The supply-demand dynamics of the memory chip market are increasingly tilting in favor of leading manufacturers, and the pricing upcycle may last longer than the market expects.
Goldman Sachs hosted a TrendForce memory industry expert network seminar on October 27. TrendForce experts stated at the meeting that DRAM supply will remain tight throughout 2027, and the price increase cycle is expected to extend into the first half of 2028; HBM blended average prices are projected to surge 122% year-over-year in 2027 to $3.7 per Gb, driving HBM industry revenue growth of over 230% to exceed $200 billion.
Capacity expansion faces structural constraints including insufficient cleanroom space and long equipment lead times. TrendForce judges that effective supply increments will be difficult to achieve before 2028, and this bottleneck provides sustained support for upward pricing. At the same time, Chinese HBM suppliers pose limited competitive threat in the short term, with their combined market share expected to be less than 2% in 2027.
DRAM price increase cycle may extend into the first half of 2028
TrendForce expects that sustained strong server demand and limited supply increments will continue to drive DRAM average prices higher over the coming quarters, although weaker consumer demand poses some drag.
Long-term agreement (LTA) coverage reaching 60% to 70% may moderate price increases in 2027. However, TrendForce notes that incremental demand beyond locked-in volumes can still be negotiated at higher prices, and the overall pricing center of gravity remains tilted upward. Taking all factors into account, TrendForce currently expects DRAM prices to continue rising into the first half of 2028.
TrendForce forecasts that HBM blended average prices will rise 122% year-over-year in 2027 to $3.7 per GB, driving HBM industry revenue to grow more than 230% year-over-year to exceed $200 billion.
Price divergence will be notable. TrendForce states that HBM4 high-end pricing could exceed $5 per GB, while the low end approaches $3 per GB, with significant variation in negotiation outcomes between suppliers and customers. Due to higher per-unit base die costs, 8-layer HBM4 is expected to carry a 5% to 10% premium per bit over 12-layer products; HBM4E pricing could be substantially higher than HBM4.
Goldman Sachs said in its report that these judgments are broadly consistent with its own forecasts — the bank currently estimates that major suppliers' HBM average prices will rise 100% to 160% year-over-year next year.
Capacity expansion constrained by equipment and fab space, supply bottleneck difficult to resolve in the short term
Despite aggressive capital expenditure plans by leading manufacturers, TrendForce still believes that effective DRAM capacity increments will be difficult to achieve before 2028, with the main bottlenecks being insufficient cleanroom space and excessively long semiconductor equipment lead times.
TrendForce estimates that each Korean manufacturer can add 80,000 to 100,000 wafers per month (WPM) of capacity in 2027. However, Samsung Electronics' new capacity is expected to be mostly allocated to HBM, with traditional DRAM bit growth mainly driven by process migration. Equipment supply conditions are expected to gradually improve starting in the second half of 2027, and the substantive contribution of new fabs to supply is expected to materialize only in 2028. TrendForce also notes that suppliers may proactively adjust the pace of capacity expansion based on demand prospects.
TrendForce states that Google is becoming an important driver of HBM demand growth. As the proportion of TPUs deployed in Google data centers continues to rise, HBM3E bit demand is expected to receive support next year, meaning HBM demand will be distributed across generations rather than concentrated in HBM4 and HBM4E.
Meanwhile, given the significant pricing premium of HBM4, TrendForce expects HBM4 to account for nearly 60% of HBM industry revenue in 2027.
TrendForce believes that although Chinese memory manufacturers continue to increase capacity and technology investment, there remains a considerable gap in technical capability and yield compared to leading suppliers, and the competitive risk they pose to the global HBM market in the short term is limited.
Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating on Samsung Electronics' common and preferred shares, with 12-month target prices of 500,000 won and 380,000 won respectively, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology using 2026-2027 estimated EV/EBITDA.
SK Hynix has a target price of 3.5 million won, based on the 2026-2027 average estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, corresponding to a 9.0x target valuation multiple, also maintaining a Buy rating.
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