This is an article written by Dan Bin, founder of Oriental Harbor, for the new book "The Start of the 15th Five-Year Plan," published by CITIC Publishing Group in March of this year. The article compiles some of his remarks from the past year, along with new expressions, offering a complete view of how a veteran value investor with over 30 years of experience iterates his understanding, navigates cycles, and advances vigorously in the AI era. In the current context, this article holds particular practical significance. Market opinions on artificial intelligence remain highly divided, yet Dan Bin maintains his consistently clear stance: if we extend the timeline, AI is not merely a typical thematic investment but is likely one of the most critical industrial variables over the next decade. In recent years, Dan Bin has indeed expressed his stance through his holdings. According to the latest disclosed 13F filing, as of the end of last year, Oriental Harbor's U.S. stock holdings had a total market value of approximately $1.316 billion, with the number of holdings reduced to 10, indicating further portfolio concentration. Alphabet replaced NVIDIA as the largest holding, with NVIDIA ranking second. Meanwhile, U.S. tech giants such as Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon also form core allocations. With permission from the publisher, we are sharing this article.
Current market debates about artificial intelligence continue. A common view is that AI requires massive investment with slow returns, even suggesting a bubble exists. I hold a different opinion. If we extend our perspective, we find that AI's current position far exceeds the ordinary scope of a "technology hotspot" and is becoming a core variable in global economic and national strategic competition. The characteristics of AI at this stage—high investment and slow returns—are not anomalies but inevitable phases of a technological revolution. Any major technological advancement inevitably requires substantial resource investment in its early stages. Currently, major U.S. tech companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in AI, with companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon continuously expanding their related investments. The reason is that AI has become a "competition that cannot be lost." In this process, the eventual winners are highly likely to capture the vast majority of industry profits, forming a highly concentrated收益格局. In fact, this closely resembles the industrial evolution path observed during the internet era.
We need to assess AI's development prospects from the perspective of its potential contributions. Just as the internet, in its early stages, relied on large-scale investments to nurture globally influential large enterprises and ultimately created profits far exceeding initial costs, I believe the current investments in AI are far outweighed by the value it can bring to human society in the future. If AI achieves breakthroughs in fields like healthcare, even contributing to conquering diseases such as cancer and significantly extending human life expectancy; if AI brings disruptive changes to critical systems like military, energy, and transportation; then the resulting social and economic value would be immeasurable. It can be said that the competition in AI has risen to the strategic height of "AI sovereignty." Any nation with technological and capital capabilities will inevitably invest fully in this long-term game. From an investment perspective, the risk of missing out on era-defining opportunities often far outweighs the so-called "bubble risk." Over the past few decades, we have experienced multiple technological cycles like electronic hardware, the internet, and mobile internet, but very few investors have managed to穿越多个时代 and continuously分享 long-term growth红利. If one chooses to观望 or exit due to short-term fluctuations, they risk missing out on significant opportunities once again in this profound AI technological transformation.
During previous technological waves, I was able to detect the investment opportunities embedded in era changes relatively early but did not always go all-in; while I achieved some returns, from a longer-term perspective, I still fell short of fully embracing this great era. This is perhaps one of the biggest regrets of my investment career. It is precisely because of this regret that when ChatGPT emerged at the end of 2022, my team and I unanimously judged that an era potentially more transformative than the internet had officially begun. In this wave, we are unwilling to repeat past mistakes.
Why do the vast majority of people repeatedly miss era-defining opportunities? The answer may lie in the evolution of technological cycles. The internet era began roughly in the 1990s and has lasted over 30 years; mobile internet development has been ongoing for nearly 20 years; while AI is still in a relatively early stage. Current economic growth characteristics differ from the past "decade-long cycle" model, instead exhibiting叠加式增长特征: the internet era hasn't ended, mobile internet has superimposed upon it; mobile internet continues to evolve, and AI is further integrating; in the future, before AI matures, new technologies like quantum computing may superimpose again. This叠加式技术进步 constitutes a new economic growth model and explains why some companies' stock prices can rise continuously for a decade or longer—they consistently occupy受益 positions within multiple superimposed technological cycles.
