Abstract
Costco will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 24, 2026 Post-Mkt, with investors focused on whether double-digit year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings per share can be sustained amid steady traffic, resilient membership economics, and recent expansions in delivery and digital channels.Market Forecast
Consensus for the current fiscal quarter points to revenue of 94.81 billion US dollars, up 10.17% year over year, adjusted EPS of 6.54, up 12.73% year over year, and EBIT of 3.76 billion US dollars, up 11.07% year over year; margin forecasts were not formally provided. The main business is expected to benefit from continued traffic and ticket stability, with recent monthly updates indicating solid single- to low double-digit sales growth and hints of disinflation in several food categories that could help unit volumes. Within segments, merchandise net sales — 69.15 billion US dollars last quarter — are projected to grow by roughly 10.17% year over year this quarter in line with total sales, supported by underlying traffic gains and broader fulfillment options.Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Costco delivered revenue of 70.53 billion US dollars (up 11.59% year over year), a gross profit margin of 12.77%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.19 billion US dollars with a net margin of 3.11%, and adjusted EPS of 4.93 (up 15.19% year over year). A key highlight was a modest top-line beat versus consensus alongside double-digit year-over-year EBIT growth, demonstrating operating leverage despite a cautious consumer backdrop. Main business highlights: merchandise net sales were 69.15 billion US dollars and membership fees were 1.37 billion US dollars, while total revenue advanced 11.59% year over year, underscoring the importance of recurring membership income to overall earnings resilience.Current Quarter Outlook
Merchandise Net Sales
Merchandise remains the engine of quarterly performance, and the estimates imply a continuation of low double-digit year-over-year growth in the fiscal fourth quarter. Company net sales updates have been consistent with that trajectory: for example, in July 2026, net sales increased 10.70% year over year, indicating a healthy baseline into the quarter’s close. June 2026 comparable sales growth of 8.80% suggested some deceleration from the prior month amid rising fuel prices and post-tax-refund normalization, yet the broader quarterly run-rate still aligns with solid consumer throughput across core categories. Disinflationary trends in select food items have shown up in commentary around pricing, which can pressure ticket but often drives unit volume, and the mix impact has historically been manageable when offset by steady traffic and basket optimization. Seasonal categories and discretionary items should remain sensitive to price elasticity, but the breadth of private-label offerings and curated SKU discipline continue to support compelling value per visit.Membership Fees and Ancillary Income
Membership fees, at 1.37 billion US dollars last quarter, are the most visible recurring revenue pillar and have outsized influence on profit consistency relative to their share of total sales. While the company did not publish a separate membership-fee forecast for the current quarter, consensus modeling of double-digit revenue and EPS growth implies that membership income should remain supportive, powered by continued member additions and retention. The expanding ecosystem of fulfillment options is likely to enhance the perceived value of membership, benefiting renewal rates and ancillary penetration. In the current quarter, contributions from membership fees are expected to align with the company’s overall growth cadence, with upside asymmetry if higher-tier membership mix or value-added services utilization improves. The revenue quality from fees typically supports margin steadiness in periods where merchandise mix or pricing dynamics introduce volatility, making this stream a key buffer to quarterly earnings variability.Key Stock-Price Drivers This Quarter
The first swing factor is the pace of same-store sales and monthly net sales momentum through quarter-end, especially as energy prices and mix shifts can drive modest volatility in headline comps. Recent disclosures cited higher gasoline prices as a headwind to certain comp metrics and evidence of food disinflation; investors will parse whether lower food inflation can bolster unit volume sufficiently to offset ticket pressure and sustain the estimated 10.17% top-line growth. The second swing factor is the scaling of last-mile and digital channels: the partnership expansion announced on September 16, 2026 with Uber to reach 47 states and nearly 600 locations should lift convenience, basket frequency, and dry-grocery and household penetration, which may incrementally support fourth-quarter net sales and traffic. The third factor is international and online reach, where the July–September push to broaden e-commerce access — including the online collaboration in China — potentially extends the addressable customer base beyond traditional store radii and opens a pathway to higher attachment to private label across regions. A final monitoring point is operating expense discipline and shrink management; even small deviations in wage and logistics costs can influence the quarter’s EBIT relative to the 3.76 billion US dollars estimate, and successful containment would help translate sales into profits consistent with an 11.07% year-over-year EBIT gain.Analyst Opinions
The balance of recent institutional commentary skews bullish, with a roughly 5-to-4 ratio of bullish to bearish/neutral stances over the January 01, 2026 to September 17, 2026 window; we present the majority view. Multiple well-followed firms reiterated positive ratings and kept or raised price targets while highlighting resilient store traffic, robust membership economics, and expanded omni-fulfillment as supports for sustained double-digit growth in revenue and EPS. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a Buy view, emphasizing the durability of core performance and steady shopper throughput as the foundation for the current-quarter setup and beyond, alongside a price target framing that reflects confidence in continued execution. J.P. Morgan likewise maintained a Buy with a 1,100 US dollars target, arguing that the traffic backdrop and consistency of value delivery support above-peer visibility into earnings trajectory. Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy and lifted its price target to 1,120 US dollars, noting that the cadence of monthly sales points and operating discipline support double-digit EPS expansion even as mix and pricing normalize. Gordon Haskett remained constructive with a 1,100 US dollars target, underscoring the importance of recurring membership income, continued private-label momentum, and curated merchandising in driving stable growth.Across the bullish camp, the core thesis centers on three pillars. First, revenue growth visibility: the 94.81 billion US dollars estimate and 10.17% year-over-year growth rate for the current quarter align with monthly sales trends and a favorable base for unit volumes as food disinflation nudges basket mix without disrupting trips. Second, earnings quality: the 6.54 adjusted EPS estimate, up 12.73% year over year, and 3.76 billion US dollars in EBIT, up 11.07% year over year, are viewed as achievable if operating expenses remain disciplined and shrink is contained; contributions from membership fees provide a stabilizing cushion. Third, channel expansion: the national-scale delivery expansion with Uber and online initiatives in international markets extend reach and convenience, reinforcing traffic and supporting higher lifetime value per member. On balance, the bullish view expects Costco to meet or modestly exceed the quarter’s top- and bottom-line estimates, with omni and membership leverage offsetting mix-related fluctuations and fuel-price noise, and with sufficient operating discipline to protect margins within historical variability.
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