Gold Market Trend Analysis: On August 12, the overall price of gold saw a volatile session with a surge and subsequent decline, maintaining a high-level pressure. The early morning session built on the previous night's strong bullish momentum, rapidly pushing from Monday's closing level near 4388 to a short-term high of 4435, where it faced resistance. This triggered a sharp reversal, with the price quickly breaking below the day's initial rally point. After falling below the 4388 threshold, the downward momentum accelerated, eventually finding a bottom near 4356 before stabilizing. The U.S. session saw a narrowing of trading range, with prices consolidating irregularly in a tight band between 4365 and 4400, completing a high-level correction. This morning, gold prices stabilized from a low of 4362 and rebounded strongly, breaking through the 4400 resistance level from last night's U.S. session. Prior to the evening's CPI data release, the market maintains a bullish-leaning, oscillating structure, with short-term bullish momentum dominating the trend. The current support zone for the bull-bear divide is distinctly clear. The 4362-4365 range has been tested multiple times since yesterday, with five or more instances of bottoming and stabilization signals. Combined with the earlier support at 4370, this zone now serves as the critical inflection point for the market's strength. Following the morning rebound from 4362 support, which broke through the 4403 high, the price briefly surged to 4415. By the afternoon, a minor pullback found support again at 4395, indicating strong bullish continuity and sufficient short-term upward momentum. The intraday trading range is well-defined, providing a clear strategy: the core low-level buy zone is pegged at 4375-4380. If the market pulls back to this support area for the first time, entering long positions is appropriate. If the market does not retreat and instead sustains its strong rally, breaking the 4415 short-term resistance, a light short position can be considered upon the first touch of the 4430-4435 resistance zone before the U.S. session. A decisive hold above 4415 would further strengthen the bullish structure, shifting the support for long positions up to the 4395-4403 range. The market is currently at a pivotal juncture, with expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve balanced at 50-50. Last week's weak non-farm payroll data fueled a strong rally in gold prices, and tonight's CPI inflation data will be the key driver of the immediate trend. The data outcome will directly define the short-term price rhythm. The previous CPI annual rate was 3.5%, with a market expectation of 3.4%. A lower-than-expected figure would signal continued cooling inflation, further easing pressure on the Fed to raise rates. This could propel gold prices above the 4435 resistance, extending the bullish trend towards the 4480-4500 high range. Conversely, a higher-than-expected CPI reading would indicate persistent inflation, potentially marking the end of the current short-term rally and triggering a deep correction. The initial downside target would be the 4320-4300 range, with further downside space to be adjusted based on the data's deviation size. This statement is a republication from a cooperative media platform. The information is provided for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors assume all risks from their own trading decisions.
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