Recent times have witnessed profound and intense upheavals in the international landscape. The escalation of conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, an event that has rippled across the global economy with wide-ranging and multi-layered effects. As a critical chokepoint for global energy transportation, the Strait of Hormuz facilitates approximately one-quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizer shipments. The obstruction of this passage has triggered a sharp single-day surge in international oil prices and significant volatility in energy markets. This turbulence has subsequently spread to the commodities sector, causing correlated price movements in aluminum, chemical raw materials, and other goods, while shipping costs have soared and supply chain disruptions continue to intensify. From heightened volatility in energy markets to broad fluctuations in commodities, and from rising global trade costs to the spread of risk in financial markets, uncertainty has become a defining feature of the current global economy.
However, there is a broad consensus within the industry that, in the face of such external shocks, China possesses ample policy reserves, a solid economic foundation, and mature experience in response, giving it sufficient confidence and capability to withstand the impact, stabilize the overall situation, and maintain a steady trajectory of economic development amidst the turmoil. A well-stocked and effectively managed macroeconomic policy toolkit is the core source of China's confidence in countering external shocks. Macroeconomic policy is a crucial guarantee for maintaining stable economic operation and advancing high-quality development in China. Confronted with international uncertainty and volatility in global financial markets, China has already accumulated relevant experience. In 2025, despite multiple challenges including rapid changes in the international trade environment, escalating unilateralism and protectionism, and frequent disturbances to market expectations, China adhered to the principle of balancing development and security. It deployed a combination of macroeconomic policies, strengthened counter-cyclical adjustment, effectively mitigated various risks and challenges, achieved stable economic performance, and successfully concluded the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The 2026 Government Work Report emphasized the need to leverage the integrated effects of existing and new policies, intensify both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and substantially enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance. This indicates that macroeconomic policies will continue to be implemented effectively, and coupled with the cumulative effects of previous policies, will persistently consolidate the trend of economic recovery and improvement, building a solid barrier for high-quality development.
The profound depth and unique advantages of China's macroeconomy provide a sturdy foundation for resisting external shocks. After years of development, China's economic aggregate has risen to become the second largest in the world. In 2025, its GDP exceeded 140 trillion yuan, with per capita GDP steadily increasing and the advantages of its super-large market becoming increasingly prominent. This massive economic scale implies greater resilience against risks. China's manufacturing value-added has remained the world's largest for 16 consecutive years, grain output has stabilized above the 1.4 trillion jin mark for many years, and the transition towards cleaner, low-carbon energy supply is accelerating. These factors provide a solid material base for coping with external fluctuations. Simultaneously, China's economic structure continues to optimize, with significant achievements in high-quality development. In 2025, value-added in high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.4%, the share of core digital economy industries in GDP rose to over 10.5%, new quality productive forces are being cultivated at a faster pace, and breakthroughs are continuously made in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology. The momentum for industrial upgrading continues to strengthen, effectively hedging against the impact of energy volatility on traditional industries.
Equally critical is China's possession of an independent and comprehensive industrial system and a highly resilient supply chain, which enables it to effectively mitigate risks from external supply disruptions. Taking the energy sector as an example, in response to fluctuations in energy imports caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, China has established a diversified energy import structure. Beyond the Middle East, it has continuously expanded import channels from Asia, the Americas, and other regions. Domestically, natural gas production has achieved annual increases of tens of billions of cubic meters for nine consecutive years. The number of entities importing LNG has doubled since 2017, and new models such as online trading of feed gas and annual contract transfers are being actively explored, further enhancing price discovery and resource allocation capabilities. These measures help reduce dependence on any single shipping route.
In the context of global economic integration, no country can remain entirely insulated. The volatility triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade once again highlights the fragility and uncertainty of the global economy. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that China, with its ample policy tools, solid economic foundation, and mature supply chain system, will effectively withstand external shocks and maintain stable and healthy economic development. Concurrently, China will continue to uphold multilateralism, actively promote global energy cooperation and supply chain coordination, work with other nations to address risks and challenges, and foster a stable recovery of the global economy. China's own stable development will also inject more certainty and positive energy into the world economy.
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