The momentum of economic recovery showed marginal deceleration in April, highlighting a structural pattern of "strong supply versus weak demand." While growth in the supply side moderated, new growth drivers such as high-tech manufacturing and modern services played a pivotal role. On the demand side, exports exceeded expectations, driven by AI and high-end manufacturing, but domestic demand remained weak with subdued consumption and deep adjustments in real estate and private investment. Prices improved moderately but transmission remained sluggish. The financial environment was accommodative, yet it was accompanied by insufficient credit demand from the real economy. Overall, new growth drivers and resilient external demand provided support, but inadequate domestic demand remains the core constraint, necessitating precise policy interventions. Looking ahead, external demand disturbances and domestic demand pressures in the second quarter may lead to a phased economic bottoming, with GDP growth projected at 4.6%. A moderate recovery trend is expected to resume in the second half of the year.
Both supply and demand indicators weakened, exhibiting a K-shaped divergence between old and new growth drivers. Influenced by the spillover effects of external geopolitical conflicts, increased cost pressures on enterprises, and diminishing marginal effects of policies, major supply and demand indicators for the economy declined in April. However, a divergent characteristic of "external demand stronger than domestic demand, new drivers stronger than old drivers" was evident. On the production side, industrial and services production slowed due to weak domestic demand and high oil price impacts, but production in equipment manufacturing and information services accelerated, showing a clear K-shaped divergence. On the demand side, consumption growth slowed to a low level, mainly affected by the waning effects of trade-in policies and weak consumer capacity and willingness, though an upgrade trend in service consumption was noticeable. Investment growth turned negative, with infrastructure investment falling more than expected, significantly dragged down by local infrastructure projects, while new types of infrastructure provided the main support. Manufacturing investment declined broadly due to external uncertainties and cost pressures, but some high-tech industries maintained strong resilience. The decline in real estate investment widened; while the sales side showed some improvement, the bottoming trend characterized by "high inventory, falling prices, tightening financing, and weak land acquisition" remained unchanged. Exports grew beyond expectations, with AI-related chains and high-end manufacturing as the core drivers. The recovery in external demand, coupled with stockpiling demand amid Middle East geopolitical disturbances, jointly supported exports.
Inflation: PPI rose more than expected, year-on-year growth may continue to increase. The year-on-year increase in CPI widened in April, primarily supported by energy and service prices, but food and core commodity prices were weaker than seasonal trends. The year-on-year increase in PPI accelerated, and the month-on-month increase hit a nearly four-year high. High oil prices were the core driving factor, with domestic anti-involution efforts and AI computing demand providing some endogenous support. However, price transmission from upstream to midstream and downstream sectors remained obstructed. Looking forward, the imported impact of external oil price supply shocks cannot be ignored. CPI and PPI are projected to grow by approximately 1.5% and 4.0% respectively in May, remaining at elevated levels for some time thereafter. Close attention should be paid to changes in the oil price center and its squeeze on the costs and profits of midstream and downstream industries.
Finance: Credit demand from the real economy is weak, fiscal support needs to accelerate. Both new aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) and new loans in April fell short of expectations, with loans turning negative again. Meanwhile, M2 growth rate increased against the trend, and non-bank deposits continued high growth, indicating funds flowed more towards financial markets, while credit expansion in the real economy faced obstacles. Weak real estate consumption, a slow pace of fiscal support, and the impact of external geopolitical disturbances on confidence were the three main drags. Specifically, AFRE increased less than expected year-on-year, mainly due to weak private demand and a slow fiscal pace. Credit turned negative again rarely, reflecting weak financing willingness among both households and enterprises. Household new loans turned negative for the first time this year, and medium- and long-term enterprise loans decreased by 660 billion yuan year-on-year in April. The M2 growth rate increased against the trend, structurally showing a strengthening trend of deposits moving towards capital markets. Looking ahead, AFRE, M1, and M2 growth rates still face downward pressure, necessitating accelerated fiscal and quasi-fiscal support. The timing for interest rate cuts has been pushed back.
