UBS has issued a research report stating that CHOW TAI FOOK's (01929) sales performance for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, covering the three months ended March, was broadly in line with the market's downwardly revised expectations. This was attributed to pressured demand in Mainland China, which was offset by stronger-than-expected demand in other markets. During the period, the group's overall sales declined by 1.5% year-on-year. Sales in the Mainland China market decreased by 8.2%, while sales in markets outside Mainland China grew by 58.5%. Regarding same-store sales growth, Mainland China self-operated retail stores recorded a positive 0.2% growth, Mainland China franchise stores recorded a negative 5.8% growth, and other markets achieved a positive 40.1% growth. Sales through the Hainan duty-free channel increased by 141% year-on-year, while international market sales grew by 20%. UBS has assigned the group a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$18.5. Management has maintained its guidance for the 2026 fiscal year, expecting revenue to achieve low to mid-single-digit growth and same-store sales growth to reach mid to high-single digits. The gross profit margin is forecasted to be between 31.5% and 32.5%, with hedging losses expected to be similar to the HK$6.2 billion recorded in the 2025 fiscal year. Guidance for the 2027 fiscal year will be provided upon the announcement of the full-year results in June.
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