Guotai Haitong Securities has released a research report stating that the Double 11 shopping festival is about to begin, and attention should be paid to the promotional event as a catalyst for the sector. In the long term, the beauty care sector still shows clear growth attributes due to frequent product innovations and high organizational efficiency of domestic brands. Currently, both sector valuation and holdings are at low levels, and it is recommended to select stocks from the bottom up that demonstrate high-speed growth driven by strong product and brand momentum, as well as those with recovery elasticity. The main views of Guotai Haitong Securities are as follows:
Platforms: Shorter cycles, simplified rules. In terms of activity cycles, the key dates for Double 11 in 2026 have been pushed back compared to 2025 across multiple platforms: JD.com will start selling all categories in stock on October 12 (compared to October 9 in 2025), Douyin will launch on October 15 (compared to October 9 in 2025), and Tmall will open presales on October 15, with the full cycle running from October 15 to November 13, about 30 days (compared to October 14 to November 14 in 2025, a total of 32 days). Tmall will also merge the two waves of in-stock sales into a single wave, starting in-stock sales at 8 PM on the 20th. In terms of activity rules, platforms continue the direct discount strategy: Taobao and Tmall maintain official direct discounts, Xiaohongshu has canceled the spend-and-save model and switched to storewide direct discounts starting at 15% off, and JD.com focuses on official direct price reductions while retaining cross-store spend-and-save offers (30 off every 200 spent, compared to 50 off every 300 in 2025).
Regarding top livestreamer partnerships, the number of top brands appearing on livestreams has generally increased, with many new domestic products being promoted. As of the October 9 preview, the top three brands L'Oreal, Proya, and Lancome will appear in 22, 17, and 14 livestreams respectively, changes of -1, +1, and +2 compared to last year. Among high-end foreign brands, Lancome, Helena Rubinstein, and La Mer each added 2 slots, while Shiseido added 1. Among domestic brands, Kefumei and Mao Geping each increased their livestream appearances by 3 and 2 respectively, while Proya, Winona, and Marubi each added 1. Forest Cabin will feature its hero product, Camellia Essential Oil. Chando and KANS each reduced their appearances by 2. In terms of newly added livestream products, most are new releases from the year, showing two main directions: iterative upgrades of hero products (Kefumei collagen stick series extended to masks, Proya Yuanli series multi-use balm) and expansion into new lines (Mao Geping Jinyao skin mask, flower collaboration).
On pricing mechanisms, core products maintain prices, while gift simplification and specification upgrades proceed in parallel, and industry price competition pressure remains. From the livestream product mechanisms of top livestreamers, the listed prices of leading domestic hero products in 2026 are generally stable. For example, Proya Ruby Serum and Early C Late A Set, Mao Geping Caviar Mask, Kefumei Collagen Patch, and Collagen Stick have the same prices and gifts as last year. Some products have seen slight price reductions (such as Proya Double Anti Mask dropping from 369 yuan to 349 yuan), with adjustments mainly focused on gift structure. On the gift side, there is a trend of "simplification plus specification upgrades": in terms of variety, gifts are streamlined to the same product; in terms of specifications, small samples are upgraded to medium samples, refills, or even full-size products. For example, L'Oreal Revitalift Eye Cream has changed from a small sample combination to a full-size 30ml same product, and OLAY White Radiance Essence has changed to buy-one-get-one-full-size with a lower final price. The report believes that the perceived value of full-size gifts is significantly higher than small samples, effectively deepening unit discounts, and industry price competition pressure persists. Foreign brands show internal divergence: Shiseido Red Ginseng Water raised its listed price, La Mer Treatment Lotion reduced gifts, Helena Rubinstein Green Bottle Serum dropped from 1,760 yuan to 1,580 yuan, while Lancome Black Bottle Serum, Estee Lauder Pink Water, and HR Black Bandage increased gifts.
Investment recommendations: The Double 11 shopping festival is about to begin, and attention should be paid to the promotional event as a catalyst for the sector. In the long term, the beauty care sector still shows clear growth attributes due to frequent product innovations and high organizational efficiency of domestic brands. Currently, both sector valuation and holdings are at low levels, and it is recommended to select stocks from the bottom up that demonstrate high-speed growth driven by strong product and brand momentum, as well as those with recovery elasticity. Recommended: high-growth stocks with strong fundamentals: Mao Geping (01318), Langzi Co., Ltd. (002612.SZ), Forest Cabin (02657), Deng Kang Oral (001328.SZ), Runben Co., Ltd. (603193.SH); leading stocks with clear improvement expectations: Proya (603605.SH), Giant Biogene, Shanghai Jahwa, Nox Bellcow; stocks with low expectations and potential marginal improvement: Betaini, Sihuan Pharmaceutical, Shangmei Co., Ltd., Freda, Bloomage Biotech, Imeik.
Risk warnings: Continued downturn in industry prosperity; intensified competition on the brand side, with domestic brands squeezed by foreign brands; company new product and new brand incubation results falling short of expectations.
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