On May 8, the cryptocurrency market continued its upward trend, with the price of Bitcoin rising to around $81,600 per coin. Statements from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio alleviated concerns about further military escalation, putting downward pressure on both the US dollar and oil prices, thereby creating new room for risk asset valuations to rise. The NCE platform indicated that BTC has climbed from approximately $63,000 to above $80,000 over the past three months, driven by sustained institutional fund inflows and reasonable leverage levels, which continue to support the bullish structure. The institution's analysis suggests that key signals monitored by professional investors consistently point to the next target level near $85,000 per coin.
From a market structure perspective, BTC is trading above a key cost benchmark, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned from negative to neutral, indicating a clear release of previous short-selling pressure. NCE believes that market makers hold short gamma exposure around $82,000 per coin, meaning price increases could trigger hedging-related buying, providing further upward momentum. The institution judges that while Bitcoin futures open interest is approaching the historical high of 800,000 coins, the perpetual funding rate remains in a slightly positive range, signaling that the market has not yet shown signs of overheating or excessive crowding, and the capital structure remains healthy.
On the macroeconomic front, a marginal easing of geopolitical tensions and the pullback in oil prices have collectively improved market concerns about the inflation trajectory. A marginal decline in US Treasury yields has reduced the downward pressure on valuation anchors for risk assets. Institutions have observed that long-term Bitcoin holders' positions are relatively stable, selling pressure from miners is moderate, and the market structure shows no significant deterioration. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual contract funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings are also important indicators for gauging institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market, and should be analyzed comprehensively alongside multidimensional data.
The NCE platform anticipates that Bitcoin may continue to rise in the short term, testing the $85,000 per coin target. The direction is more likely to be driven by macroeconomic data and institutional capital behavior. The institution emphasizes that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets require investors to prioritize risk budgeting and position control. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy path, the direction of Treasury yields, regulatory developments, and flows into spot ETFs to avoid excessive trading driven by one-sided sentiment and to adapt to market turning points with a rational approach.
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