New growth drivers and resilient external demand provided support, while domestic demand needs consolidation under the "strong supply, weak demand" structure. Following a strong start in the first quarter, the momentum of economic recovery showed marginal deceleration in April. The overall picture featured "new drivers taking the lead on the production side and external demand resilience exceeding expectations," but also a divergent pattern of "sluggish domestic demand recovery and insufficient real economy credit demand." The structural characteristic of "strong supply versus weak demand" remained pronounced. On the supply side, although growth slowed marginally, the supporting role of new drivers strengthened further. In April, value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.1% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from March. Among these, equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.7% and 12.6% respectively, significantly higher than the overall industrial level, becoming the core support for stabilizing production. The services production index increased by 4.3% year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, but modern service sectors such as information transmission, software and IT services, and leasing and business services showed明显领先的增速, continuing to act as "stabilizers." The PMI production index rose above seasonal trends to 51.4%, also confirming the resilience on the supply side.
On the demand side, the characteristic of external demand being stronger than domestic demand and structural differentiation in investment became more prominent. Exports in April grew by 14.1% year-on-year, far exceeding expectations, with the structure continuously upgrading: integrated circuit export value surged by 100.1%, automatic data processing equipment grew by 47.7%, and automobile exports grew by 44.0%. AI industrial chains and high-end manufacturing were the core driving forces. In contrast, domestic demand recovery was slow and showed a divergent pattern. Consumption increased by only 0.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.48%. Big-ticket consumption like automobiles was a significant drag, but service retail growth was much higher than goods retail. From January to April, fixed-asset investment decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.36% in April. Infrastructure investment grew by 4.3%, and high-tech industry investment maintained relatively fast growth. However, manufacturing investment was weak, real estate development investment underwent deep adjustment, and private investment confidence still needs restoration.
On the price front, price signals improved moderately, but a clear divergence between upstream and downstream was evident. CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year in April, with core CPI stable at a 1.2% increase. Energy and travel services were the main contributors. PPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, mainly driven by rising international commodity prices and improved demand in some domestic industries. The "scissors gap" between PPI and CPI widened. Upstream price recovery is beneficial for corporate profit repair, but downstream consumer goods prices remained weak, and cost transmission to terminal consumption was still not smooth.
The overall financial environment remained accommodative, but real economy financing demand was insufficient. The AFRE stock grew by 7.8% year-on-year at the end of April, and M2 grew by 8.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 4.9% nominal GDP growth in the first quarter, indicating reasonably ample liquidity. Direct financing such as corporate bond and equity financing increased year-on-year, enhancing support for technological innovation and major projects. However, new RMB loans showed a rare slight negative growth, the household sector continued deleveraging, and medium- and long-term enterprise loan demand was weak, reflecting that the vitality and investment willingness of microeconomic entities still require policy support.
Overall, in April, new drivers on the production side, external demand, and price signals all showed improvement. However, structural contradictions such as real estate adjustment, insufficient endogenous consumption momentum, and weak private investment confidence have not fundamentally changed. Addressing the "strong supply, weak demand" pattern requires more precise policies to expand domestic demand, promote the private sector, and stabilize the real estate market.
Looking ahead, economic momentum may face a phased bottoming in the second quarter. As short-term export stimulus factors fade, global trade slows, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on external demand materializes, coupled with consumption facing high base effects from trade-in policies, growth may come under marginal pressure. In the second half of the year, with the expected recovery of endogenous consumption momentum following a "low first, high later" pattern, and as structural support from AI industrial chain capital expenditure and energy transition demand for exports of new quality productive forces and manufacturing investment becomes apparent, the economy is expected to resume a moderate recovery trend. GDP growth in the second quarter is projected to be around 4.6%, with a mild fluctuation pattern of "stability - decline - rise" across quarters. Full-year growth is estimated at about 4.8%. Nominal GDP growth will be significantly higher than real growth.
Economy: Supply and Demand Both Weaken, K-Shaped Divergence Between Old and New Growth Drivers (1) Production: Both Industry and Services Slowed Industrial production slowed marginally, with a significant K-shaped divergence between old and new growth drivers. In April, value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.1% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. Month-on-month growth was 0.05% (only about 1/7 of the same period from 2021-2025), indicating emerging marginal slowdown pressure. Structurally, the K-shaped divergent feature of "strong new drivers, weak old drivers" was evident. On one hand, driven by strong export growth and domestic industrial upgrading demand, value-added of equipment manufacturing grew by 8.3%, with the growth rate even increasing slightly from the previous month, contributing 74.5% to the growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size. On the other hand, affected by weak domestic demand and high oil price impacts, value-added growth in other industrial sectors (excluding equipment manufacturing), which account for over 60% of industrial enterprises above designated size, was likely below 2%, down over 2 percentage points from the first quarter. Looking forward, industrial production will continue to face the dual forces of "strong exports + new drivers" pulling up and "weak domestic demand + high oil prices" pulling down. If industrial growth further falls below 4% in the second quarter, achieving the annual GDP growth target of 4.5-5% will face renewed pressure, potentially forcing additional macro policies around mid-year.
