Today, the three major A-share indices surged with amplified volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index climbed above the 4100-point mark. The total trading volume for the two markets expanded compared to the previous session, exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating a highly active trading sentiment among investors. The recent annual work conference held by the central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy, alongside intensified counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Key focuses for this year's monetary policy include stimulating domestic demand and optimizing supply; notably, compared to last year, the stable operation of financial markets has been incorporated as a consideration. Looking ahead, while the economy remains in a phase of weak recovery, monetary policy is expected to actively coordinate with fiscal measures that are being deployed proactively. From the perspective of the domestic equity market, the strengthening of the Renminbi and expectations of domestic deposit relocations during the first week of the new year have rapidly boosted market risk appetite. Following the swift index gains, a period of consolidation may be necessary in the short term. Structurally, given that the market is currently in an earnings vacuum period, thematic investments are likely to remain the dominant trend temporarily. Opportunities may be found in themes driven by policy support, such as new quality productive forces and future industries.
On January 9, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.9% year-on-year, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; on a monthly basis, it increased by 0.2%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points. For the full year of 2025, the national CPI remained flat compared to the previous year. The industrial producer出厂价格 declined by 2.6%, while industrial producer purchase prices dropped by 3.0%.
Brief Commentary: In December, policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption continued to show effects, coupled with increased consumer demand ahead of the New Year holiday. The stability of the full-year CPI indicates that domestic consumption demand remains fundamentally steady, providing room for monetary policy to maintain its accommodative stance. The narrowed year-on-year decline in December's PPI may be attributed to factors such as ongoing improvements in supply-demand dynamics and the cultivation of new quality productive forces, leading to improved profit expectations for industrial enterprises, particularly in mid-upstream raw material sectors. Continued monitoring of this data is necessary; if the improving trend persists, it could provide fundamental support for the valuation recovery of strongly cyclical sectors like industrial metals and basic chemicals.
Data released this month by the World Gold Council shows that, calculated using gold prices at the end of 2025, the total value of official gold reserves held by non-US central banks is estimated to be approximately $3.93 trillion. This figure has, for the first time, exceeded the total scale of US Treasury holdings by these countries (about $3.88 trillion), marking a milestone where gold has surpassed US Treasuries to become the largest reserve asset globally for the first time since 1996.
Brief Commentary: This landmark event carries profound symbolic significance. It reflects a long-term trend of central banks accelerating the diversification of their foreign exchange reserve assets against a backdrop of rising global geopolitical uncertainties and some wavering confidence in US dollar-denominated assets. This structural shift provides solid support for long-term gold demand, reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against global currency credit risks and inflation. However, with short-term gold prices already at historically high levels, potential volatility risks warrant attention, and盲目追高 is not advisable.
On January 9, the three major A-share indices closed higher. By the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 4120.43 points, up 0.92%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14120.15 points, rising 1.15%; the ChiNext Index reached 3327.81 points, gaining 0.77%; and the STAR 100 Index closed at 1611.28 points, surging 2.24%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, only the banking and non-bank financial sectors declined, falling by 0.44% and 0.20% respectively. Media, comprehensive, and defense military industries led the gains, rising by 5.31%, 3.60%, and 3.29% respectively. A total of 3766 stocks advanced, while 1289 stocks declined.
The total market turnover reached 3152.596 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading session. The balance of margin lending and securities lending closed at 2620.609 billion yuan yesterday, also higher than the prior day's figure.
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