New developments have emerged concerning the Strait of Hormuz. During today's Asian trading session, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude futures dropping over 4% at one point, and Brent crude futures falling nearly 3%. On the news front, the International Maritime Organization has scheduled a special council meeting at its London headquarters from the 18th to the 19th to discuss responses to the current impacts on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas. Additionally, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Brussels for emergency consultations with European officials regarding navigation and subsequent security measures for the strait.
Furthermore, according to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude inventories increased by 6.56 million barrels for the week ending March 13, far exceeding the Reuters survey expectation of 380,000 barrels. Concurrently, Iraq signed an agreement to resume crude oil exports via Turkey, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, which further pressured oil prices downward. A recently published report from J.P. Morgan also indicated that shipping traffic through the strait is sparse and "overwhelmingly linked to Iran," suggesting Iran is allowing some vessels to pass after completing verification checks. Data from shipping consultancy Kpler shows that currently only about 2 tankers per day on average are transiting the strait, compared to roughly 100 before the conflict.
Regarding the Middle East situation, reports on the 18th indicated that Iran launched missiles carrying cluster warheads toward the Tel Aviv area in Israel, in retaliation for the killing of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani. Air raid sirens were activated in Jerusalem and multiple locations across Israel in the early hours of the 18th, with the Israeli Defense Forces confirming they had detected incoming Iranian missiles.
As of 18:15 Beijing time on March 18, WTI crude futures were down 1.5% for the day at $94.1 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fell 0.21% to $103.2 per barrel. The International Maritime Organization's special council meeting in London will focus on addressing the effects on regional shipping, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times reported on March 17, citing IMO Secretary-General Dominguez, that naval escorts cannot "100% guarantee" the safety of ships passing through the strait and risks remain. Military assistance is "neither a long-term nor a sustainable solution."
On March 17, UN Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq emphasized the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that the key to restoring its safe operation lies in ending the conflict. He confirmed that Secretary-General Guterres will engage in urgent talks in Brussels with European officials concerning navigation and security assurances for the strait.
Julius Baer Group believes the current high level of oil prices is unlikely to persist. The safe passage of vessels "friendly to Iran" is a dynamic worth monitoring. Meanwhile, OCBC Group Research suggests Brent crude prices could remain around $100 per barrel until mid-2026. The U.S.-Iran conflict has entered its third week with no reliable pathway to de-escalation. Furthermore, supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained, and no U.S. partners have responded to former President Trump's call for joint military action to reopen the strait.
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to extreme lows as the Middle East conflict enters its third week. While sporadic vessels still pass through, transit resembles a "controlled release." J.P. Morgan's report notes the strait's shipping is sparse and largely Iran-related, with Iran apparently permitting some ships after verification. Analysts wrote, "Effectively, this creates a situation where the strait is not formally closed, but transit increasingly depends on political understanding with Tehran."
Ship-tracking data indicates that the few authorized vessels are abandoning standard routes, instead opting for channels between Larak and Qeshm islands, sailing close to the Iranian coastline. The report suggests, "This is not a standard route and reflects a process aimed at verifying vessel ownership and cargo, allowing passage for ships unaffiliated with the U.S. and its allies." For instance, some India-bound ships received safe passage approval after their respective governments communicated with Iran. The Indian LPG carrier Nanda Devi arrived at Vadinar port on March 17 after being permitted through the strait.
Kpler data highlights the drastic reduction, with only about 2 tankers transiting daily on average now, versus nearly 100 pre-conflict. Approximately 400 tankers remain idled in waters near the strait. Faced with the blockage, Trump urged allies to deploy naval ships to help reopen the strait, proposing a multinational naval force to escort commercial vessels. Analysts widely believe the bottleneck for escorts is not the availability of warships, but whether Iran's low-cost deterrent capabilities can be neutralized.
Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, stated, "Securing the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks. We will not be willing to send merchant vessels, or even escorted convoys, until we eliminate Iran's layered asymmetric capabilities: mines, fast-attack craft, submarines, and drones." Geographic conditions amplify escort challenges. The strait narrows to less than 30 miles, placing shipping lanes within effective range of missiles, drones, and small boats.
John Bradford, a former U.S. naval officer and co-founder of the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, noted that escort ships can only provide protection within a limited radius, meaning the number of vessels that can be safeguarded in a single pass is extremely limited. Torbjorn Soltvedt, Chief Middle East Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, added that as long as Iran maintains a "sufficient threat," it can render the route's risk "unacceptable" for shipping without formally blockading it.
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