European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen has indicated that the scale of the inflationary shock stemming from the conflict in Iran remains uncertain, and policymakers will act in response to subsequent data developments.
In an interview conducted in Sintra, Portugal, where the ECB is holding its annual forum, the Dutch official noted that while energy costs have receded, uncertainty persists.
"From an inflation perspective, the drop in oil prices is certainly good news," he stated on Tuesday. "But what will happen next remains to be seen."
Policymakers are examining how U.S.-Iran peace talks and the decline in energy prices are affecting eurozone inflation. The ECB raised interest rates this month for the first time since 2023, and markets anticipate a further 25-basis-point hike by year's end.
Officials have hinted at the possibility of additional monetary policy tightening. Data released Wednesday showed eurozone inflation fell to 3% in June, still significantly above the ECB's 2% target. Concurrently, the eurozone economy is striving to avoid slipping into a recession.
Sleijpen mentioned that he and his colleagues have "not yet truly seen" the impact of second-round inflation effects but are closely monitoring developments in worker compensation.
"We know wage growth lags, so we will first observe when the first trade unions will present their demands," he said. "This is certainly another aspect I, personally, will be focusing on closely."
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