Services production also declined, but information, business services, and finance remained strong supports. In April, the services production index increased by 4.3% year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, falling to the low level of the fourth quarter of last year. By sector, internal differentiation was also significant: Benefiting from AI-related demand, the production indices for information transmission, software and IT services, and leasing and business services from January to April grew by 10.9% and 9.3% respectively, significantly higher than the overall services growth and even increasing slightly from the first quarter. Benefiting from temporarily stabilized interest margins and a hot financial market, the financial sector production index grew by 6.7% year-on-year, remaining high. In contrast, dragged by slow recovery in real estate and consumption, other service production activities were relatively weak. Looking ahead, benefiting from the high prosperity of the digital economy, and with this year's policies focusing on supporting service capacity expansion, quality improvement, and increased "investment in human capital," services production has multiple supports for maintaining stable growth.
(2) Consumption: Slowdown Pressure Intensifies, Recovery Urgently Needs Policy Support From January to April, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.9% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year. However, from a marginal change perspective, growth slowed month by month, with April's year-on-year growth at only 0.2% (2.8% and 1.7% for Jan-Feb and March respectively). While this decline was partly due to a high base in the same period last year, it also reflects that the current momentum for consumption recovery remains weak, urgently needing policy stimulus. Consumption this month showed three main characteristics: First, the six major categories related to trade-in policies were a significant drag, reducing the retail sales growth rate by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among these, retail sales growth for home appliances, furniture, and building decoration materials all turned to double-digit negative growth, mainly related to the high base in the same period last year. Automobile consumption growth was -15.3%, reflecting more cautious behavior by residents towards big-ticket consumption. Second, other basic living and upgrade consumer goods also slowed significantly. The contribution to retail sales growth from other limited-category goods (excluding trade-in related goods) also decreased by about 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Among these, retail sales growth for gold, silver, jewelry, and textiles and clothing turned negative. Growth for basic living goods like food, beverages, and daily necessities all declined from the previous month, reflecting that the recovery momentum of residents' consumption capacity and willingness remains weak. Third, service consumption showed relatively strong resilience. From January to April, service retail sales increased by 5.6% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points faster than the January-March period,明显快于商品零售额增速,体现消费升级趋势的力量。
Looking ahead, as the base effect significantly decreases and policies for stabilizing growth and employment take effect, the phase of greatest pressure on retail sales growth slowdown may be gradually passing. However, pressures on resident employment and income growth remain significant, fundamentally constraining consumption capacity and willingness. Coupled with external imported cost pressures, retail sales growth in the second quarter may continue a weak trend. Currently, unclogging the economic cycle and promoting consumption recovery still rely on strong external policy support to address employment mismatch and income growth challenges under the K-shaped divergence of old and new growth drivers. Spontaneous recovery in household consumption is likely to be very limited.
(3) Investment: Growth Turns Negative, Infrastructure and Private Enterprise Investment Need Boost Investment growth turned negative again, with both infrastructure and private enterprise investment declining. From January to April, fixed-asset investment decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, turning negative again. Among this, private investment decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 3.0 percentage points. The phenomenon of private enterprises "daring not to invest, unwilling to invest" has not eased and still awaits stronger policy support. By structure, growth rates for all three major investment categories declined, with infrastructure support decreasing notably. The cumulative growth rates for manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment from January to April decreased by 2.9, 2.5, and 4.0 percentage points respectively from the January-March period, showing the characteristic of "weakened support from infrastructure and manufacturing, widened decline in real estate investment." Diminishing marginal effects of policies, rising corporate cost pressures, and the pains of transformation between old and new growth drivers constitute the main drags. Looking ahead, driven by the accelerated implementation of mature major projects under the "15th Five-Year Plan," coordinated fiscal and monetary fund efforts, industrial upgrading, and a lower base, investment growth for the year is expected to show a pattern of "low operation in the short term, slow recovery in the second half," with full-year growth estimated around 2-3%. Structurally, infrastructure investment is expected to show moderate recovery supported by accelerated and efficient fiscal spending and the advancement of "six-network" major projects. Although manufacturing investment has industrial upgrading support, it is dragged down by declining external demand and rising costs, and is expected to operate at low levels. Real estate investment is highly likely to maintain its bottoming adjustment.