Investors who successfully seized opportunities during the internet era are often able to grasp new opportunities in the AI era as well. Those who kept pace in the previous era remain at the forefront in this one. Conversely, investors who missed opportunities in the last era are likely to miss out again in the AI era. Visionary investors maintain sharp awareness across eras. For our generation of Chinese investors who have experienced reform and opening-up and the growth of capital markets, AI is likely the last great technological revolution in our lifetimes that we should not and cannot miss. We理应 embrace this profound ongoing transformation with a longer-term perspective and a broader mindset. Furthermore, the tech giants behind this round of AI investment boast robust financial conditions, with ample cash flow sufficient to support continuous investments over a 5 to 10-year horizon or longer. Therefore, rather than repeatedly纠结于 "bubble risk," it is better to participate based on rational selection, seeking high-quality enterprises that truly represent the direction of the era.
I entered the securities industry in 1992 and subsequently worked at Guotai Junan Research Institute. Being able to grow within this institution, renowned as the "Whampoa Military Academy" of Chinese investment research, was my fortune. Even more难得, I encountered leaders like Teacher Li Xunlei. At that time, he served as Deputy Director of the institute, overseeing macro and market research, while I was primarily responsible for market research. The institute released a "Financial News Express" every morning, which I often authored. Having been in the industry for over 30 years, I have almost completely witnessed the entire process of China's capital markets maturing from a rudimentary stage. This process accompanied profound changes in system construction,观念变革, and participant structure. The scenarios depicted in the TV drama "Blossoms" reflect a corner of the market ecology at that time to some extent. In the early stages of my career, market manipulation ("坐庄") and various irrational operations were prevalent, with endless rumors circulating. I witnessed the rise and fall of the "Delong System," and saw investment magnates who once controlled billions of yuan and were at the peak of their influence vanish from the market within a year. Similar stories were commonplace over the past 30 years. These experiences gradually solidified my firm conviction: profits obtained through improper means ultimately face market repercussions; only合规经营 and adhering to value investment principles can ensure long-term competitiveness. Looking at old friends who remain active in the market with good career and life states, most belong to the group that长期实践 value investment.
In truth, the investment journey is a continuous process of observation, thinking, and iteration. I initially engaged in technical analysis at Guotai Junan Research Institute, later gradually shifting to fundamental research and value investment. This transformation stemmed from持续观察 and深入思考 of era changes and business model evolution. I started paying attention to "world-changing" companies very early. During the internet bubble burst in 2000, while working at Dapeng Securities, I advised a friend to invest $1 million to buy Sohu, Sina, and网易, whose stock prices had fallen below $1. My judgment then was that even if only one of these three companies survived, the investment would yield substantial returns and potentially welcome a whole new era. Regrettably, he ultimately followed the advice of another institutional account manager and chose different investment targets. Later facts proved that网易's stock price increased over a hundredfold. This experience left an extremely deep impression on me—seeing the era does not equate to truly participating in it.
Another key observation came from family life. Around 2006, shortly after Oriental Harbor was established, I noticed my eldest daughter and her classmates extensively using QQ groups for communication. This phenomenon震撼 me greatly. In our generation, after graduation, people often lost contact, whereas QQ groups established long-term, stable, strong connections for a群体. If this method of connection could持续扩展, the platform value behind it would be immeasurable. Based on this judgment, we started buying Tencent shares in April 2006. The aforementioned friend also bought and held long-term based on my suggestion. In a sense, Oriental Harbor has been "walking on two legs" since its inception: on one hand, seeking business models like leading baijiu companies that are "not changed by the world"; on the other hand, actively embracing "world-changing" business models represented by Tencent. We pay attention to both models.
This shift towards AI is not a spur-of-the-moment decision. In fact, as early as 2016, our investment portfolio already held about 3% in NVIDIA stock; and when we first invested in U.S. stocks in 2011, our purchase was Tesla. We have consistently maintained research and tracking on "world-changing" companies. But this time, our resolve is stronger. The reason is we increasingly clearly recognize that the true force driving social wealth growth comes from technological progress, not macro policy adjustments like interest rate hikes or cuts. This judgment was further reinforced, especially after systematically studying the U.S. capital market. Since AI has become the most important direction of technological progress currently, we理应 participate fully with a firmer attitude.
