On April 2, commodity markets exhibited significant divergence. After several days of sustained gains, the precious metals sector abruptly reversed course, with gold and silver experiencing sharp declines. In stark contrast, international crude oil markets saw another explosive surge, with highly volatile price movements.
In the spot market, as of the latest update, spot gold in London fell sharply by 2.97% to $4,616.809 per ounce. During the session, it reached a high of $4,800.46 per ounce before falling below the $4,600 mark to a low of $4,553.158 per ounce. Spot silver in London declined even more sharply, dropping 5.80% to $70.683 per ounce, briefly falling below the $70 per ounce threshold during trading.
Futures markets followed the downward trend. As of the latest update, COMEX gold futures fell sharply by 3.54% to $4,642.9 per ounce, after hitting a session high of $4,825.9 per ounce and a low of $4,580.4 per ounce. COMEX silver futures saw an expanded loss of 6.62% to $71.045 per ounce, with a session low of $69.66 per ounce.
In contrast, international crude oil futures markets experienced a sharp upward surge. As of the latest update, WTI crude oil rose significantly by 7.54% to $107.67 per barrel, reaching a session high of $108.03 per barrel. Brent crude futures also surged by 7.29% to $108.53 per barrel, hitting a high of $109.18 per barrel during the session.
Geopolitical tensions served as the primary catalyst for the substantial volatility in commodity markets. On April 1, the U.S. President delivered a speech in Washington, announcing a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in the conflict with Iran. He stated that core strategic objectives in the conflict were "nearing completion" and expressed confidence that all military goals would be achieved "very shortly." He added that intensified strikes would occur over the next two to three weeks, while negotiations continued simultaneously.
Following these remarks, market concerns over an escalation in the Iran conflict resurfaced, triggering significant price swings in commodities. According to an analyst from Zhongtian Futures' investment advisory department, recent crude oil price movements have constrained the upward momentum of precious metals, with the two exhibiting an inverse relationship. During periods of geopolitical tension, crude oil and the U.S. dollar tend to rise while gold declines. Conversely, when tensions ease, crude oil and the dollar retreat, and gold rebounds. The underlying logic stems from capital's concerns about future global inflation expectations.
The analyst suggested that crude oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile in the near term. Historical patterns indicate that geopolitical events typically exert short-term influence on oil prices, but attention should also be paid to potential further damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East. If the situation deteriorates, further increases in crude oil prices cannot be ruled out, which would continue to weigh on the overall trend of precious metals.
Regarding the gold market, the head of Nanhua Futures' precious metals and new energy research team noted that for the second quarter, the interplay of three key variables—the evolution of the Middle East situation, Federal Reserve policy, and supply-demand fundamentals—will collectively dictate the pace of the precious metals market. However, the impact of geopolitical events is expected to gradually diminish at the margin, with prices likely returning to being driven by monetary policy adjustments and fundamental factors.
From a supply-demand perspective, the analyst further explained that while the long-term trend of central bank gold purchases remains intact, providing solid underlying support, short-term outflows from investment demand are creating temporary pressure. Future attention should be paid to whether the pace of central bank buying accelerates. Silver's high volatility is constrained by both traditional industrial demand and inventory adjustments. Additional factors to monitor include new industrial demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI computing, as well as position rollovers ahead of delivery months, delivery inventories, and potential squeeze pressures.
The analyst emphasized that rational investing is not merely a slogan but a survival rule in the investment world. Currently, both crude oil and gold are trading at relatively high levels with significant volatility, which undoubtedly increases investment complexity. Unilateral trading strategies are challenging and require stricter capital management. Given current market conditions, investors are advised to consider volatility-based strategies, maintain objectivity and clarity, strictly control positions, approach trading from an investment perspective, avoid short-term speculation, and prepare contingency plans for risks.
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