Manufacturing investment support weakened, with structural optimization coexisting with cost pressures. From January to April, manufacturing investment increased by 1.2% year-on-year, down 2.9 percentage points from January-March, mainly due to increased external demand uncertainty, rising corporate cost pressures, and an unstable foundation for domestic demand recovery. By industry, investment growth in upstream, midstream, and downstream industries generally declined, but industrial upgrading continued to provide relatively strong support for related sectors. Specifically, affected by declining domestic investment demand and rising cost pressures, investment growth in non-ferrous metal rolling, chemical raw materials, and other industries declined significantly. Investment growth in midstream equipment manufacturing showed mixed performance: electrical machinery, computer and communication, and transport equipment等高技术行业投资维持较强韧性, while metal products, automobile manufacturing and other industries declined due to increased external demand uncertainty. Investment in downstream consumer goods manufacturing generally declined more, with external cost transmission and weak domestic consumption demand being the main drags. Industrial upgrading, supply chain security, and policy support will continue to support manufacturing investment. However, affected by increasing pressure from slowing external demand, rising costs for midstream and downstream sectors, and still weak endogenous momentum from real estate and consumption, manufacturing investment is likely to remain at low levels in the short term.
Infrastructure investment continued to decline, with local infrastructure being a significant drag, while new types of infrastructure became the main support. From January to April, infrastructure investment increased by 4.9% year-on-year, down 4.0 percentage points from January-March, showing the largest marginal decline among the three major investment categories, and its supporting role for overall investment weakened. The decline in growth is mainly due to two reasons: First, the pace of special bond issuance slowed in April, reducing fiscal fund support for infrastructure. Second, the support effects from front-loaded project starts at the beginning of the year and existing policies continued to weaken. By sector, infrastructure investment led by local governments approached negative growth, while aviation transportation and computing-related new infrastructure construction became the main supports. For example, from January to April, investment in road transport and public facilities management grew by -2.9% and 0.9% respectively, while aviation transportation grew by 27.3% year-on-year. Looking ahead, supported by accelerated issuance and use of special bonds, increased scale of new policy financial tools, and the implementation of "15th Five-Year Plan" major projects, infrastructure investment is expected to continue playing a leading role, showing a moderate recovery trend. Structurally, digital and intelligent transformation of traditional infrastructure, new infrastructure like computing networks, and safety and resilience enhancement projects will become key focus areas.
The decline in real estate investment widened, with land acquisition forming a drag. From January to April, real estate development investment decreased by 13.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 2.5 percentage points from January-March. Over the same period, the decline in construction area only widened by 0.4 percentage points to 12.1%. Combined with the明显回升 in PPI growth recently, this reflects that the drag from land acquisition costs on real estate investment has strengthened. Real estate investment is expected to continue in a volatile bottoming phase. First, the contraction trend in resident home purchase demand slightly eased. From January to April, commercial housing sales area decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, and commercial housing sales value decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with the declines narrowing by 0.2 and 2.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month, indicating some support from the traditional "Golden March, Silver April" season. Second, real estate inventory destocking pressure remains high. The year-on-year decline in commercial housing area for sale widened to -0.5%, and the inventory-sales ratio increased by 0.1 times from March to 11.2 times, remaining at historically high levels. Third, housing prices continued their declining trend. In April, the month-on-month change in the new commercial residential price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities was -0.2%, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.1 percentage points. Fourth, leading indicators continued weak. From January to April, sources of funds for real estate development decreased by 18.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.1 percentage points. In April, the year-on-year decline in land transaction area (TTM) for 100 large and medium-sized cities widened by 1.6 percentage points to -9.6%, showing that real estate enterprises show no signs of stabilization in financing, land acquisition, or sales, indicating that real estate investment is still in the process of finding a bottom. Market stabilization still requires further policy support.