Of course, this process hasn't been smooth sailing. In March 2025, facing the Trump administration's tariff threats, we一度担心 about triggering systemic risks in global markets and thus conducted significant减仓. But shortly after selling, we realized this judgment was偏差. Even with geopolitical disturbances, these factors remain "secondary factors"; what truly determines the long-term trend is the continuous breakthrough of AI technology. This recalls the experience of the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis—the crisis itself was just a "secondary factor," while the rise of the internet was the decisive "primary factor." Investment must抓住 the "primary factor." Based on this reflection, we quickly repurchased.
Investment is always challenging. We endured the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2012 baijiu industry crisis through sheer perseverance, which significantly impacted Oriental Harbor. Subsequently, we gradually strengthened our risk control system, especially for systemic risks. For instance, before the major market fluctuation in 2015, we基本清仓 except for baijiu and leading insurance stocks; later, we gradually reduced insurance assets. In 2018, when market concerns about the prospects of the private economy intensified, we adopted defensive strategies, and after senior leadership clarified policy directions, we重新加仓 to a higher proportion. These experiences helped us develop a more mature risk response mechanism and learn to distinguish between short-term noise and long-term主旋律 in complex environments. At the current stage, we believe AI is the主旋律 of this era's transformation.
Looking ahead, especially to 2026, we remain optimistic. The AI era is likely a long cycle lasting over a decade, and now might just be the starting point. It is foreseeable that 2026 could be a crucial year for the massive explosion of AI applications. Even if market adjustments occur midway, I tend to view them as phased consolidations, opportunities to refuel, or even increase allocations. Similar situations occurred around 2003-2004. Currently, the application prospects of AI are just beginning to emerge; the real wave is transmitting from the technological foundation to the application layer. The core动力 behind this process lies in the intense competition among global top tech companies. For example, the interplay and iteration between OpenAI and Alphabet are continuously pushing technological boundaries rapidly—OpenAI's rise prompted Alphabet's founders to return to the "frontline," and after Alphabet launched Gemini, it quickly引起了 OpenAI's high alert and rapid response. This全力以赴 "arms race" among top competitors acts as a catalyst for technology's astonishing pace of evolution. It is foreseeable that large model iterations will accelerate, and fierce competition will ultimately translate into universal福祉. In 2026, we are likely to witness a series of highly influential AI applications accelerating their落地, potentially profoundly changing various industries and benefiting billions of ordinary people. This is not just technological progress but the beginning of a great era tangibly entering our lives.
From a macro perspective, in recent years, some industries like real estate and traditional industrial enterprises have faced significant pressure. To achieve positive economic growth,增量部分 must offset存量下滑, implying that betting on incremental industries in investments offers higher probability of success. I believe that among all incremental fields, AI and its related industry chain hold the greatest upward potential, likely entering a bull market lasting over 10 years. The next decade will大概率 be dominated by structural opportunities. Recently,交流 with some investors revealed that even if 2025 was a slow bull market, over 90% of people did not make money. The reason is that in a structural market, if investors cannot adjust promptly according to changes in economic运行 direction, they feel very被动. I judge that the next 10 years will很难再现普涨普跌 patterns; instead, greater emphasis must be placed on structural opportunities.
As a "veteran" with over 30 years of market experience, I wish to share a few simple insights with investors, especially retail investors. First, discern the trend and grasp the consensus. As Teacher Li Xunlei said, "Change is also a form of value investment." Each era has its main theme. In the past real estate upcycle, consumption upgrade was the主线; today, technological progress is the主线. We must recognize changes in trends and adjust accordingly. For most people, investing can be quite simple. If看好 the AI era, choose the most core, representative companies of this era, such as recognized leaders like NVIDIA, Alphabet, etc., or participate through related ETFs. Don't overcomplicate things—truly excellent companies, like jewels on a crown, often have high recognizability. Second, avoid chasing rallies and selling dips, and frequent trading. Why didn't many investors make money in 2025? A significant reason is constantly消耗 themselves through frequent buying and selling. Finally, investment is a long-distance run, a journey同行 with the era. I feel庆幸 that over 30 years later, I still maintain passion for the market and new technological waves. Past successes and regrets have ultimately沉淀 into today's cognition. The era creates heroes, but heroes must also live up to the era. We happen to be at the intersection of China's rise and the科技革命, which is both a challenge and an opportunity. Doing things the right way and persisting day after day can enable ordinary people to achieve extraordinary accomplishments. I hope we can共同实践 the spirit of value investment and live up to this great era.
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