Orient Securities has issued a research report forecasting that GEELY AUTO's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025–2027 will reach RMB 17.041 billion, RMB 20.604 billion, and RMB 24.318 billion, respectively. Using an average 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times for comparable companies, the firm has set a target price of RMB 20.79, equivalent to HK$23.37 (assuming HK$1 = RMB 0.8898), and maintains a "Buy" rating.
The brokerage highlighted the following key points: GEELY AUTO's January sales performance slightly exceeded industry expectations. Total vehicle sales for the month reached 270,200 units, up 1.3% year-on-year. Despite a transitional policy environment, the phase-out of new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidies, and staggered implementation of replacement subsidies in certain regions leading to cautious consumer sentiment—compounded by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday—the China Passenger Car Association estimated that retail sales of passenger vehicles reached approximately 1.8 million units in January, a modest 0.3% increase from the previous year. New energy passenger vehicle sales were estimated at around 800,000 units, up roughly 7.5% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, GEELY AUTO's sales performance was relatively strong.
The company’s "dual-track" strategy focusing on both internal combustion engine and new energy vehicles has solidified its domestic sales foundation, while overseas sales have grown significantly. In January, Geely brand sales reached 217,400 units, up 25.8% month-on-month. Sales of new energy vehicles under the Geely brand totaled 124,300 units, increasing 2.6% year-on-year, while gasoline vehicle sales reached 145,900 units, up 0.2% year-on-year and 76.8% month-on-month. Notably, the Galaxy series sold 83,000 units, and the China Star series sold 134,400 units, rising 2.5% year-on-year and 86.5% month-on-month. On January 20, Geely launched the Galaxy V900, a flagship MPV priced between RMB 269,800 and RMB 329,800. The company plans to introduce approximately 10 new models in 2026. The brokerage believes that the expansion of the Galaxy product lineup and the continued presence of gasoline vehicles have helped mitigate the impact of reduced new energy subsidies, enhancing the company’s sales resilience.
Overseas sales surged in January, with exports reaching 60,500 units, up 121.2% year-on-year and 50.1% month-on-month, indicating the success of earlier international expansion efforts. On January 15, the Zeekr 007 GT was launched in Europe at a price of RMB 374,000–467,000, significantly higher than in the domestic market. On January 23, the Geely EX2 model debuted in Indonesia, where it is being locally produced. Lynk & Co and Zeekr brands have also entered the market, supporting synergistic growth.
The Zeekr brand’s upmarket strategy has shown results, with January sales reaching 23,900 units, up 99.7% year-on-year. Lynk & Co sold 28,900 units during the same period. The Zeekr 9X has been the best-selling large SUV in the RMB 500,000+ segment for two consecutive months, while the Zeekr 009 has led the RMB 400,000+ MPV segment for two years. The next major model, the Zeekr 8X, is set to launch in the first half of the year. Positioned below the 9X, it aims to cover the full-size premium SUV segment and is expected to feature a design language similar to the 9X, along with a 6C ultra-fast charging battery, the浩瀚 AI digital chassis, and a 48V active stabilizer bar.
On January 6, at CES 2026, Geely unveiled the WAM World Behavior Model and the new-generation千里浩瀚 G-ASD system, which has already been introduced in 16 Zeekr and Lynk & Co models. Pending regulatory approval, the company plans to roll out high-speed L3 and low-speed L4 autonomous driving functions this year and begin Robotaxi operations. The brokerage expects that the upmarket success of the Zeekr brand, combined with strategic and scale synergies from Geely and Zeekr integration, will become increasingly evident.
Risks include potential underperformance in sales for the Geely, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr brands, as well as challenges in cost control.
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