(4) Exports: AI Chains and High-End Manufacturing are Core Drivers From January to April 2026, imports and exports increased by 23.6% and 14.5% respectively, both within high growth ranges since 2021, showing characteristics of "export resilience, even stronger imports." In April alone, imports and exports grew by 25.3% and 14.1% respectively. The export recovery mainly stemmed from four factors: First, a lower base was not the main reason. In April 2025, exports grew by 8.0%, down 4.2 percentage points from the previous month that year, indicating a lower base. However, the two-year compound growth rate for April this year, after removing base effects, still reached 11.0%, 3.8 percentage points higher than March,表明基数降低不是主要原因。 Second, export growth to major trading partners rebounded quickly. In April, exports to the US grew by 11.3%,大幅回升37.8% from March. Exports to ASEAN, the EU, and BRICS countries also showed strong growth, increasing by 8.4, 4.8, and 11.0 percentage points respectively from the previous month. Third, the export structure continued to optimize, with AI chains and high-end manufacturing as core drivers. In April, mechanical and electrical products accounted for 63.8% of exports, growing by 20.3%. Integrated circuit export value grew by 100.1% year-on-year that month. Automatic data processing equipment, high-tech products, automobiles, and others also grew in the 30%-50% range, contributing over half to overall export growth. Fourth, the global manufacturing PMI rebounded to a relatively high level of 52.6. The recovery in external demand, coupled with stockpiling demand amid Middle East geopolitical disturbances, jointly supported exports.
Looking at the year ahead, China's exports are expected to maintain strong resilience, with full-year growth projected around 4-5%, likely showing a pattern of high growth earlier and stability later. First, strong industrial competitiveness and accelerating structural upgrading have made mechanical/electrical and high-tech products the "main engine." In terms of export share, mechanical/electrical and high-tech products accounted for 63.5% and 27.9% respectively from January to April. In terms of export growth, they grew by 21.1% and 31.4% respectively during this period, 6.6 and 16.9 percentage points higher than overall export growth. Second, export market diversification and product structure optimization. Although exports to the US decreased by 10.2% year-on-year, exports to "non-US markets" such as ASEAN, the EU, Africa, BRICS countries, and Belt and Road countries maintained high growth around 20%. In terms of products, new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and other high-tech products showed strong momentum, and the supporting role of digital and green trade significantly increased. In terms of chains, China is deeply embedded in the Asian semiconductor supply chain, which accounts for 62% of global AI trade, and is expected to continuously benefit from industrial dividends. From an external catalyst perspective, conflicts in the Middle East not only accelerated the transition of global energy security from "consensus" to "implementation" but also directly boosted export demand for China's "new three" products. Third, slowing global trade combined with Middle East geopolitical risks exert downward pressure on China's exports. According to WTO forecasts, global merchandise trade volume growth will plummet from 4.6% to 1.9% in 2026. If Middle East conflicts push oil prices higher and persist long-term, this growth could further drop to 1.4%, making the external demand environment for China's exports more complex.
Inflation: PPI Rose More Than Expected, Year-on-Year Growth May Continue to Increase CPI: Services and Energy Supported the Increase, Food and Core Commodities Were Drags. In April, CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate widening by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Core CPI grew by 1.2% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Structurally,超预期上涨 in service and energy prices were the main supports, while food and core commodities were drags. Specifically, the month-on-month CPI change was 0.4 percentage points higher than the average of the past ten years, with energy price increases being the main reason for the超季节性上行. Service prices were also 0.2 percentage points higher than the average for the same period over the past ten years, providing significant拉动. In contrast, food prices were 0.6 percentage points lower than seasonal trends, and core commodity prices were also weaker than seasonal (core CPI month-on-month was flat compared to historical同期), mainly affected by ample pork supply, weakening effects of trade-in policies, and falling international gold prices.
PPI: Oil Price Shock Led to a Rebound Far Exceeding Market Expectations. In April, PPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year,大幅提高2.3 percentage points from the previous month. Month-on-month, it increased by 1.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from March, marking the first time in nearly four years it exceeded 1%. Input pressure from high oil prices was the core factor for PPI大大超出市场预期.据测算, the crude oil and chemical industry chain (oil and gas extraction, petroleum and coal processing, chemicals, textiles, rubber and plastics) collectively contributed 1.41% to the month-on-month PPI increase, accounting for over 80% of the contribution. Meanwhile, driven by AI computing demand and the ongoing推进 of "anti-involution" policies in related industries, prices in computer and communication, coal mining and washing, and electrical machinery industries continued positive month-on-month growth. Additionally, prices in non-ferrous metal-related industries, although declining month-on-month, remained positive. Notably, prices in most midstream and downstream industries remained sluggish, fluctuating around zero month-on-month, reflecting that price transmission from upstream to midstream and downstream is still not smooth.
