Central Banks' Gold Sales Draw Attention: What Lies Ahead for Holdings' Value?

Deep News04-08

Recent gold sales by the central banks of Turkey and Russia have attracted market attention. Data released by the Turkish central bank on April 2 showed that, in response to energy shortages and pressure on its currency caused by Middle East conflicts, the country's gold reserves decreased significantly by nearly 120 tonnes in the two weeks ending March 28.

Earlier, in early March, the Polish central bank announced a plan to sell part of its approximately 550 tonnes of gold reserves to raise up to 480 billion zloty (approximately $130 billion) for supporting defense construction. Additionally, according to World Gold Council statistics, the Russian central bank sold a cumulative 15 tonnes of gold in the first two months of 2026. It sold 9 tonnes in January, making it the largest net seller for that month, and continued with a net sale of 6 tonnes in February.

An industry expert commented that the gold sales by some central banks are temporary operations and do not represent a fundamental reversal of the global trend of central bank gold purchases. Each country has its own specific needs for selling: Turkey is exchanging gold for foreign currency to address liquidity pressures and currency depreciation, while Poland and Russia are doing so to cover fiscal expenditures or deficits. From a broader perspective, global central banks continue to maintain a net purchasing trend, and gold's long-term position as a core strategic asset remains unchanged.

Another precious metals analyst pointed out that the gold sales by some central banks are not profit-driven commercial actions but choices made to maintain domestic financial stability under the influence of Middle East events, with the degree of impact varying by country. A securities firm analysis suggests that the sales by a few "non-core" central banks like Turkey and Russia are "tactical" reductions based on "following the trend" and "temporarily alleviating fiscal crises."

In fact, global central banks have been keen on increasing their gold holdings in recent years. World Gold Council data indicates that from 2022 to 2024, global central banks purchased over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for three consecutive years, roughly double the average annual purchases of the previous decade. Although purchases fell to 863 tonnes in 2025, they remain at historically high levels.

Notably, data released by China's central bank on April 7 showed that China's gold reserves stood at 74.38 million ounces at the end of March, an increase of 160,000 ounces from 74.22 million ounces at the end of February, marking the 17th consecutive month of increases.

A chief macro analyst believes that the double-digit decline in international gold prices in March, driven by rising international oil prices due to Middle East tensions and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, may be a direct reason for some central banks to accelerate their gold purchases. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also a significant contributing factor.

Experts generally agree that the long-term upward trend for gold has not changed, and it still holds considerable investment value. The securities firm analysis maintains that the primary trend of "long-term gold appreciation" remains intact. This is because global central banks were still net buyers of gold in March, and sales by individual banks do not alter the main theme of central bank purchasing. Following the outbreak of US-Iran-Israel conflicts, global central banks purchased 14.7 tonnes of gold in March 2026, with the Eurozone becoming the main buyer for the month, purchasing 43.1 tonnes. The scale of gold purchases by other central banks was also far greater than the sales by Turkey and Russia. Furthermore, against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar credit, although gold sales by some central banks from February to March 2026 caused short-term price fluctuations, the upward trend for gold may not yet have reversed.

The industry expert added that geopolitical risks and asset allocation needs have not fundamentally changed, and gold still holds allocation value in the long term. In the short term, gold prices may experience volatility and bottom-building, with increased fluctuation rates. Based on this, the expert suggests that investors focus on long-term allocation opportunities while managing risks effectively. Strategies such as phased fixed-amount investments, profit-taking, and stop-loss orders can be adopted. Investors might also consider tactical allocation opportunities in related assets like gold mining companies and silver.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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