Good morning, the crude oil market has received bearish news, while gold prices have hit another record high! On the evening of the 22nd, US Energy Secretary Wright, speaking at the World Economic Forum, called for a more than doubling of global oil production to meet rising demand and prevent energy poverty. He highlighted the significant challenges facing global energy supply and access. As a result, international oil prices declined.
At the close of trading this morning, the main WTI crude oil futures contract fell by 1.57%, while the main Brent crude oil futures contract dropped by 1.23%. In the precious metals sector, the spot price of London gold rose by 3.31%, closing at $4,935.75 per ounce; the spot price of London silver surged by nearly 6%. The main Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver futures contracts also experienced substantial gains.
Domestically, chemical commodity prices rose collectively during the night session. As of the close at 23:00 on the 22nd, synthetic rubber futures hit the daily limit-up, gaining 6.99%; prices for 20号胶 (TSR 20), styrene, PTA, and rubber futures rose by close to 3%; prices for bottle chips, pure benzene, short fiber, and ethylene glycol futures increased by over 2%. On the news front, on the 22nd local time, US President Trump stated that Europe would face large-scale retaliation if it sold off assets like US Treasury bonds. Trump also mentioned that the ongoing Greenland agreement would grant the US "all the military access it wants." Trump claimed the US would achieve "full access" to Greenland, and once the agreement is finalized, it would allow the US to deploy components of its "Iron Dome" missile defense system there. Discussing US-Iran relations, Trump stated that Iran is willing to engage with the United States and hinted at a potential resumption of diplomatic communication. While attending an event related to the so-called "Peace Committee," Trump said, "Iran does want to talk, and we will talk." However, he did not provide further details regarding the format, timing, or specific topics for the dialogue. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia are scheduled for the 23rd in the UAE, describing them as technical-level discussions. It is reported that these trilateral talks will last for two days. Furthermore, a meeting between US Presidential Envoy Witkov and Trump's son-in-law Kushner with Russian President Putin is set to take place on the 23rd. Additionally, Witkov indicated that the Russia-Ukraine peace process has made significant progress and is now in its final stages, expressing his optimism. Following his visit to Russia, he will travel to the UAE to participate in the US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral working group meeting.
The Central Bank of Turkey announced an interest rate cut of 100 basis points. On January 22, the Central Bank of Turkey announced a reduction in the policy rate (one-week repo rate) from 38% to 37%, a cut of 100 basis points; the overnight lending rate and overnight borrowing rate were adjusted downwards accordingly. In its press release, the Turkish central bank mentioned that the underlying trend of inflation for December 2025 has declined. The Monetary Policy Committee stated it would maintain a tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved, aiming to strengthen the disinflation process through demand, exchange rate, and expectations channels. Turkish President Erdoğan stated that they are waging a protracted war against inflation using a variety of complementary tools and hope to achieve better results in the fight against inflation in 2026. Following the announcement of the Turkish central bank's policy decision, Turkey's main banking index fell by over 2%. It is noted that in July 2025, the Turkish central bank resumed interest rate cuts, lowering the policy rate by 300 basis points to 43%; in September, it cut rates by a larger-than-expected 250 basis points, adjusting the policy rate to 40.5%; in October, Turkey cut rates again by 100 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 39.5%; in December, Turkey cut rates by a larger-than-expected 150 basis points, reducing the policy rate to 38%.
The IEA issued a warning about an oil supply surplus. The latest data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the 22nd showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels last week, following an increase of 5.278 million barrels the previous week. Furthermore, in its monthly report released in January 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that unless significant supply disruptions occur, the global crude oil market will face a significant supply surplus in the first quarter of 2026. "International oil prices are currently influenced by many factors, and the supply surplus has become a known factor. Against the backdrop of strong market consensus, factors beyond supply and demand are more likely to cause price fluctuations," said Fu Xinwei, a crude oil analyst at Zhengxin Futures. She added that the price increase at the beginning of the year was a corrective rally driven by cold weather boosting demand and rising geopolitical risks, but the sustainability of the gains is limited, and resistance levels are hard to break, reflecting market concerns about the oil supply surplus. After the European cold spell ends, the crude oil market will return to trading based on fundamentals. Ling Chuanhui, an energy and chemical analyst at Nanhua Futures, believes that the current contradictions in the crude oil market are more concentrated at the regional supply and demand level. Specifically, recent low crude oil imports in Europe and high refinery operating rates have led to continued drawdowns in European crude oil inventories. Simultaneously, production halts at oil fields in Kazakhstan have exacerbated tightness in local crude oil supply. "Since the start of 2026, geopolitical situations have been the core factor driving crude oil prices," said He Haoyun, a senior researcher at CITIC Futures Research Institute. Although Trump chose not to launch a military strike against Iran on January 15th, as US military forces are deployed in the Middle East, the situation there could still change later. Additionally, in the past two weeks, oil exports from both Libya and Kazakhstan have declined due to incidents, and Russia's oil exports in January have decreased by nearly 1 million barrels per day compared to December last year. Looking ahead, He Haoyun stated that the crude oil market currently faces a mix of bullish and bearish factors. In the short term, the US and Israel may put pressure on Iran again, potentially causing geopolitical risk premiums to rebound. However, the probability of a full-scale ground war launched by the US and Israel against Iran leading to damage to energy infrastructure is low. Against the backdrop of a relatively certain supply surplus and sluggish demand growth, the most critical variable for the crude oil market remains expectations for production cuts. Further declines in oil prices could lead to significant production cuts in US shale oil, potentially causing a noticeable drop in supply and prompting OPEC+ to adjust production quotas. Fu Xinwei believes that an easing of geopolitical tensions could drive oil prices to cyclical lows. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-Iran situation have not only restricted oil production in Russia and Iran but also limited their oil exports. Once geopolitical tensions ease, increased production from Russia and Iran, along with the release of oil from floating storage, could impact the crude oil market. Furthermore, traders should continuously monitor OPEC+'s production increase policies. OPEC+ currently has limited remaining capacity for further increases; once oil prices fall persistently, the motivation for OPEC+ member countries to increase production further will also weaken. Ling Chuanhui identifies three key variables for the market going forward. The first is OPEC+'s production policy. Currently, OPEC+ is expected to maintain a steady production increase in the first quarter, and its subsequent production policy will remain a core variable affecting oil prices. The second is the geopolitical situation. Geopolitical conflicts have always been the biggest bullish factor for oil prices. Frequent US military threats against Iran have increased price volatility. The third is the Trump administration's frequent use of "tariff weapons," which adversely affects global economic and crude oil demand growth.
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