Looking at the year ahead, driven by "low base + supply clearing + weak domestic demand recovery," the direction of price recovery is clear, but the short-term recovery slope still depends on the US-Iran situation. Against the backdrop of failed US-Iran negotiations and the封锁 of the Strait of Hormuz exceeding expectations, CPI and PPI in May are projected to grow by approximately 1.5% and 4.0% respectively. In terms of节奏, the PPI上升斜率 will be steepest in the second quarter, likely followed by a period of high-level fluctuations as supply修复需要时间. Close attention should be paid to the subsequent evolution of US-Israel-Iran conflicts, changes in the oil price center, and their transmission to costs and profit squeeze for midstream and downstream industries.
Finance: Real Economy Credit Demand Weak, Fiscal Support Needs to Accelerate In April, both new AFRE and new loans were significantly below market expectations, with loans turning negative again. Meanwhile, the M2 growth rate increased against the trend, and non-bank deposits continued high growth, indicating funds flowed more towards financial markets, while credit expansion in the real economy still faced obstacles. Weak real estate consumption, a slow pace of fiscal support, and the impact of external geopolitical disturbances on confidence were the three main drags. Specifically: AFRE: Increased less than expected year-on-year, with weak private demand and slow fiscal pace resonating. New AFRE in April was 624.5 billion yuan, significantly lower than the market expectation of 1.43 trillion yuan, and also lower than the same period last year and the average of the past five years. Structurally, RMB loans (AFRE口径) and off-balance-sheet undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased year-on-year by 489 billion yuan and increased the reduction by 249 billion yuan respectively, being the main drags, reflecting that the issue of insufficient private sector demand remains prominent. Government bonds decreased by 68.8 billion yuan year-on-year, continuing the少增 trend after a decrease of over 300 billion yuan year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating that the strength of front-loaded fiscal support is明显弱于去年. Corporate bond financing increased by 218 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to lower corporate bond issuance costs under ample liquidity providing some替代 for credit, and also related to policy support for direct financing. Looking ahead, these constraints persist in the short term, and AFRE growth still faces some downward pressure.
Credit: Turned negative again rarely, with both household and enterprise financing意愿不强. New RMB loans in April were -10 billion yuan, turning negative again since July last year (the fourth time since records began), decreasing by 290 billion yuan year-on-year.同时, the credit structure also deteriorated.除了票据融资冲量转正外, new household short-term loans, medium- and long-term loans, and new enterprise short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans all turned negative. The comprehensive weakening of credit背后, mainly stems from the共振 of the following factors: First, household willingness for home purchases, consumption, and taking on debt进一步走弱. In April, new household loans turned negative for the first time in history. Household loan repayment规模甚至已经高于 new增加的贷款规模. Under multiple constraints such as unstable employment expectations, relatively high debt pressure, and price factors削弱实际购买力, restoring household confidence remains a long-term task. Second, external uncertainty and slow fiscal support dragged down corporate credit expansion. In April, medium- and long-term enterprise loans decreased by 660 billion yuan year-on-year more, a significant drag. This is related both to external imported cost pressures and uncertainty making corporate investment and financing more cautious, and also源于财政及准财政工具使用节奏偏慢 (e.g., PSL net increase was 0 in Feb-Mar, -200 billion yuan in April), leading to偏少 in配套信贷需求.此外, the透支效应 of the first quarter's strong start and the替代效应 of corporate bonds are also important reasons.
Money: M2 Growth Rate Increased Against the Trend, Trend of Deposits Moving to Capital Markets Strengthened. In April, the M2 growth rate increased against the trend by 0.1 percentage points to 8.6%, mainly related to RMB appreciation expectations推高结汇意愿, generating派生存款. Structurally, household deposits decreased by 550 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 899 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a strengthening trend of funds moving towards asset management products and capital markets. The M1 growth rate in April decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.0%, mainly due to a larger decline in the growth rate of corporate demand deposits, related to weak real estate and slow fiscal expenditure. The negative剪刀差 between M1 and M2 growth rates widened slightly by 0.2 percentage points to -3.6% in April. In the future,受M1基数抬升较多影响, it may continue to widen.
Looking ahead,受高基数, external geopolitical disturbances, and other drags, AFRE, M1, and M2 growth rates in the coming months still face some downward pressure,增强 the necessity for coordinated front-loaded fiscal and monetary support. It is expected that the投放速度 of fiscal and quasi-fiscal tools will accelerate. Monetary policy will maintain an accommodative stance, keeping liquidity ample, with more emphasis on the精准发力 and协同创新 of structural tools. The timing for RRR and interest rate cuts has been pushed back.
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