Metax Faces 6.8B Yuan Share Unlock Next Week; Can It Avoid Moore Threads' Post-Debut Slide?

Deep News09-13

Metax Integrated Circuits (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (688802.SH) shares closed at 489 yuan on September 11, still showing a roughly 3.67-fold paper gain over its 104.66 yuan IPO price, signaling notable profit-taking pressure from institutional holders.

The domestic GPU maker is about to see its first significant lock-up expiry since listing. The company announced on September 9 that 13.966 million shares from its initial public offering, allocated to institutional investors, will become tradable on September 17. At Friday's closing price of 489 yuan, the unlock is valued at approximately 6.83 billion yuan.

This comes days after Moore Threads Technology Co., Ltd. (688795.SH), also dubbed one of the "Four Little Dragons of Domestic GPUs," hit the 20% down limit on its first trading day after its unlock on September 7, and has since fallen more than 30% cumulatively. That precedent has heightened market attention on Metax's upcoming unlock.

With a 367% paper gain, the 13.966 million shares set free on September 17 are held by public funds, social security funds, pension plans, annuity funds, bank wealth management products, insurance funds, insurance asset management products, and qualified foreign institutional investors. Once released, Metax's float will expand from 18.5286 million to 32.4946 million shares, a roughly 75.38% increase in circulating supply.

At the 489 yuan reference price, these institutions hold an average paper profit of about 384.34 yuan per share, representing a gain of roughly 367%. The shareholding structure is relatively dispersed, with each allocator holding a modest position. Public funds such as Baoying Fund, Bodao Fund, Bosera Fund, Caitong Fund, Dacheng Fund, Dongfang Alfa Fund, Founder Fubon Fund, and Fuanda Fund, alongside corporate and occupational pension plans, are among the holders. The China Construction Bank Corporate Annuity Plan will unlock 43,300 shares worth about 21.19 million yuan, ranking first among holders by dollar amount.

Metax's share price initially climbed after its December 17, 2025 debut on the STAR Market, reaching an all-time high of 1,033 yuan on July 13. Since then, it has pulled back steadily, with losses accelerating in September amid pre-unlock jitters and a GPU sector downturn. In the week from September 7 to 11, the stock dropped from 635 yuan to 489 yuan, a weekly decline of about 22.5%, and now sits roughly 46.2% below its peak.

Even after that correction, the gap between the IPO price and the current market price leaves these placement recipients sitting on substantial gains, making post-unlock selling pressure a real concern for the market.

The fear largely stems from Moore Threads' experience. On September 7, 25.7745 million shares unlocked there, and the stock hit the 20% down limit at 415.49 yuan that day. It has weakened further since, shedding 31.1% in a single week.

Both companies occupy the same domestic GPU arena, are grouped under the "Four Little Dragons" label, focus on AI compute chips, and remain in early commercialization stages. That similarity makes investors particularly sensitive to unlock events. That said, Metax and Moore Threads differ in product portfolios, customer bases, and earnings trajectories.

Metax is a leading domestic general-purpose GPU vendor with a full-stack product lineup and single-card performance in the domestic first tier. Its offerings span AI computing, general-purpose computing including scientific simulation, and graphics rendering, covering the Xiyun C-series for training and inference, the Xisi N-series for inference, the Xicai G-series for rendering, and the Xisuo X-series for scientific computing, all highly compatible with the mainstream CUDA ecosystem.

Fundamentally, Metax reported a "revenue growth with profit turnaround" in its interim 2026 results. First-half revenue reached 1.324 billion yuan, up 44.67% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 612 million yuan, reversing a loss of 186 million yuan in the prior-year period, a 429.46% improvement. However, non-GAAP net profit excluding non-recurring items remained negative at 48.8595 million yuan, though that is a 75.83% narrowing from a 202 million yuan loss a year earlier.

The quality of that headline profit deserves scrutiny. Non-recurring items contributed 661 million yuan to the interim net profit, a gain the company itself flagged as "not sustainable." Stripping that out, the core GPU business is still loss-making. Heavy R&D spending is a primary driver of the operating loss. R&D expenses reached 525 million yuan in the first half, up 15.28% year-on-year and equal to 39.65% of revenue, a ratio above that of mature chipmakers. Selling expenses grew 73.23% year-on-year, earmarked for market expansion and ecosystem building.

Operating cash flow was negative at 1.297 billion yuan in the first half, due to revenue failing to cover costs, delayed customer collections, and inventory buildup from strategic stockpiling. As of June 30, accounts receivable stood at 969 million yuan, equivalent to 73.23% of half-year revenue, while prepayments reached 2.196 billion yuan, reflecting high advance payments to secure supply chain stability.

The domestic GPU sector is entering a critical phase of commercial monetization, with competition intensifying. Multiple domestic players are pushing product deployment and customer acquisition simultaneously. While internet cloud providers and telecom operators offer tangible demand, customers demand high performance, ecosystem compatibility, and stability, and validation cycles are lengthy. Metax itself cautioned in its interim report that entering key industry accounts requires rigorous technical validation and ecosystem adaptation, that sales are still ramping, and that revenue growth could fall short of expectations, with continued losses possible.

Another constraint comes from the supply chain and technology route. Due to overseas policy restrictions, Metax faces limitations on advanced-process wafer foundry and raw material procurement. Some suppliers' products or services are scarce or exclusive, and equivalent domestic alternatives are hard to source in the near term. While the company has been building a domestic supply chain, key links still need time to mature, meaning product iteration speed and production costs will remain subject to external conditions.

Going forward, whether Metax can sustain its turnaround hinges on the ramp-up of next-generation products. The interim report notes that the Xiyun C600 training-inference GPU entered mass production in May 2026, making it the company's latest flagship; a next-generation chip targeting generative AI inference is under development, expected to reach intended usable status by the end of 2028. The company is transitioning from a "training-centric" to a "training plus inference" dual-engine model, but moving new products from mass production to large-scale customer adoption and then to steady revenue contribution typically requires a 1-2 year ramp-up period.

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