehicle ETF passively tracks the CSI Smart Electric Vehicle Index (Base Date: 2014.12.31, Published: 2021.6.4). The Healthcare ETF and its联接基金 passively track the CSI Healthcare Index (Base Date: 2004.12.31, Published: 2014.10.31). The HK Connect Information Technology ETF passively tracks the CSI HK Connect Information Technology Composite Index (Base Date: 2014.11.14, Published: 2017.6.23). Index constituent composition is adjusted according to the index compilation rules; its backtested historical performance does not indicate future performance. Stocks mentioned are for objective illustration as index constituents only, not as individual stock recommendations, and do not represent the investment direction of the fund manager or the fund. Any information appearing herein is for reference only. Investors are responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Investors should carefully read the "Fund Contract," "Prospectus," "Fund Product Summary," and other fund legal documents to understand the fund's risk-return characteristics and choose products suitable for their own risk tolerance. Past fund performance does not predict future results. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Based on the fund manager's assessment, the Electronic ETF, Intelligent Manufacturing ETF, New Materials ETF, Intelligent Electric Vehicle ETF, and Healthcare ETF have a risk rating of R3-Medium Risk, suitable for Balanced (C3) and above investors. The ChiNext AI ETF Huabao, Healthcare ETF联接基金, and HK Information Technology ETF have a risk rating of R4-Medium-High Risk, suitable for Aggressive (C4) and above investors. Suitability matching opinions are subject to the selling institutions. Selling institutions assess the risk of the above funds according to relevant laws and regulations. Investors should promptly pay attention to the suitability opinions issued by the fund manager. Suitability opinions from different selling institutions may not be consistent, and the risk assessment results of fund products issued by fund selling institutions shall not be lower than the risk rating results made by the fund manager. The description of fund risk-return characteristics in the fund contract may differ from the fund risk level due to different consideration factors. Investors should understand the fund's risk-return situation, combine it with their own investment objectives, horizon, experience, and risk tolerance, carefully select fund products, and bear the risks themselves. CSRC registration of the above funds does not indicate a substantive judgment or guarantee of their investment value, market prospects, or returns. Fund investment involves risks.
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