UBS has released a research report significantly raising the target price for China Life Insurance Company Limited (02628) from HK$29 to HK$42, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. This upward revision is primarily based on three key reasons: an improved outlook for new business value growth, favorable macro conditions leading to an upward revision in the embedded value forecast (raising the price-to-embedded-value multiple for its life insurance business from 0.45x to 0.6x), and an update of the valuation benchmark to 2026. The bank noted that China Life's current valuation, equivalent to a forward price-to-embedded-value ratio of 0.5x and a price-to-book ratio of 1.22x, is attractive, and it reiterated that the company is a primary beneficiary of the mainland's deposit migration trend and rising stock market. Analysis from the bank indicates that China Life's new business value is projected to grow by 35% in 2025; however, compared to the 42% growth rate in the first nine months, the growth momentum weakened in the fourth quarter of last year. This was mainly due to some demand being released in advance before the pricing interest rate cut at the end of August, coupled with some provincial branches, having achieved their full-year targets, prioritizing preparations for the 2026 start-of-year sales campaign. UBS believes that these preparatory efforts will drive the company to achieve robust new business growth in January, with performance in the bancassurance channel being particularly noteworthy.
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