Sinolink Securities released a research report stating that in the field of commercial space, SpaceX has become a global benchmark, with Elon Musk planning a blueprint for space computing power. China's "15th Five-Year Plan" explicitly lists aerospace as a key strategic emerging industry cluster, with recent intensive launches of reusable rockets and accelerated deployment of satellite constellations like StarNet and Qianfan. Whether viewed through overseas parallels or domestic catalysts, the commercial space industry has reached a singularity moment.
**Overseas Parallels: SpaceX & Starlink – Core Investment Logic for A-Share Commercial Space**
1. **SpaceX: Not a Traditional Aerospace Manufacturer but a Monopoly in Space Logistics & Infrastructure** SpaceX has built a self-reinforcing commercial loop: leveraging Falcon 9’s unmatched launch cost advantage to create the world’s largest space communication network—Starlink—and using the massive cash flow from both to fund humanity’s most ambitious engineering project, Starship.
SpaceX’s core competitiveness stems from deep integration across three dimensions: - **Cost Barrier**: With full first-stage reusability, Falcon 9’s internal marginal launch cost has dropped to ~$15M, achieving ~68% gross margin after five reuses. This cost structure grants SpaceX pricing power over traditional defense giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin. The barrier lies not in patents but in manufacturing and operational scale—competitors cannot replicate SpaceX’s annual 100+ launches’ data and supply chain efficiency. - **Manufacturing Barrier**: Over 80% of components, from engines to flight software, are developed in-house. Vertical integration enables rapid iteration and cost control, transforming rocket production from artisanal to assembly-line. - **Client Barrier**: SpaceX’s relationship with the U.S. government has evolved into strategic symbiosis. NASA and DoD contracts effectively subsidize Starship R&D, while the U.S. gains independent, low-cost, cutting-edge space access.
2. **Starlink: SpaceX’s Cash Cow & Growth Engine, a Satellite SaaS Platform with Absolute Moat Protection** Starlink’s flywheel effect is formidable: more users → more revenue → more satellites → better coverage → more users. Competitors’ catch-up window is closing fast.
- **Launch Advantage**: While rivals pay ~$70M per launch, Starlink pays SpaceX’s internal marginal cost (~$15M), enabling unmatched deployment speed in the capital-intensive LEO race. - **Business Model Evolution**: From B2C (rural broadband) to B2B (high-ARPU aviation/maritime) and B2B2C (direct-to-cell partnerships), Starlink’s TAM expands like a "three-stage rocket," potentially reaching billions of users. - **Tech Edge**: Industrialized "flat-panel" satellite design and laser inter-satellite links enable global coverage with millisecond latency, creating an unbeatable UX for military/premium clients.
**A-Share Commercial Space Investment Logic** Mirroring SpaceX’s launch monopoly and Starlink’s monetization path, the core thesis is: **embrace the constellation infrastructure boom and focus on high-barrier component suppliers**. China is at a pre-deployment phase akin to SpaceX’s 2018-2020. With G60 Qianfan and StarNet entering intensive launches, satellite manufacturing is shifting from lab-customized to assembly-line production. Before reusable rockets mature, alpha returns will come from high-value, high-barrier satellite subsystems (e.g., power, communication, attitude control).
**Domestic Catalysts: Reusable Rockets & Policy Tailwinds** 1. **Demand-Supply Gap**: China’s annual launch demand exceeds 1,000 satellites, but state capacity meets only ~100, creating a rigid market for private rockets. 2. **Tech Breakthroughs**: - **Rockets**: Liquid reusable rockets (e.g., Zhuque-3, Long March 12A) are nearing core cost-cutting tech, with密集 launches expected by 2025-2026. - **Satellites**: Hainan’s mega-factory (1,000 satellites/year) will slash costs. Limited LEO orbits accelerate production. - **Space Computing**: Plans for multi-gigawatt data centers in 700-800km orbits align with Musk’s vision. 3. **Policy Support**: The "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes aerospace, with new regulations and a dedicated Commercial Space Division. A full产业链 (satellites, rockets, launch sites, ground systems, applications) is emerging.
**Investment Strategy** - **Phase 1 (Now)**: Rocket/satellite core parts (3D printing, specialty materials, T/R components). - **Phase 2 (Mid-term)**: Ground infrastructure, user terminals, operations.
**Risks**: Key personnel risk; Starship delays; geopolitics; cost inflation.
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