Federal Reserve Governor Steven Milan stated that the energy shock triggered by the Iran war has not yet impacted long-term inflation expectations, and he anticipates price pressures will return to the central bank's target within a year. Speaking at an event in Washington on Tuesday, Milan said, "So far, there is no evidence that inflation expectations are rising." He added, "Given the labor market is on a gradual cooling track that has lasted about three years, it is highly unlikely we will fall into some kind of wage-price spiral. Therefore, the conventional wisdom that the central bank should not react to such model shocks seems reasonable to me so far." Milan pointed out that evidence suggests prices tend to fluctuate rapidly during energy shocks but then stop, thereby limiting the inflationary impact. "Looking one year ahead, I foresee the inflation rate being very close to our target," he added. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 17-18 showed a growing number of Fed officials are concerned that the Iran war could further push up inflation and wanted to clearly signal after the meeting that the central bank might need to consider raising interest rates. That meeting maintained the Fed's benchmark policy rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Milan dissented, favoring a 25 basis point rate cut. Since his appointment as a Fed Governor by President Trump last September, he has consistently urged policymakers to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. Additionally, Milan was asked about a proposal to allow issuers of stablecoins—a type of digital asset pegged to the U.S. dollar—to pay interest to holders. The idea has garnered some support within the Trump administration but faces strong opposition from some banking groups, who worry it could attract deposits away from banks. "Honestly, I don't think it's a big deal," Milan said. "Paying interest might reallocate some deposits from banks to stablecoins, but I don't believe the scale would be economically significant."
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