Abstract
PG&E Corp will report fourth-quarter results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles market forecasts, last quarter’s performance, segment dynamics, and the prevailing institutional view to frame the near-term setup and valuation context.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, the market anticipates PG&E Corp’s revenue of $7.05 billion with year-over-year growth of 6.30%, EBIT estimate of $1.52 billion with year-over-year growth of 0.78%, and adjusted EPS estimate of $0.37 with year-over-year growth of 17.78%. Consensus implies modest expansion in gross profit margin and net profit margin versus last year, with stable operating leverage aiding adjusted EPS; specific gross margin and net margin forecasts are not uniformly disclosed. The company’s core electricity and natural gas operations remain steady, with electricity expected to contribute a larger share of revenue and the regulated rate base growth underpinning medium-term visibility. The most promising driver is electricity delivery, projected to anchor roughly three-quarters of total revenue at $5.36 billion and benefit from incremental rate relief and wildfire hardening investment, implying low-to-mid single-digit growth year over year.
Last Quarter Review
In the last reported quarter, PG&E Corp delivered revenue of $6.25 billion, a gross profit margin of 39.41%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $0.82 billion, a net profit margin of 13.17%, and adjusted EPS of $0.50, with year-over-year growth of 35.14%. A notable highlight was the sequential improvement in profitability, with quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 57.97% supported by operating efficiency and regulatory cost recovery. Main business performance showed electricity revenue of $4.76 billion and natural gas revenue of $1.50 billion, with electricity comprising 76.08% of the mix; year-over-year growth rates by segment were not disclosed in the filing.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Electricity Operations
The electricity delivery business is the earnings anchor this quarter, given its approximate three-quarters contribution to group revenue and its direct linkage to the regulated rate base. The near-term earnings profile is influenced by rate adjustments and decoupled volumetric risk, which collectively stabilize revenue despite seasonal demand variability. Management’s investments in system hardening and vegetation management are expected to continue to translate into allowed returns, thereby supporting EBIT consistency and mitigating cost volatility. While consumption growth may be muted, the regulatory formula should enable recovery of prudent costs, sustaining margin levels near prior-quarter averages.
Natural Gas Operations
The natural gas segment, roughly one-quarter of total revenue, is positioned to deliver steady but slower growth. Winter heating demand supports throughput, but the regulated framework, including tracked costs of purchased gas, limits upside operating leverage. The key to margin stability lies in balancing infrastructure integrity programs with cost trackers to avoid margin compression. Any outperformance will likely come from favorable weather relative to normal and timely cost recovery in rates; otherwise, the segment should contribute predictable EBITDA with minimal surprise risk.
Wildfire Hardening and Safety Investments
Wildfire mitigation remains a central financial driver this quarter because capital deployment into grid hardening expands the rate base and future earnings power. Continued execution on undergrounding, sectionalizing, and enhanced inspection programs supports authorized returns, with lag effects showing through in revenue and EBIT. Investors will watch the cadence of spending versus authorized recovery, as delays in regulatory approval or cost overruns could pressure near-term free cash flow even if long-term returns remain intact. Efficient capital allocation and timely filings are the most important variables for EPS delivery within the quarter’s guidance range.
Key Stock Price Sensitivities
The stock this quarter will be most sensitive to updates on regulatory outcomes, wildfire liability developments, and cost recovery timing. A clear path on rate cases and deferral mechanisms can lift sentiment and compress perceived equity risk premia, translating into a higher earnings multiple even if headline revenue growth holds near mid-single digits. Conversely, any indication of elevated non-recoverable costs, new wildfire incidents, or delayed regulatory timelines could outweigh an in-line EPS print and pressure the shares. Guidance color on 2026 capital expenditure and its recovery cadence will likely shape forward EPS expectations more than short-term volume changes.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent previews, the majority stance is cautiously bullish, with more positive than negative takes focused on rate base growth, improving safety metrics, and visibility on cost recovery. Several well-followed institutions emphasize that adjusted EPS trajectory appears intact into this quarter, citing regulated returns and capital plan execution as support for a mid-teens percentage year-over-year increase. Bullish arguments highlight that the company’s investment cycle and regulatory frameworks should sustain EBIT around $1.52 billion and EPS near $0.37 despite seasonal demand fluctuations. The consensus positive view centers on stability rather than acceleration, with upside skewed to constructive regulatory commentary and any incremental confirmation of wildfire risk mitigation effectiveness.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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