Goldman Sachs has indicated that the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles, following supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to a reduction in global oil demand of up to 320,000 barrels per day by the end of 2027.
In a report, the bank noted that the global sales penetration rate for electric vehicles increased by 3.4 percentage points last month, reaching 26.1%, marking the second-highest level on record.
Goldman Sachs projects that, under its "temporary acceleration" scenario, global oil demand could decrease by approximately 130,000 barrels per day by December 2027. This scenario assumes that electric vehicle penetration rates across regions will remain fixed at the levels observed in May 2026.
Under a "sustained acceleration" scenario, which assumes a linear growth trend in regional EV penetration rates from February to May 2026, the potential demand loss for the same period could reach about 320,000 barrels per day.
The report highlighted a significant observation: "Particularly noteworthy is that in Asian countries such as India and Vietnam, two- and three-wheeled electric vehicles constitute a major portion of total EV sales. Their fuel displacement potential can reach one-third to one-half of the amount displaced by passenger electric vehicles."
The bank also stated that penetration rates are showing an upward trend in 12 out of the world's 15 largest electric vehicle markets.
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