Following the U.S. declaration of war against Iran, investors in American equities have endured repeated bouts of volatility. Scott Rubner of Castle Securities stated that his fundamental analysis indicates it is now time to turn bullish on stocks.
Rubner, who studies market positioning and capital flows, suggested that extremely pessimistic market sentiment, favorable seasonal patterns, and still-resilient retail investor inflows lay the groundwork for a rebound after several weeks of turbulence.
This latest outlook represents a complete reversal for Rubner, who accurately predicted that February would be a weak month for equities. The shift comes as global markets grapple with surging energy prices and the potential for a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
In a Wednesday note to clients, Rubner, the head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Castle Securities, wrote: "We are removing our tactical bearish view and see room for a rebound around mid-month, with volatility normalization acting as a catalyst."
The change in stance followed feedback from his discussions with clients worldwide, as well as growing evidence that market sentiment has deteriorated significantly.
"Being bearish has become too popular," Rubner noted, adding that current positioning leaves room for market gains.
The S&P 500 rose during Wednesday's morning session, after experiencing sharp declines in the early trading hours of the previous two sessions, though it largely recovered those losses by the close each day. The index has declined less than 1% so far this week, despite a noticeable increase in actual volatility.
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